PREVIEW OF THE JOBS REPORT

[AllentownJake]

The forecast looks for the economy to finally begin a true expansion in 2010 as business gradually starts adding workers, lifting spending on equipment and software, and eventually rebuilding inventories.

Next Friday’s labor market report is expected to mark a milestone in this transition with the first month of payroll growth since December 2007. To be sure, the December forecast looks for modest job growth of only 40,000 and for
the unemployment rate to hold at a lofty 10.0%. But continued declines in initial jobless claims since the week of the December labor market survey and improvement in most employment surveys point to a gradual increase in
monthly job gains in coming months.

Leading indicators of unemployment suggest that there are two offsetting effects at work. On one side, the drop in continuing jobless claims indicates that unemployment among people out of work less than six months is still probably moving down. On the other side, longer term unemployment has not shown any signs of even leveling off. Also, participation rates have fallen very sharply in recent months, and as the labor market begins to improve there is a risk that job searchers will return to the market, thereby pushing up measured unemployment.


Of course, it’s important to keep things in perspective. The recovery on Main Street remains largely non-existent or tepid at best. The severity of the problems we are confronted with are best visualized in the jobs market. Although we might actually produce a gain in jobs this month it is a drop in the bucket compared to the number of jobs lost during this recession. The road to recovery remains a long and difficult one.



http://pragcap.com/preview-of-the-jobs-report

I expect the U3 number to go down because the number of people they count as in the job market to decrease. Unemployment won't have decreased it will be a statistical trick for propaganda purposes. It doesn't reflect reality (well the U3 number itself is a statistical trick so not surprising).

That being said, the bleeding is stopping. The question is, does the patient walk again.

[TexasObserver]

1. Recommend

That's the news I've been hoping for.

Let's hope this is a firm signal.

[AllentownJake]

2. Two things I'm watching

are Treasury Bond sales and interest rates and the Housing Sector. This entire recovery has been funded by government debt, and a single that government debt is becoming more costly to finance is bad news. We don't just have to finance new spending but the rollover of our debt from previous deficits.

A lot of people have been predicting another price collapse around April-June as the shadow inventory becomes real inventory.

[TexasObserver]

3. I just had a long talk about that yesterday.

Government debt will continue to rise. As Krugman's recent column foreshadows, we will need another Stimulus package of $700 billion THIS year. Paul always favored a stimulus package twice the size of the original package. I have always felt the same, and remain in agreement with him. The stimulus package wasn't too big. It was too small. But the deficit spending has to push interest rates higher, because government instruments to finance the debt require interest rate returns the market will accept.

Simply put, we're a borrower who needs more money, and those who provide that money will demand a higher return. That means the new issues will have to pay a higher interest rate to even get sold. Then those sales will cause bond values to drop, as instruments with lower returns see their long term value dissipate.

I remain optimistic about job recovery this year, but I do think there's a good probability we will see a pretty bad dip during the next 5-6 months.

[AllentownJake]

4. I don't want them to take on more debt unless they are going to invest it

in the right places.

Another tax cut, pothole filling brigade, or other nonsense is not what we need right now. If they want to do technological investment in energy and communications, public transportation, fix our bridges, and provide low interest loans to small businesses, I'll be behind a second stimulus. If they are going to be subsidizing golf carts and Toyota Motor Company again, I'm not going to support it this time.

[fasttense]

5. Since the last 10 years has created NO new jobs

We have the 13 million people added to the civilian works force to find jobs for.

It just occurred to me. Raygun changed the employment numbers by counting the military as people employed. So, when the BLS counts the total "civilian" work force are they including the people in the military? I doubt it - otherwise the word civilian would not be included. So, the people in the military are counted as employed and reduce the unemployment rate but they are NOT included in the total number of the workforce, reducing the unemployment rate yet again.

[AllentownJake]

6. The Department of Labor stats are so manipulated

Finding truth in them is hard, it is in there though for the investment class like all Government reports. You need to know how to translate them, otherwise they are propaganda, and you are correct, Raygun is the person who started that trend.

I call it hiding truth in plain sight. It is an old technique ironically enough, invented by Moscow.

[TSstate]

7. Producing Jobs

I saw this graph yesterday. Now I'm not sure what all is considered a "production job", but it makes you wonder whether the US can continue it's spending (public and private) if the amount of people in our workforce producing things continues to drop. How can we afford all these service jobs if there's no production behind it?



Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-goods-producing-wrokers-vs-government-payroll-2010-1

[AllentownJake]

9. The national debt silly nt.

[TSstate]

11. The national debt

So I'll get to pay for it? 20 something=TSstate hah

[tritsofme]

8. On the contrary, we may continue to see U3 tick up even as the jobs picture brightens

over the next several months, as discouraged workers rejoin the labor force and give the appearance of a higher unemployment rate.

[AllentownJake]

10. They will hide them this month

look for the U3 number of people in the job market to dip down. You'll know thy are flat out lying if that number continues to decline in February, March, and April.

[tritsofme]

12. If U3 does tick downward, it will likely be a negative indicator

If we find that people are still exiting the labor force, the administration might tout the number as a positive, but White House politicking doesn't reflect on the work of the career civil servants at the BLS, who I think you are far too hard on. But then again, I don't consider the BLS or the federal government to be a criminal organization.

But we see tomorrow, I know I will be watching bright and early.

[AllentownJake]

13. They do as directed

There has been a redefining of the U3 by politicians for the past 30 years to give newspeek to the media outlets.

If the administration hires an economist who says tweek the statistic and the labor secretary says tweek the statistic, the workers there tweek the statistic.