Eleven months ago today, this was the scene on The National Mall in Washington DC.

[Stinky The Clown]

Back then we were all full of hope. We all believed a transformative presidency had begun.

While the Democratic politically aware clearly all voted, so did certain other blocks of voters. There were disaffected Republicans. There were low information voters who followed the crowd. Disaffected Americans voted, many for the first time in many, many years. Then there were the young voters, who usually display high energy and low follow through; this time they actually showed up. And first time voters. Lots of first time voters.

It is a safe bet to assume all of those constituencies were represented in that fish eye photo.

How many of these people do we think will turn out in 2010? I would guess virtually none. Midterms are always the province of the wonks and hard core base people, never the masses.

But what about in 2012? I know its early, but what does your gut tell you right now?

I claim zero expertize in this arena, but my own gut says none of these constituencies will favor the Democrats. The disaffected Republicans will return home. The youth will go back to doing what they always do - lots of talk and no action. The disaffected will be even more disaffected. The first time voters will be the best bet for us. They'll split. Some will not vote for many more years. A few will vote again and if they do, it will be for our side.

This can be changed, but only from the top. No amount of tongue wagging by us working the streets in the run up to elections will help. I really think much of the heady energy displayed that day eleven months ago is gone. It can only return from whence it came. The top.

*We* can't do that, even if we want to.

[mnhtnbb]

1. All hat no cattle. Damn shame.

[HughMoran]

2. Who?

[Stinky The Clown]

3. Who do you want it to be?

[HughMoran]

4. Wasn't asking you

sorry

[Stinky The Clown]

5. You weren't. But I'm asking YOU

I'm also not sorry.

[FrenchieCat]

6. I'm still full of hope.......

and that will remain so.

It is about the ends, not the means that count.

It is about solutions, not blame.

It is about progress, not miracles,

it is about a way forward, not a personality cult,

it is about us, and how generous we will be in making ourselves
part of the answer instead of part of the problem.

It isn't about being right, but about doing right in the long term.

We have to also hope that we are not so simple,
to buy into the American sitcom mentality
of having it all wrapped up neatly in a bow by the end of the very short show.
me, I prefer an extended mini series, at the very least.

"Anyone who is “betrayed by their naiveté” should feel doubly ridiculous for thinking the change they voted for would come overnight. Status quo is not “kicked out of the door” like a weak, stray cat. Status quo has to be rallied against, systems have to be put in place to combat it, people have to put in work. Status quo will remain the “status quo” if people are too lazy to stick around for the entire fight."

[Stinky The Clown]

7. I expect you are

[Bluebear]

14. full of it?

:hide:

[Fumesucker]

9. You put one too many words on that sentence, it should have read:

"Anyone who is “betrayed by their naiveté” should feel doubly ridiculous for thinking the change they voted for would come."

As for me, I'm old and cynical, I didn't expect change and I'm getting pretty much what I expected..

Doesn't mean I like it though.

[EFerrari]

22. Apparently, it was all about the cliches. n/t

[PCIntern]

8. This was only partly a celebration of Obama...

for many of us it was a celebration of the end of Bush....and that cannot be repeated...Lex Luthor can only be vanquished once per Superman film.

However, we will rally again...make no mistake: this country is turning away from the WASP power elite in terms of elections and they know it. This is the last gasp by those who know the birth rates of each of the 'different' populations here.

Boy, you'd think they'd be FOR the ability to terminate pregnancies...it is ironic and fascinating.

I am thus: cautiously optimistic...

[Stinky The Clown]

10. My only disagreement with you is one of time

I infer you're suggesting this will obtain in the '12 cycle. I think it is still a little further out.

But I agree with you. And it is a fundamental game changer.

[Hannah Bell]

21. The power elite can bring reps of black, brown, yellow, gay, catholic, etc. into the fold.

The condition of the masses doesn't change.

It ain't about color, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation. Those identity boxes are just tools in the power elite's kit.

It's about who owns the world, its resources, & its means of production, including its means of ideological production & reproduction.

[yurbud]

11. Dems will lose big in 2010, Obama will hold on by the thinnest margin in 2012

and govern exactly the way Bill Clinton did.

[texanwitch]

12. I am afraid so.

History will repeat itself.

[spanone]

13. i think we'll gain in 2010. the pubs have shown their asses as the party of nothing.

america is not ready to give anything back to the gop imho

[yurbud]

15. I hope you're right. The Democrats aren't trying very hard to make you right though.

[texanwitch]

16. I hope you are right.

I worked early voting in 2008, we voted something like 25,000 in 12 days.

The lines were very long but nobody seemed to mind, everybody was excited to vote.

Young people came in huge numbers, I knew President Obama would win.

If the Democrats don't fix this health care bill they are in trouble.

People need health care now not in a few years for only a few people.

It isn't that hard, all it takes is guts.

Democrats are in the majority now, no more excuses.

The White House gang can pressure people if they want to, look what they are doing to the few liberals.

I had high hopes in January, not now.

[yurbud]

19. Democrats are working hard to suppress the enthusiasm of their base, so GOP could

win by default since their base is highly motivated to turn out.

Rahm Emanuel is a political genius at collecting corporate money, but not at making his guy loved.

[Vinca]

17. It's actually very sad what has happened.

I heard David Axelrod on one of the talk shows say that President Obama promised to work on getting cheaper prescription drugs. I thought to myself "promises, promises." I don't believe him anymore.

[Odin2005]

18. I feel betrayed.

I was expecting a Dean-type moderate and I saw Obama as the natural extension of Dean's movement. I got a sellout.

[TicketyBoo]

20. I still have a little hope,

but it's waning. I'm trying to hold onto that hope.

I'm more discouraged with Congress than with the President. I wish that people would see the deviltry the Republicans have been perpetrating, see that we need an even bigger majority to get things done in a timely fashion. I'm afraid the sentiment will be, "Throw the bums out!"