New US jobless claims unexpectedly fall to 452,000

[cal04]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091224/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

The number of newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits has fallen more than expected as the labor market makes a fitful recovery.

The Labor Department says the number of new jobless claims fell to a 452,000 last week, down 28,000 from the previous week, on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's a better performance than the decline to 470,000 that economists had expected.

The four-week average for claims, which smooths out fluctuations, fell to 465,250 — the 16th straight weekly decline. That's viewed as an encouraging sign that the labor market is improving gradually.

Both the average and new claims numbers are at their lowest levels since September 2008, when the financial crisis hit with full force.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/initial-jobless-claims-fall-28000-to-452000-2009-12-24-84200

[Statistical]

1. Good news.

The "smoothed" numbers (4 week moving average) is more useful. Despite "jumpiness" in the number it has been on a 4 month slow decline.

[NJmaverick]

2. This is becoming a day of good news

[Donnachaidh]

3. oh yeah, it's *only 400 THOUSAND *MORE* out of work this month

Bet those folks don't see it as *good news*. And we'll see those numbers go to shit when the retailers start dumping people before the new year.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

6. Perhaps you don't understand the concept of "seasonally adjusted" (nt)

[geckosfeet]

9. Precisely. That -450,000 needs to turn around and become a net gain of jobs.

Moving modestly in the right direction but,,,,,

My back of the napkin calculation says that by removing (on average) 10,000 new claims per mo., it will take 45 months to reduce 450,000 new claims per mo to 0 new claims per mo.

Nearly four years.

How long does it take for a man to starve?

[girl gone mad]

4. Not sure why the reporter says this is "unexpected"..

claims always fall close around Thanksgiving and Christmas. People delay filing because many are traveling or busy with the holiday. Also, there is a pick up seasonal employment which is hard to gauge.

This week claims should fall again, thanks to inclement weather in the NE. Wonder if they will say it is "unexpected", too.

[bighart]

5. and next week it will be

"unemployment unexpectedly surges" These numbers are manipulated for effect.

[hayu_lol]

7. Don't be fooled...

we have probably averaged about a half million jobs per month lost over the past 18 months. Seasonably adjusted...LOL...wait till the Xmas help gets tossed two days after the holiday.

The economy is still tanking.

[Statistical]

8. Seasonally adjusted.

The seasonal swings are taken into account.

[girl gone mad]

10. the seasonal adjustment is an approximation.

the adjustment factor is less than perfect, and is not as accurate in volatile periods.

Here's an example from a couple of weeks ago, when unemployment claims far outpaced what the seasonal adjustment factor expected: