Prediction: No Public Option, Stupak Out, Triggered Medicare Buy-In

[Bolo Boffin]

That's what I think is about to happen in the Senate. They won't actually lower the age for Medicare, and they won't actually go as far as allowing a lower buy-in age right up front.

But they'll allow it to be triggered in if insurance companies don't get their act together.

Actually, the trigger will be so loose as to be worthless in the long run. It won't ever be triggered, just like other triggers have never been activated.

But it will be enough to get Nelson (and maybe even Stupak!) to drop the abortion amendments. Medicare is already subject to Hyde, so the Stupak amendment wouldn't be needed there. Holy Joe can claim credit for tanking the public option, so he'll be on board. You might even get Snowe on board. And Democrats can tantalize enough people on the left with expanding Medicare to get the legislation passed.

Anyway, that's what I think will happen. Feel free to excoriate me if you think I'm wrong or excoriate whoever if you think I might be right.

[tritsofme]

1. Stupak is still a big deal in the exchange.

Where individuals would receive federal subsidies to assist in buying insurance.

That is assuming the exchange and subsidy system isn't scrapped.

[Bolo Boffin]

2. Without a public option, Stupak's amendment doesn't matter.

Hmm, wait, I thought the only problem was the public option funding abortion.

Well, that's a large part of it, anyhow. ugh.

[laughingliberal]

4. Stupak is a problem in the entire exchange, not just public option

The reason being is that people at certain income levels will get subsidies to assist with the premiums.

[OHdem10]

3. With all the cuts in Medicare exactly what will be covered???

What do they plan to do about the fact that in every state,
more and more Doctors refuse to take Medicare Patients???