And Now, For Something Completely Different -> Gallup: GOP Losing Lead Among Independents

[WillyT]

Gallup: GOP Losing Lead Among Independents
The Plum Line - Greg Sargent's blog

<snip>

The conventional wisdom for some time has been that Dems are bleeding support among independents, and this claim — based, in fairness, on a number of polls — has become central to GOP predictions of doom for Dems in 2010.

But new polling from Gallup suggests the trend is reversing, and finds that indys are swinging back towards Dems, though the Republicans still hold a narrow lead among them.

Gallup finds that Dems have edged into a small lead in the overall generic ballot matchup, 48%-45%, after having been behind in November, adding:

The major cause of the movement between November and the current poll is the changing preferences of independents. In the latest poll, conducted Dec. 11-13, independent registered voters tilt only slightly toward the Republican candidate, by 44% to 40%. In the November poll, independents’ preference for the Republican candidate was 52% to 30%.

That’s a sizable swing among indys: The GOP has dropped eight points among them, and Dems have gained by 10 points.

Still, Gallup notes, ominously for Dems, that if the current patterns hold, the traditional GOP turnout advantage could give them a real edge come Election Day 2010. That said, the narrative of a mass desertion of Dems by indys because of the Dem big-government agenda may have been premature or fleeting.

<snip>

Link: http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/polling/gallup-gop-losing-lead-among-independents/

I posted one going the other way yesterday: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7216684

:shrug:

[bluestateguy]

1. Good. Freeze that poll, and now no more polls.

nt

[DrDan]

2. "premature"? Probably not. Just the picture at that point-in-time.

If the unemployment situation does not improve or if other "surprises" surface, expect the swing to reverse itself.

[timeforpeace]

3. Sorry, the damage was done when they took the lead after having been declared officially dead.

[chandler2]

4. This is NOT good news. Here's why.

Obama's biggest need is to attract independents. They are NOT necessarily of the same mindset as the conservatives he's been
courting. Now, he won't have to worry about catering to the populist instincts of a large bloc and instead can continue to
court Wall street...while simultaneously, beginning in January, tossing a few small chicken bones to liberals...who will
rush to his arms and overlook the fact that most of what he has and will continue doing is NOT in their interests, but rather
is in the interests of the rich and powerful.