Who are the Dem. Senators that are not going to run in 2010?

[jwirr]

Hardball had a section on it but I did not get their names. I
wish if they were quitting anyhow that they would do what is
right. 

[rwheeler31]

1. Bond Missouri

[Ken Burch]

3. Bond's a Republican

The OP was asking about retiring Democrats.

[bigwillq]

2. Does this help?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2010

Didn't look through it very closely but you may find some answers.

[Ken Burch]

4. Roland Burris and Kaufman of Rhode Island

Don't feel bad. Nobody else had heard of Kaufman either. Not sure if they've heard of him IN Rhode Island.

[FBaggins]

6. They may not have heard of Haufman in RI

But that may be because he's from Delaware. :-)

[Ken Burch]

7. Well, you're right.

That's how little the REST of us know about him.

Did he ever actually do anything that we need to know about?

[FBaggins]

11. By all accounts he's a nice guy.

He was appointed as a caretaker for Biden's seat a year or so ago and I think has been a reliable vote. He was Biden's chief of staff for almost 20 years, so if you were a fan of Biden's votes in the 80s and 90s... Kaufmann deserves some credit.

[Ken Burch]

12. Well, just so long as HE doesn't think he's from Rhode Island.

n/t.

[Yupster]

5. Chris was talking about House members

There were four of them who announced their retirements in conservative districts. Two were in Tennessee.

On a different topic, I'd list these Democratic seats as worth worrying about in the 2010 election.

1. Illinois (Burris) Dem should win
2. Colorado (Bennet) ???
3. Connecticutt (Dodd) Dodd should be okay
4. Nevada (Reid) thinking Harry's in big trouble
5. Delaware (Biden) Joe's son should win the seat
6. Arkansas (Lincoln) trouble? don't have a feel for it
7. Louisiana (Landreaux) I think she's okay
8. New York (Hillary's seat) Gillebrand should be okay in NY

I don't see any type of tsunami building. For sure some seats at risk though.

[FBaggins]

8. I don't know about "tsunami"...

...but it could easily be a pretty tough year if we don't turn things around.

1) IL - Can't say "Dem should win" when there is no indication that Burris will get out of the way. If it's Burris, we lose that seat absent a dramatic sea change.

2) CO - I would pick Bennet at this point, but there is plenty of reason for concern. A statewide incumbent regularly polling under 50% has reason to fear. It's also possible that we'll have an ugly primary. Have to rate this one as a tossup.

3) CT - Dodd is by no means "okay". The last poll that even showed him with a lead was in March (and he was still well below 50%). More recent polling puts him in the 30s and down by double-digits. He's in real danger.

4) NV - Yes... Reid is in trouble.

5) DE - I think that Biden can win the seat, but Castle holds the lead in most polls. Have to rate that one as a tossup.

6) AR - Trouble. She's well below the 50% danger line for an incumbent and has trailed in a number of polls.

7) LA - Yes... Landreaux is certainly safe here. If for not other reason than she isn't up for election for five more years. :)
The republican incumbent (Vitter), OTOH, has a potentially touch race. He leads in the high-single-digit range but is below 50% in the polls I've seen. It leans republican right now, but if national polls start to turn our way it could be a chance to pick up a seat.

8) NY had better be safe. Gillebrand IS sub-50%, but holds solid leads over competitors. If NY becomes competitive, people will be asking how close the republicans are to retaking the Senate and whether Lieberman will formalize his switch to the republican party.

You left off:

9) PA (Specter). By traditional measures, Specter is in real trouble. He's only trailed in one non-rasmussen poll, but is not just sub-50%... he has trouble holding 40%. Don't have a feel for this one but it's no solid hold.

10) CA (Boxer) - Can't see this as anything but a win, but it's one to watch.

So if the elections were held today we might lose 5-7 seats from that list. This should be offset but tossup (or better) races in NH, OH, KY and MO where Republicans could lose seats.

[cali]

9. Burris announced in July he isn't running.

and Alaska's female Senator is a repuke. Other than that, I think you nail it.

[FBaggins]

13. My error was abreviation... not gender.

Should have been "AR" not "AK". Been doing that since probably second grade.

You're right about Burris. Thanks for the update.

I would then move that race from leans R to tossup. The stink from Blagojevich and Burris will make that a tough one.

If we can recover support nationally I think we'll be fine in IL. If not, this one likely gets swept up.

[FBaggins]

14. May also need to add ND to the list.

Dorgan can't be considered endangered, but some say that Gov Hoeven may consider a run and republicans are certainly pushing him to do so. That would likely move a solid D race into the tossup column.

That's really "tossup" at best... since Zogby did a poll showing Dorgan losing by something like 20%. Let's just hope the governor likes his current job more.

On edit - Dorgan's team says that the poll was intentionally skewed and that their polling says that Dorgan would win that race. Let's hope we never need to find out... because I doubt anyone else can give him a run for his money.

[jwirr]

16. Thank you. That is what I was asking about. Was busy when it came

on and missed most of it. I also do not think it is a tsunami.

[madokie]

10. Dems are not going to be loosing any seats in either the house or senate

so quite worrying about it. Americans can see what and who the problems are

[FBaggins]

15. Ah... Right. Those aren't the droids we're looking for.

Hope it works! :)