Nevada jobless rate drops to 12.3 percent

[tonysam]

This isn't as good as it sounds. From the article:

State officials say Nevada’s unemployment rate fell for a second consecutive month in November, to 12.3 percent.

But the state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation said Thursday that it sees a troubling trend.

It says almost 14,000 workers either left the state during the month, or were too discouraged to seek employment.

link


The moving van businesses are doing quite well apparently, for I see them everywhere in Reno.

[enlightenment]

1. Who decided it was a good idea to only look

at the newly unemployed/active job seekers to calculate the unemployment rate? It is deceptive. I understand adjusting for seasonal labor, but leaving out those who have been unemployed long enough to run out of benefits and those who are so discouraged that they are no longer even trying skews the numbers - and public perception of the depth of the problem.

I remember getting into an argument about this with my econ professor in college - he almost kicked me out of class. Told me that 'is the way it's done in economics and reality doesn't matter.' I haven't had much respect for economists since then, since they apparently operate in a fantasy land of their own creation.

:(

[tonysam]

3. Good point

I think the person quoted in the article really had it correct; this is really not a figure to boast about when people are either quitting looking for work or they are leaving Nevada in droves.

There are "for rent" signs EVERYWHERE in my neighborhood, which has a lot of low-income households.

[Statistical]

7. They don't

There are two stats.
NEW CLAIMS = people who filed claim for first time.
&
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE = people who are collecting unemployment.

Of course there are other rates like U-6 which are more comprehensive.
They are totally separate metrics but usually reported together.

NEW CLAIMS is useful because changes faster. It gives us an idea of how fast we are falling (rate of change).

[enlightenment]

8. I understand that.

Believe it or not - I passed those econ courses.

My point is that the figures that are bandied about are not accurate UNTIL you incorporate all those other comprehensive factors, and serve to skew public perception. That's why people get confused: they read that 'jobless figures are down' and then drive down the street looking at foreclosed homes, empty shops, 'out of business' signs, and corners populated by people holding 'will work for food' signs instead of briefcases.

I live in Las Vegas and the OP's article has it right - the figures are not telling the story.

[treestar]

2. But if they moved because there was a job somewhere else

That's a good thing. Maybe bad for that state overall but good for the people who are no longer unemployed.

[tonysam]

4. Not necessarily

People are most likely packing up their belongings and moving to another state to FIND better opportunities, not to TAKE a job in another state, and, in my case shortly, to move in with relatives so as to not be stranded in Nevada.

There are few jobs in Oregon, in California, in Arizona, in just about anyplace nearby.

[DRoseDARs]

5. And apparently our tap water here is going to kill us all too.

At least we aren't Las Vegas. ;)

[tonysam]

6. The tap water is HORRENDOUS

I don't know what shit is put in there, but it is unfit to drink.