Can I ask a dumb question about the Health Care Bill?

[garybeck]

I keep hearing these two things:

-the bill will "insure 30 million people who currently have no health insurance."

-there is "mandated" coverage, where anyone who doesn't have insurance will be forced to get it.



OK, if this is also true:

According to the Census Bureau's 2005 Current Population Survey (CPS), there were 45.8 million uninsured individuals in 2004, or 15.7% of the civilian non-institutionalized population.
http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/Reports/05/uninsured-cps/

Now I'm no math genius but doesn't that leave about 15 million people? And that is the 2004 figure, so I assume there are a few more people uninsured at this point.

Is there a paradox here or am I missing something? How can we have mandated coverage for all and only insure 30 million uninsured people when there are at least 45 milliion people uninsured??

fuzzy math?

(I'm also interested in knowing how many of those 30 million people are going to be "mandated" to buy coverage that they can't afford, but I'll save that for another day."

[VMI Dem]

1. Why are you questioning the details of the bill?

You don't care about the uninsured.

[garybeck]

18. Oops, sorry, I started thinking for myself again....

I won't let it happen again.

[tekisui]

2. Those who are in poverty don't really exist in the system.

The mandated insurance penalties will be paid through taxes, for those who file. There is a large number, I guess it is is somewhere around 15 million who have been invisible until now, and will be invisible after the bill goes into law.

[garybeck]

5. Sorry but I don't understand your answer. thanks for trying. :)

[kirby]

3. The rest will either pay a fine or

become a 'tax cheat' who didn't pay their fine.

Considering the hoopla on the mandate, I find it hard to believe it will be enforced.

[walldude]

6. It'll be enforced one way or another...

either with fines or a tax increase. They need some way to cover the cost of the subsidies. A Medicare buy-in is the only solution left.

[garybeck]

7. Are you saying that they expect 15 million people to break the law and pay the fine?

Somehow I think that's not it.

[kirby]

14. That is why...

my post has the second line 'or become a "tax cheat" if they fail to pay'.

So yes, they expect a portion of the 15 million to be assessed a fine, but not pay it. Good luck collecting it.

[CreekDog]

16. the fines are often cheaper than the insurance

which is why i think they expect not all will use the mandate to buy insurance.

[kirby]

20. Exactly...

"The bill would require individuals to buy health insurance, with a fine for non-compliance of $95 in the first year that would escalate to $750 by 2016. Parents would be responsible for providing coverage for children up to age 18."

[kestrel91316]

26. Yeah, but if you pay the fine YOU STILL HAVE NO INSURANCE.

It must be a win-win for a couple of somebodies, but I'm darned if I can figure out who.

I think it probably means the only change we are gonna see is that potter's fields are gonna fill up with people who up and died destitute.

[kestrel91316]

27. Your fine doesn't pay for any insurance. Those who get fined for NOT

having insurance still won't have insurance. And the fine will leave them with LESS MONEY to buy insurance with.

This is beyond comprehensible.

[CreekDog]

28. okay, but i was simply answering the question

:shrug:

[dmallind]

4. Well details of course are contingent, but...a bit of both

Yes there will be mandates. People who pay healthcrae providers now (usually through insurance) have to pick up the tab for the uninsured now. These mandates will come with sliding scale subsidies up to quite decent income levels. Limits to max out percentage of income for health care are under discussion, and will almost certainly end up in the final bill (worst I have seen is 8%. Affordable? Much of that depends on individual circumstances and opinion. Certainly MORE affordable than now though.)

There will also be an expansion of Medicaid to cover more people.

Any assumptions of coverage extension have to take into account the number who will not comply with mandates and will not qualify for Medicaid in any case. Yes 15+ million is horiible. It is however much lower than 46 million.

[BrklynLiberal]

8. and if you do not understand any of this, see Rule #1...

:crazy: :crazy: :silly: :silly: :wtf: :wtf:




Rule #1. Don't ask questions.

[ThomWV]

9. Easy - 15 Million immigrants without status make up the difference.

[garybeck]

12. I hope you're not serious.

but it's a valid question... how many "illegal" immigrants will be left in the cold when this goes down and what will happen to them when they show up in the emergency room?

[ThomWV]

15. I am absolutly serious, them and others who are not counted make up the difference

[CreekDog]

17. the law requiring care for anyone needing emergency care is not changing

so what is the concern about that issue?

[garybeck]

19. that's good

except I would imagine that if they are completely cut out of everything except emergency care, that the use of emergency care would increase...

[jberryhill]

21. That's pretty much the status quo, though /nt

[CreekDog]

22. they are now anyway

and a vote or two from a Republican or conservative Democrat could have changed that in an instant.

but those votes weren't there and now millions will not get help available to others.

they are human beings after all, but... :eyes:

[anarch]

23. welcome to every over-capacity, ineffective ER in pretty much every city

at least all the ones I've been in or heard about for some time now

[SpartanDem]

25. why would the use of emergency care increase

they can buy insurance if can afford, but they aren't eligible for subsidies. It should stay the same

[ChicagoSuz219]

30. They will be treated. It's the law.

If they can't afford it, the costs will be passed onto the rest of us. If you have a problem with that, take it up with those idiot Congressmen & Senators who couldn't see past their own prejudices to include them.

[roody]

13. and how many people who live on the streets?

[ChicagoSuz219]

29. That was my answer... n/t

[SpartanDem]

10. There are a few reasons

About 1/3 will illegal immigrants, the rest will people who just outright refuse to buy deciding to pay the fine and those exempt due financial hardship maybe because subsides aren't enough for them, religious objections, the incarcerated.

As for how many of 30 million will be mandated to buy insurance it'll be about 17 million with the other 13 million headed to Medicaid.

[jberryhill]

11. That's approximately the estimate of undocumented immigrants /nt

[unblock]

24. the 15 million will simply opt for the "fine". which won't technically be a "fine"

they will likely phrase it as a tax credit available only to those who buy their own health insurance. those who "choose" to go uninsured (or can't afford it) simply don't get the credit.

they won't be able to avoid the fine explicitly; anyone who "refuses to pay the fine" would have to underpay their taxes by the amount of the credit, or explicitly claim the credit, and would simply be viewed as a tax cheat, and portrayed in the media as such (if they even ever got media coverage).

[Cleita]

31. Dumb questions are fine. Dumb answers are what

nobody cares for. I can't answer your question because of what I just said, however, in that statistic you missed all the people who are insured but still can't get health care because of high deductible and copays