What are you predictions for the 2010 economy?

[TwixVoy]

Let's re-visit this thread in December 2010 and see how things turn out. List major economic events (or events that effect economic events) that you expect to happen.

Here are mine:

1. more than 500 banks closed by FDIC

2. FDIC eliminates deposit insurance

3. Official devaluation of the US Dollar

4. Republicans take congress, the market blows through the March 2009 lows

5. Israel and/or the US bombs Iran

6. We have another major terrorist attack in the US

7. Lots more retail closings

8. Unemployment (official number) hits 15%

9. Commercial real estate goes to hell

10. Gold hits $2000

[TexasObserver]

1. Generally disagree with yet another end of world scenario by you.

1. more than 500 banks closed by FDIC

Could be. There are over 8000 of them.

2. FDIC eliminates deposit insurance

Not going to happen.

3. Official devaluation of the US Dollar

Not going to happen.

4. Republicans take congress, the market blows through the March 2009 lows

Could happen, but unlikely the market blows through the March 2009 lows.

5. Israel and/or the US bombs Iran

Could happen, but unlikely.

6. We have another major terrorist attack in the US

Could happen, but unlikely.

7. Lots more retail closings

Will happen. Retail has to adjust to online competition.

8. Unemployment (official number) hits 15%

Not going to happen.

9. Commercial real estate goes to hell

Commercial real estate will take hits in 2010, and may get worse for the year, but I wouldn't call that going to hell.

10. Gold hits $2000

Could happen short term.

[Wardoc]

6. I agree with #4, #7 and #8.

[Double T]

2. 2010 will be a fraudulent 'up' for wall street and down for the rest of US.........

with a total collapse of the US economic, financial and political/government systems in 2012. Start storing food, wood and other fuels.

[EmeraldCityGrl]

3. I agree.

A bulk of the ARMs for mid to upper level homes are due to reset which will decimate an
already staggering RE market. Commercial RE will get worse as more businesses bite the dust.

FDIC will not fail next year because that would cause a rush on the banks. With more Baby Boomers
forced into retirement and a lack of jobs, whatever savings or investments people have will have been
placed in money markets and CD's.

The dollar will continue to decline which will increase the rush to precious metals until another
currency, most likely the Euro, becomes more attractive.

Access to healthy food and water are going to become increasingly difficult for many families.
I would love to find a few affordable farmable acres with a private well.

As the wars escalate, the fear factor will have to be increased in order to justify the huge budget
and increased deployment of troops.

There are no viable indicators to suggest things are getting better. All we hear are opinions and
propaganda.

[cabluedem]

5. Best: things slowly worsen. Worse: Civil war and riots. States leaving union/armed rebellion. nt

[Yupster]

4. My far is a rise in interest rates

The US budget is pretty much a gonner right now paying 3 % interest on treasuries.

What would we do if interest rates rise to 6 % ?

They will eventually.

[DemReadingDU]

7. I think there will be a limit on amounts withdrawn from banks

With more banks closing, I see people panic and try to withdraw all their money from their bank, especially if the FDIC eliminates deposit insurance. So to prevent bank runs, there could be a maximum amount to withdraw. See precedence in Ohio...

March 15, 1985 - Ohio Governor Richard Celeste temporarily halted business at all of state's ailing thrifts;
March 21 - allowed to reopen with $750 cap on withdrawals (designed to prevent all-out assault on deposits);
became one of largest fiscal crises of the 1980s:
http://www.kipnotes.com/SavingsLoans.htm


possibly could have a cap on withdrawals from credit unions too.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. You are invested in a second great depression

given economic data YOU ARE WRONG, but hey whatever trips your trigger. Here is a clue, unemployment numbers are finally TRENDING DOWN. I know that blows your total collapse of the US economy scenario. Sorry ain't gonna happen.

As to a devaluation of the US dollar... here is a concept you are not familiar with. The US currency floats. It goes up and down in value all the time. Trend has been down for some time. Nobody has to make this official, it already is. And the US Dollar has lost value already... upwards of 30% from 2000.

Oh and the end of FDIC insurance, will NOT HAPPEN.

As to terrorist attacks, and the rest of the end of the world scenario you have... perhaps you should join them fundies that are INVESTED in the end of times messianic times scenario. There are days...

:banghead:

[leeroysphitz]

9. My prediction? Pain.

[blue_onyx]

10. I don't think things will be that bad

4. Republicans take congress, the market blows through the March 2009 lows
I don't think they'll take back the either the Senate or the House. They will have gains though

7. Lots more retail closings
We'll probably see some more store closings after another bad holiday shopping season. I don't think see entire large chains close.

8. Unemployment (official number) hits 15%
I doubt it. It may go up to 11%, maybe 12%, but not as high as 15%.

[Hawkowl]

11. Agree with all but 3

The "official" policy will still be a "strong dollar", but the actual policy (just like the present) will be a continual devaluation by runaway dollar creation.

Also, I don't think Republicans will take both houses of Congress, but they will make gains and Obama will become more reviled by a higher percentage of the American public than George Bush II ever was.

[roamer65]

12. My predictions for 2010.

Economic predictions:
1. Unemployment does not change much at all.
2. There will be a sovereign debt default in the Eurozone (probably Greece and possibly Austria), leading to a major world currency crisis.
3. Inflation will pick up steam as the Fed continues past the tripling of the M1 money supply. No one will want our Treasuries and the Fed will be forced to buy them. Inflation will pass 10% by year's end.
4. Gold will hit at least $1500 an ounce.

Geopolitical predictions:
5. A regional war will be begin between Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and possibly Iraq and it will pull in India. The Israelis may use the opportunity to take a swipe at Iran and it will be the beginning stages of WW3.
6. The Dems will lose seats in November, but not lose control of the House and Senate.