The "underwear bomber" story fails the smell test

[jmowreader]

Official story: The West-Hating son of a Nigerian banker contacted a radical imam who hooked him up with Al Qaeda's top bombmaker. The top bombmaker built him a special set of underwear with 80 grams of the high explosive PETN, plus an oxidizing agent that would set it off, and put him on a plane from Amsterdam to Detroit. The wouldn't-be terrorist attempted to set off the PETN, making several little firecracker-like pops. A Dutch video editor tackled the guy, disarmed him and dragged him to the front of the plane, where he was restrained until the plane landed and police arrived to put him in jail.

What's wrong here?

1. Everyone who's getting ready to celebrate New Year's Day by setting off firecrackers can do this experiment pretty easily. Get two firecrackers and a sock full of something like dried beans. Light both firecrackers and set the sock on one of them. The one in "free air" will just make a harmless and entertaining bang. The sock will be torn to shit. Explosives have to be contained somehow to develop their full potential--drill a hole, cover them up, tape them with duct tape, something. The genius bomber pulled down his pants so he could get to the bag of explosives easier. This means one of two things happened: the AQ top bomb maker forgot to tell the guy he had to keep his pants up--if he was wearing tight pants he MIGHT have had enough confinement to properly initiate the charge--or he was told and ignored it.

(At this point I'm trying to keep anyone from getting stupid, because as we all know you can set off a firecracker in your open hand and just get burned, but if you clench your fingers around it they'll get mangled. Mangled fingers suck, dude.)

2. PETN requires two sources of energy to explode--heat and pressure. A blasting cap provides both. Just setting it on fire won't. Maybe the genius was supposed to light the shit on fire then slap it with his hand once it was burning. Anyway, it's a stupid plan.

3. Assume he DID get it to explode. They seated him right over the fuel tank. We can only guess that the Mad Bomber was going to make this big explosion that would detonate the nearly-empty fuel tank--lots of fumes in there, and they're flammable--which would fireball the plane. This 200-ton fireball would have barreled into the airport and caused even more bedlam. Now for reality: between the 80-gram explosive charge--which in reality isn't much--and the fuel tank you would find:

the bomber's scrotum
the seat he's in
about a foot of free air between the seat and the floor
the aluminum floor structure
another foot of free air

Which means this small charge (which wasn't contained and, therefore, hasn't reached its fullest potential) has to blow the guy's nuts off which requires energy to do, through the energy-absorbing padded seat, then through the energy-dissipating air, the energy-reflecting floor and the energy-dissipating air under the floor (and that's not to count the insulation which is almost certainly there) before it even gets to the very durable gas tank. A number-ten envelope full of high explosives isn't enough to deal with the problem. Now if he'd have had an artillery shell he could have done it, but what's the odds of even the stupidest security screener looking at this asshat who's got an eight-inch howitzer round shoved down his drawers and asking, "is that a bomb in your pocket or are you just happy to see me?"

4. I don't think I'm real good at searching. I used Google, AltaVista, Bing, HotBot, Dogpile...you search on "radical imam" and only get stories about this incident. These guys don't have websites! How the hell do you apply for a job as a terrorist over the internet? I went to CareerBuilder and told it I wanted to be a terrorist. Nope, no jobs like that exist--however, UBS Financial Services is looking for a Money Laundering Prevention Analyst. That sounds pretty sweet.

All right, I've ridiculed enough. I see three scenarios here. First is that an American conservative or group of them set the guy up--gave him a "bomb" that wouldn't work, sent him to a place where they knew he'd get busted quick, then saturate Faux News with RW talking head after RW talking head until all America knows they're on the verge of death with Obama in office. I don't think they're clever enough to actually do this, but maybe.

Scenario 2: Al Qaeda's top bombmaker thought this shit would work. We'll call this top bombmaker "Boris Badenov." Obviously he's too stupid to make a good bomb, which is why they have to fly airplanes into shit to cause any substantive damage. Maybe he's Osama's brother-in-law? Put this one after the Republican one in the order of probability.

Scenario 3 (which I think is most likely): The underpants bomber showed up saying he was gonna get him a shotgun and kill all the whities he sees. "O shit...if we don't do something he's going to get us all thrown in jail." So they gave him a bomb that wouldn't work and sent him to the most highly defended area in the world, where he got busted before he even got to the airport.

I think if AQ was really interested in blowing up a plane in flight they could figure out a way to do it. But instead they try this. I don't think so.

[kestrel91316]

1. I'm not convinced the guy isn't just some batshit crazy Al Qaeda wanna-be.

[jmowreader]

11. That's possible...

It's ALSO possible it wasn't really PETN. How many Americans know what it looks like? It's NEVER used by itself because it's shock-sensitive--you mix it with another explosive, put it in clay and call it Plastique, add a binder and make Primacord out of it...something. It not being what they said it was (and it's almost certain they're not going to give you any so you can have it tested at another lab) would support the "he was set up" theory--if I was going to set a guy up like that I wouldn't give him a real bomb on the off chance he figured out a way to confine it. Hey, I only want the guy BUSTED, right? I don't want him to kill anyone, especially himself.

He could have been with another terror group that was just calling itself AQ. This isn't the 1980s. Back then we had quite a few name-brand terrorist groups. Abu Nidal was out there. The Contras and the Sandinistas were both terror groups. The Red Brigades, Red Army Fraction, all those guys. And let's not forget our famous American terror groups Animal Liberation Front, Earth Liberation Front, Earth First! and Operation Rescue. Now everything's Al Qaeda--the Walmart of Terror. A new entrant in the lucrative field of blowing shit up ain't got a chance if it's not affiliated with AQ.

[StarfarerBill]

26. Ditto. We have no hard evidence that this guy had any contact with AQ at all.

And even if he had, your demonstration shows that they weren't trying very hard for him to succeed. Which leads me back to thinking that he came up with this hare-brained scheme on his own.

[virgogal]

2. Great choice of words in your header.

[Hello_Kitty]

3. I dunno about your theory but that was hilarious! K and R. eom

[GoneOffShore]

4. Ah, but the Sky-is-Falling crowd are already using it as an excuse

to tighten security.

[nykym]

15. And those same

screaming heads (GOP Congress critters) are the ones who voted against funding the TSA.

[havocmom]

5. Possibly the worst subject line you have ever written

That aside, you raise some very interesting points. Thanks for posting a bit of sanity.

[jmowreader]

12. Oh, come on. I've written MUCH worse!

[havocmom]

16. nope. "underwear bomber" and "smell test" in same line takes the cake

:rofl:

[Bonobo]

6. Why use flame at all?

Why not an electric ignition? A double AA battery and a wire would do it, right?

No, it does NOT pass the smell test.

[jmowreader]

30. He supposedly used a liquid oxidizer

For obvious reasons no one will tell you exactly what's in this, but PETN will explode if it's mixed with a liquid oxidizing agent.

I don't think two AA batteries and wire would set off PETN. You'd need some sort of primary explosive like a blasting cap to make it go that way. And besides, if you walked through the metal detector with two AA batteries and a piece of wire, even the Keystone Kops we've got at some of our TSA checkpoints would start asking questions. Two AA batteries and wire are not the kinds of things people just pack around for the hell of it. No, they wanted something that's not visible to a metal detector.

And then...if they put the guy on a plane without a passport by telling the ticket agent "we put poor Sudanese people on the plane without passports all the time," they should have been able to use the same excuse to get him around the metal detector.

[dgibby]

31. That would have shown up on a scanner. n/t

[formercia]

7. PETN detonates just fine without confinement.

I used to work with it on the Demolition Range testing IEDs on an almost daily basis.

[jmowreader]

17. What it won't do unconfined is anything really useful

You can get a nice transient overpressure out of it, but you'd need a couple pounds of it to break anything.

OTOH, cap a little hunk of that shit and put a shovelful of gravel on it, and see what happens.

[formercia]

36. I've stood in the open, 20 feet away from a pound of it detonating.

It's quite a rush, but it's typical of that class of compounds that the damage is localized and very intense, while a few yards away, nothing.

I could go into it in detail but this is not the venue for that kind discussion.

It will throw some gravel around.

[slackmaster]

41. My condolences on the loss of your hearing.

;-)

[formercia]

44. I do have a hearing problem.

People say the damnedst things when they think you can't hear them. Ever play the village idiot?

One of the crew had a brilliant 'idea' to tie claymores on to the end of bamboo poles, that way you could swing them overhead from inside a trench.

It worked very well but he gave up the idea when someone pointed out the blood dripping from his ears.

[dflprincess]

8. And then there are the reports that the guy was supposedly on the

"terra" watch list, but not on the no-fly list. And that it is claimed that his own father warned authorities that the guy's a danger.

Yet, he was able to get on a plane with no problems.

[jmowreader]

21. And apparently without a passport!

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2009/12/flight_253_passenger_says_at_l.html

Apparently the bomber was brought up in poor clothing by a man in a quality suit, who told the ticket agent Mutallab didn't have a passport, but "he's from Sudan and we (put people without passports on the plane) all the time."

I am a law-abiding citizen who dresses well and there are exactly two ways I can get on a plane going overseas: with a passport, and with a set of military travel orders. Yet this guy shows up with about fifteen red flags hanging over his head and gets on the plane anyway? Christ.

[MiniMe]

9. ...underwear.......smell test.....

Just ewwwww.

[L0oniX]

33. Betcha it left a mark too. n/t

[peacetalksforall]

10. I choose Scenario number one, but I think it was a Cheney set-up so he could

repeat that daft statement that there were no terrorist attacks on Georgie's watch.

Great post - I have the feeling I can trust your background and knowledge that allowed you to write it.

I go for set-up and I want to know why he wasn't on a no-fly list. I think it's time we know the difference between being declared a terrorist and being added to the no-fly list. If it was us or the fundies or the baron clan that set it up, I want to see them in jail. So are we going to file a criminal charge or bomb Nigeria and Yemen?

[jmowreader]

32. There were no terror attacks on Georgie's watch?

Well, except for the one in September 2001 he let slip by because we didn't know the flight and seat numbers.

Oh, and the anthrax-laced letters. That was in September 2001 as well, was it not?

How about the Beltway Sniper?

I kinda predict we're going to bomb Yemen. Holy Joe wants to...http://www.infowars.com/lieberman-yemen-is-tomorrows-war-if-pre-emptive-action-not-taken/

Oh...I found an entertaining article about Holy Joe. He says waterboarding isn't torture because it's not like putting burning coals on people's bodies. I WOULD say that Lieberman would be against waterboarding if the Nazis did it, but strangely enough the Nazis forbade its use--they said it was just too cruel.

[eleny]

13. I'm skeptical

It seemed predictable that someone would set up a stunt in the hopes of discrediting the administration. So I wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be just that.

[marmar]

14. I don't think I get your scenario No. 3.....

[jmowreader]

34. I don't know what Al Qaeda recruitment is like...

but I assume that if someone walks in and he's just WAY too gung ho about this shit, they'll get rid of him. Most criminal organizations would. "Is this guy a cop? Is he going to get us all busted?"

I can see two ways to get rid of him: shoot him, and get him arrested.

I got the idea for this from the East Germans...this moran in 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment decided his commanders were being mean to him, so to get back at them he copied the 11th ACR's classified operation plan onto a laptop and tried to defect to East Germany. They made a copy of the OPLAN then called the 11th ACR staff duty officer to come get him back. He's going to get out of prison in about five years.

[malaise]

18. Looks like they have become retards since 9/11

This does fail the smell test.

[The Straight Story]

19. There was no plane, and no bombs, it was all an illusion (paging the Dungeon...)

:rofl:

[Stinky The Clown]

20. K&R for your critical thinking

I have no idea if any of your posits are right or wrong. But at least you're thinking. Many of us who think get blasted for going counter to the herd. But that doesn't stop us from thinking.

Good for you!

[Edweird]

22. Firecrackers are not high explosives. If they were, you couldn't try your 'experiment'.

High explosives like PETN and C4 need a detonator. However, they work just fine in free air. C4 is used for breaching all the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRkzY2HTnmc&feature=related
Whether he had enough to bring the plane down or not is debatable. I guess we'll have to wait until the next time, since they are getting closer to success each attempt.

[jmowreader]

37. And I've done breaching with C4.

Also cutting, another technique where the explosive isn't down in something. Most of the force of the blast goes AWAY from the target. You get around this by putting a shitload of explosive on the target--way more than you'd need otherwise.

The guy who showed me how to blow shit up was a Special Forces engineer named Staff Sergeant Roy. (Roy was his last name. I don't remember his first, sorry.) He gave us a demonstration of the difference between open-air and enclosed blasts. We first set up a blast with the charge on top of a piece of concrete. He just took a little hunk of it, capped it and set it off. There was damage, but not enough to really bitch about. He then took a smaller hunk of it and set it off with a concrete casting that I believe was a concrete railroad tie on it. It blew the living shit out of the target AND the concrete railroad tie.

The problem with THIS blast isn't that it was in free air. He probably could have laid the charge on top of the fuel tank, set it off and taken the plane out--the energy from the detonation would have done it. The problem was it was way the fuck away from the tank. You know how kids joke about blowing up the school? Imagine trying to do it by dangling a rope from a light fixture in the hall, then tying a stick of dynamite to the end of it. You'd probably blow out half the windows, but the school would still be there. (You would be going to reform school next year, but your old school would still be there.) That's about what this guy did.

[Edweird]

43. I can't really see the fuel tank being a major factor either way.

I think they were just trying to rupture the hull. An airplane is nothing more than a pressurized aluminum tube. A sufficient amount could easily overwhelm the structure, leading to bodies tumbling out of the sky to their death below. They obviously haven't worked out all the details, but clearly they are still trying.

[dysfunctional press]

23. a guy on the ground near the airport approachway with an rpg would be more effective.

:shrug:

[jmowreader]

38. Even better...

In the service we used to talk about taking out a Hind (the original weapon of mass destruction) with a big flashlight. You could probably do that with a commercial airliner if it was dark enough.

[EFerrari]

24. Sounds like a case for Martha Stewart!

:patriot:

[dhpgetsit]

25. He accomplished his mission.

We are all in panic mode and taking expensive steps to tighten security.

[jmowreader]

39. Well, this is true

And as we all know, every time we get scared out of our pants the terrorists win.

[dhpgetsit]

45. That's the whole idea.

They don't have to kill one person to make us fear for our lives. We should put this in perspective. We should be a lot more terrified by cars than by people with flammable underpants.

[tekisui]

50. And a renewed push to expand the waronterra.

[hunter]

27. Moron's dad reports him to U.S. Embassy

U.S. spooks recruit moron to perform comical pants on fire "terrorist" act.

Sounds about right to me.

[undeterred]

28. Maybe he was selected for special characteristics of his scrotum.

:shrug:

[Boxerfan]

29. Or...the makers of full body scanners wanted to get a boost for their contract??

I wouldn't put it past the current crop of corporate criminals.

[Warren DeMontague]

35. That's a "Dirty Bomb" if I've ever seen one.

Or maybe a Doody Bomb.

[slackmaster]

40. Your knowledge of explosives is not just limited, it's non-existent

Explosives have to be contained somehow to develop their full potential

That is not true for high-order explosives like PETN. A container may alter the results by providing shrapnel, but confining a high explosive does not increase its potential in the slightest. PETN detonates with a velocity of 8,400 meters per second. Anything nearby is not going to be able to tell that it wasn't hit by a solid object going that fast.

PETN requires two sources of energy to explode--heat and pressure. A blasting cap provides both.

Like many commonly used explosives, PETN is shock-sensitive. Shock is required to set it off. Heat will NOT set it off reliably.

The overpressure (shock wave) from an 80-gram charge of PETN is easily powerful enough to punch a hole in the skin of the aircraft, which at flight speed can be sufficient to cause the plane to disintegrate.

I think if AQ was really interested in blowing up a plane in flight they could figure out a way to do it. But instead they try this. I don't think so.

On this we agree. My first response was to speculate this was the work of a lone nut case.

[Truth2Tell]

42. K&R, was thinking this before I saw your post. nt

[live love laugh]

46. "...an American conservative or group of them set the guy up..." I thought that right away.

I'd like to see how he makes out--with the possibility looming that he'll talk.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm

[Echo In Light]

49. Perhaps. Although the general rule of thumb is, outside the US, small strikes, inside, BIG ones

Getting by w/a little help from their 'friends.' ;)

[bvar22]

47. Just a minor point,

but I believe that fuel tanks on commercial airliners are now charged with an inert gas as they empty, effectively rendering then Non-Explosive.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/16/world/americas/16iht-fly.4.14552694.html

Though I agree, something here smells very bad.

The coincidence of Obama attacking Yemen, then THIS "terrorist" attack coupled with the 24/7 Media Blitz of Terror!...Yemen!..Terror!...Yemen!.....
I've seen this movie before.
I KNOW how it ends.

[Blue Owl]

48. Wow good thing the war on terror is working

All the billions we've spent blowing up Iraq and Afghanistan -- while meanwhile the real terrorists are defeated by a couple passengers.

[tekisui]

51. He had the material, but not the training.

This wasn't any kind of organized attempt. It was one idiot who got a hold of some dangerous compound that he didn't know how to use.