My prediction is that NO health bill will be passed and it will go the way of Clinton's plan.

[Kablooie]

And health costs will continue to rise excessively.

And more and more people will lose their savings, their homes, and their lives as a result.

And the corporations will become even more arrogant and demanding.

And the Republicans will rejoice as having won by doing nothing.

And they will use this failure as a talking point against Democrats.

And it will increase their votes in the next elections.

And Obama's hold on the leadership of this country will begin to waver.



Democrats, when left on their own, self destruct even faster than the Republicans did.

[stray cat]

1. If so - those on DU who say the bill is worthless better not complain

[WI_DEM]

4. agreed.

[SIMPLYB1980]

9. Damn right.

[niyad]

11. so a bad bill that legally mandates all the things the OP said is worse than what is going on now?

how so?

[Hawkowl]

61. Yeah we should all STFU

What the hell are you talking about? Not passing anything is better than passing a bill where everyone is required to buy health insurance with no price control mechanism? But letting the existing no price control system murder millions is not acceptable.

Obama and congress need to pass insurance reform that controls costs NOT access.

I'll complain and scream and throw Obama under the goddamn bus unless he does what he was elected to do.

[arcadian]

2. Yup, and an entire year of a President's administration wasted.

[dysfunctional press]

65. not completely- he bailed out wall st., didn't he...?

that's gotta count for...something?

[customerserviceguy]

68. Just half a year

He was going gangbusters until the summer recess. Besides, the next two elections rise or fall depending on how well Congress and the President did in properly anticipating just how much stimulus to apply to the economy. If that fails, then whatever happened on health care will be meaningless.

Besides, every few days, the proposal gets watered down just a little bit more. And we're miles away from the conference committee, who even knows if they will come up with something that is even remotely recognizable as reform?

Frankly, I don't give a damn if this rapidly deteriorating carcass of a concept gets passed or not, I'd really rather try again in 2013 with something that could take place immediately, as opposed to this crazy quilt of meaningless legislation. We might see some leadership from the President when he doesn't have to worry about reelection.

[napi21]

3. I disagree, but we'll see.

[TwilightGardener]

5. That might happen. Hope not.

[WI_DEM]

6. I can't see this. Obama has invested so much of this year on Health Care

I just have to think we'll get a bill in the end.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

12. except June, July, August, and September, when he

did pretty much nothing.

[Aramchek]

29. you don't know what he was doing. why pretend that you do?

[bdamomma]

44. yea, hoping we get something, but those insurance companies

are greedy bastards.

[Ozymanithrax]

7. You should also add...

Republicans will possibly win the house...

If so, they will initiate a series of investigations for the impeachment of President Obama.

[calico1]

8. Unfortunately, I agree.

The Democrats in power that actually have the balls to stand up for anything and not back down I can count on one hand. And the President doesn't seem to be one of them.

I think that whatever happens with health care reform, we will still be screwed.

I am so disgusted...I really am.

[jtrockville]

10. Then we can start from scratch with single-payer ON THE TABLE.

Have the CBO score it.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

13. not with this congress, or this president.

HCR is DOA.

[Lasher]

14. They've already done that.

CBO Single Payer Study from 1993

[jtrockville]

27. Perhaps the score should be updated for this millenium.

I can't imagine using numbers that old to justify anything. Or for that matter, I can't imagine using numbers that old to rule anything out either. We need a current assessment.

[Lasher]

38. Well that was a point I was trying to make.

Results of the prior study are encouraging. The lack of a similar but more recent CBO study is an indictment against the Democratic Congressional leadership.

[jtrockville]

55. Yes. Agreed.

[Aramchek]

30. in 20 years, maybe

you really need to take a crash course in how American Politics work

[jtrockville]

35. "CHANGE" is this administration's (supposed) hallmark

"Because it's always been that way" shouln't be an obstacle. If we can't apply "CHANGE" to this situation, what's the point? Was it just a slogan?

[Aramchek]

37. the Bill will pass, and it will effect change.

your idea would accomplish nothing.

[jtrockville]

56. My idea would accomplish health care reform.

I can't say the same about the current bill.

[liberalpragmatist]

71. Every single time health care reform has been defeated, gotten a worst bill...

... next time around.

Truman's plan was single-payer. Then that failed. Then Kennedy and Johnson didn't even attempt universal care, settling for Medicare and Medicaid. Then Nixon proposed a highly-regulated hybrid system of HMOs plus a large wraparound public plan. That failed. Then Carter proposed incremental solutions that went nowhere. Then the Clintons proposed managed care "alliances." And that failed. And now, we're expecting something similar to what John Chafee (R-RI) proposed in 1993.

Why on earth with that history do you think we'll magically get single-payer next time around?

[MadHound]

15. Given what this "reform" has become, frankly that would be a good thing

Kill this bill and start again from the beginning. If a true, single payer plan can't be put on the table, then at least put a strong public option in the new bill.

At this point the bill deserves to die, it will do more harm than good at this point.

[Laelth]

25. +1 n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[timeforpeace]

16. The next President who runs on HCR better have a plan in hand instead of handing the job off to

Congress, or his wife.

[TwilightGardener]

19. It has to be handed off to Congress, no matter who is in the WH.

[timeforpeace]

21. The JOB was handed off, not a HCR plan which many may have assumed he had worked out beforehand.

[TwilightGardener]

22. He can set forth whatever he wants. But it must be legislated by Congress--

and they will change it. Or not pass it at all.

[Inuca]

41. ANd he DID specify

quite clearly what are the main issues he wants covered AND, whether the critics agree or disagree, these issues ARE covered in the two versions of the bill. The finger pointers know too little of what they are talking about or are simply entranced with the shape of their ever so delightful finger. Incidentally, if I sound pissed, it is because I AM (not with you, obviously :-)). I do not like AT ALL the way things have been going on with HCR these last few days and I am starting to get seriously apprehensive about the final outcome.

[TwilightGardener]

43. Me too--about being pissed and apprehensive.

I am no longer sure that the final product will be worthwhile (feels like watching a slow-motion train wreck sometimes), but we are at the mercy of Congress for whatever can actually get passed.

[Inuca]

47. I am not sure of anything, BUT

I still think that the final product (if there is going to be one :-() is going to be for the better (see my post below). It may be very far from what was hoped for, but still better. Imperfect bill scan be improved upon in time. NO BILL at this point would be IMHO a HUGE setback, not ony for Obama and his agenda but for the fate of health care reform in general. God knows when somebody will have the guts to tackle it again!

[TwilightGardener]

54. I am inclined to agree--as long there is SOME improvement or benefit

for those who were shut out of health insurance altogether, or couldn't afford the premiums. It would be really bad to end up with nothing at all--that would be a total defeat both politically and socially.

[Aramchek]

31. there won't be another. Obama is going to sign this Bill.

[Cleita]

17. We may have to go another route if our government fails us.

A workable health establishment for everyone doesn't necessarily need to be run and overseen by the federal government. We may have to work through our state or even local government. I would like to see municipalities and counties pass laws regulating health insurance companies. They should demand that they be non-profit for one and that they have no deductibles, no copays and no limits on the care a person might need. That should run them out of business in their jurisdiction. Then maybe alternative health coverage can be offered in those places, like they do in San Francisco. It might not be as good as a national health plan in the beginning but it's an idea that could spread and eventually run the parasitic health insurers out of businesses paving the way for real national health care.

[razorman]

18. I'm afraid you are probably right. The bill has only gotten this far

by the skin of its teeth. Even if it makes it out of the Senate, it still has a long way to go.

[DarthPortnoy]

20. Not to worry,

Reid has the Nuclear Option. This WILL pass and allprogressives that are sitting on the fence with the conservatives will be hung out to dry in the 2010 election. We ARE on the right side of history on this on and we WILL prevail. When this passes, PResident Obama will be looked upon as the one President in the past 100 years that was actually able to get this historic bill passed.

And when it does pass, the Conservatives and their Moose eye eating protegees will be all washed up.

[rudy23]

23. It seems like what the bill actually does has become irrelevant to Obama apologists.

I think it's morally unthinkable for a government to mandate that we buy into the insurance racket, without regulating them in the least.

[pampango]

24. At least the repubs will be happy. They'll be able to take credit for it and blast ineffectual Dems,

who can't pass legislation even when the have the presidency and large majorities in both houses of congress.

That's the stuff repub 2010 dreams are made of.

[Javaman]

26. I think we share the same crystal ball. nt

[Aramchek]

32. too bad it's filled with fecal matter

[Javaman]

36. Yes, I scary variation on the snow globe. nt

[juno jones]

62. Or a very nasty magic 8-ball.

Every side is inscribed "Sorry, You're Screwed". Except for the one that says "Answer hazy, try again later".

[Aramchek]

28. my prediction is that when the Bill passes, you will find some other reason to bitch about it

[Vinca]

33. MSNBC just reported that the POTUS has told Harry Reid

to make a deal with Lieberbush. That means no extended Medicare and no public option. What was this all about again? We began with the notion that all Americans might be able to get affordable health care, but we're ending up with all Americans being served up to big insurance like sacrificial lambs on a platter.

[Aramchek]

39. MSNBC is parroting a Politico report based on some 'Official'

How many times will people buy these?
Politico is trash.

[Inuca]

42. Much as I HATE the idea

of giving in to Lieberman's blackmail, this has NOT been about extending Medicare nor having a public option. Both were/are ways to achieve (or at least get closer) to an end, NOT an end in themselves. Even without either of these present, there are still ways to get a bill that will improve the current situation a lot. Insurance companies can be much more tightly regulated (Rockefeller has an amendment that would help in this direction), it's still possible to have meaningful competition even without a PO, etc.

Not getting a bill passed is MUCh worse than having a weakened bill, even a significantly weakened one. And assholes like Lieberman, Ben Nelson, etc. know it and take full advantage of it :mad: :mad:

[bdamomma]

46. oh I would like to see these insurance companies just suck it up

and do something for the American people instead of them being plagued by greed.

[TwilightGardener]

50. They have quite the racket going, don't they? They don't produce anything, they don't

provide any useful services--they just take everyone's money and then try to find ways to avoid paying it out. Like a casino. (On edit--casinos do offer entertainment--so they do actually provide more than insurance co's).

[undeterred]

34. President One Term Obama

That's what we'll call him.

[Aramchek]

40. Until he takes the oath again on Jan. 20, 2013

[GreenArrow]

45. My prediction is that A health bill will be passed and ...

And health costs will continue to rise excessively.

And more and more people will lose their savings, their homes, and their lives as a result.

And the corporations will become even more arrogant and demanding.

And the Republicans will rejoice as having won by doing nothing.

And they will use this failure as a talking point against Democrats.

And it will increase their votes in the next elections.

And Obama's hold on the leadership of this country will begin to waver.

[Inuca]

49. Given the content of your message

a more appropriate subject line for it would have been "A helath bill will NOT be passed and..."

[GreenArrow]

58. No, it just means they will pass

a very, very bad bill.

[Inuca]

60. I understood what you meant

I just happen to believe that the very opposite is true.

[GreenArrow]

63. The opposite, meaning that it will be a very, very good bill?

Or a simply a somewhat good bill? Or that it is good to simply pass a bill?

No matter, we'll all know soon enough.

[Recovered Repug]

53. Yep. Anything labeled "Health Care Reform"

regardless how little it has to do with health care or reform will be signed in a heart beat. It will be hailed as a significant first step and the implication that more work will be done "later". When that "later" is will be anyones guess.

[quiller4]

48. I can't see it. Reid will cut a deal to get the votes. He is essential under orders to do just that.

we might not like the deal he cuts but he'll get a bill. He knows his own future hangs in the balance.

[Inuca]

51. Forget about Reid

Whether we like it or not, I think that the future of HCR for the foreseeable future hangs in the balance. I know that many here will disagree, but I truly think that a flawed (mind you, not horrible) bill is better than no bill.

[bdamomma]

52. right now something is better than nothing.

damn these politicians they got theirs and forget about everyone else.

[Inuca]

59. Agree

something > nothing.

[backscatter712]

64. Agreed. Reid understands as much as any Democrat in the Senate that we need A bill.

A bad bill will cause huge problems.

No bill at all will be far, far worse - we'll watch as tens of thousands more die each year because they can't get health care, while Medicare and Medicaid continue to bleed money and a hundred million more people lose their health care.

Ezra Klein (IIRC) said earlier today that a health care bill even without the public option or a Medicare buy-in will save roughly 150,000 lives (that's assuming the 18,000 deaths/yr number) over ten years.

That and the political consequences will mean we lose Congress next year, and we lose all hope of any sort of legislation to deal with everything from global warming to Wall Street to immigration to education.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

57. unfortunately

I think you're right

[BakedAtAMileHigh]

66. No No No It Is 3-Dimensional Chess, Right???

Right????

[rucky]

70. We got 'em right where we want 'em.

or something

[Unvanguard]

67. It's looking very possible. Not most likely, not yet, but very possible.

The crucial element here is a combination of the filibuster and Republican unity. Democrats need to learn to work as a bloc.

[rucky]

69. I don't see the House passing this tripe. n/t

[eridani]

72. If ths bill passes, all that stuff will still happen, only faster n/t