Arkansas Dem Rep. Vic Snyder Retiring

[cal04]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/01/arkansas-dem-rep-vic-snyder-retiring.php?ref=fpblg

Rep. Vic Snyder (D-AR) has announced that he is retiring from the House.

This could very well be a tough one for Democrats to hold on to. Snyder was first elected in 1996, and has not had a tough re-election fight since his initial 52%-48% win, but his district has swung significantly to the Republicans underneath him. It voted 54%-44% for John McCain in 2008, and 51%-48% for George W. Bush before that -- part of the Southern belt of districts that went against the national trend, swinging further Republican in 2008.

A SurveyUSA/Firedoglake poll released yesterday showed Snyder losing re-election to Republican candidate Tim Griffin, who had a brief and controversial tenure as a U.S. Attorney in 2007 during the U.S. Attorney firing scandal.



BREAKING: Vic Snyder is out
http://www.arktimes.com/blogs/arkansasblog/2010/01/breaking_vic_snyder_is_out.aspx


http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2010/01/ar-2-snyder-d-to-retire.html

[highplainsdem]

1. I saw the FDL story about that poll, & Nate Silver's blog attacking it.

FDL blamed the HCR bill and especially the unpopularity of the individual mandate for Snyder doing so much worse in their poll than in another one two months ago.

Silver criticized the poll questions, but he seemed to be arguing mainly that the mandate would be more popular if only people understood how important it is -- he criticized the poll questions for not providing more context (and, I guess, some defense of the mandate). I think he's kiddng himself there.

Is there any other Dem in that district with a chance of winning?

[FBaggins]

2. That race was a tossup already

Which could easily be why he quit.

It's a likely republican pickup now. One of Rove's hitmen was already leading by double digits in one poll.

Man! That's five house seats in just a few weeks?