Who's ahead, Brown or Coakley? Depends on the poll

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/is_brown_pullin.html

January 16, 2010 06:59 PM

By Michael Levenson, Globe Staff

No one could blame a Massachusetts voter for being confused about which way the electorate is leaning these days. A raft of polls over the past two weeks have offered widely varying snapshots of voter sentiments looking ahead to Tuesday, when they go to the ballot box to choose between Attorney General Martha Coakley, state Senator Scott P. Brown and independent Joseph L. Kennedy.

The polls are all attempting to measure the same thing, but they use widely different methodologies. Some are more scientific than others, and some are sponsored by partisan groups with an interest in the outcome.

"God, what a puzzle," said Mark Blumenthal, editor and publisher of pollster.com, who has been sifting through the results of eight polls released this month. "My advice to a voter would be to say that the only thing we can say with any scientific precision is that it's looking like it will be a close race, and go vote if you want your voice to be heard."

Pollsters love to argue, in any race, about which methods best determine who is likely to vote. An added concern this time around is how to fix on likely voters in a rare special election held in mid-winter.

“No one really knows anything about the electorate that is going to show up,” Blumenthal said. “We don’t have any experience with special elections held in Massachusetts in early January.”

In the past week, one poll showed Coakley, the Democrat, leading Brown, the Republican, by 14 points. But that poll was conducted by a longtime Democratic pollster, Mark Mellman.

FULL story at link.