MA DUers: What do you think the turnout is going to be on Tuesday?

[Hello_Kitty]

Special elections, even for a Senate race, are notoriously low turnout but are the voters in MA more motivated than usual for this race? What percentage of voters do you expect to come out to vote?

[Grand Taurean]

1. Not from MA (orginially from CT)

This election has fired up the GOP base.
Independents are going 60% for Brown.
Will the Democrats show up to vote, or will they let Chris Christie, I mean Scott Brown win?

[Hello_Kitty]

4. But the NJ race was a regular election, not a special one.

A special election can more accurately be compared to a typical primary race, where the highest efficacy voters show up. Is the Scott Brown teabagger effect enough to overcome that, considering MA's Democratic advantage? Isn't he just motivating hardcore Republicans to get the polls, which they would have done anyway? :shrug:

[Grand Taurean]

6. I will try to find the link

MA Voters in RAW NUMBER estimates:

Democratic: 1,600,000
Republican: 575,000
Independent: 2,000,000
Minor: 50,000

Most polls are showing that Independents will comprise 35%-40% of the electorate.
Will these independents show up to vote in such large numbers due to the current state of the nation/economy?
Or will they make up a smaller percentage of the electorate (20% or so)?

[dkf]

7. That independent number scares me.

That is a swing vote for or against hcr.

[Hello_Kitty]

8. Wow! That's a lot of independents!

What's their voter efficacy in mid-terms and off-years? Do they turn out in big numbers? Here in AZ Independents are slightly less than a third of our electorate and rarely make much of a difference in primaries (despite the fact that they can request either ballot) or local/special elections.

[Grand Taurean]

11. These independents vote Democratic in most cases.

Though you did have GOP governors Weld, Celucci, and the horrible Romney.
How many of them are going to vote is my question.

[MUAD_DIB]

13. Weld origianally ran against Silber.

Silber was a hated man that didn't know how to show emotion for anybody, and at one point laughed at a constituent on camera.

Romney ran against Shannon O'Brian who ran a somewhat dirty campaign, and guess what? She was also not liked. She came off as mean.


I was an independent until 2000...then I became a Dem.

[Grand Taurean]

14. So what are Coakley's chances of victory then?

[MUAD_DIB]

15. Well, She's not hated, she doesn't come off as an ass, she is the

MA Attorney General so she has some state name recognition.

Scott Brown is a Republican, and people in MA are still smarting from what the Republicans have done to them and the country.


I'd give her a 60% chance of pulling it off.

[Grand Taurean]

16. Thanks.

I know the "liberal" media has not been kind to her.

[MUAD_DIB]

17. THe "LibRul" Media loves a horse race, and if they have to

manufacture one then they will.

[BlueState]

2. At a party tonight ...

I was told by 4 people that they weren't planning to vote until they heard that a republican could take Ted Kennedy's seat.
They will now definately vote for Coakley, a candidate all were unexcited by. I realize that this anectodal.

I believe this is what is happening. The Republicans see a chance to win and are fired up. The Dems thought they couldbe
complacent and are now finding out otherwise. I don't see independents as a factor. They won't vote in significant numbers
and are being oversampled in the polls.

It's about turnout. The Dems have the advantage of numbers but they need to be reminded they have to vote.

[MannyGoldstein]

3. +1 nt

[Hello_Kitty]

5. That's what I think too.

Don't want to get complacent but I really don't think independents are going to be that much of a factor in this election, based on my past experience with small, local elections. Which is what this is, despite all the MSM focus on it.

[bemildred]

9. Why do we have elections on Tuesday anyway?

Why not on the weekend, or over several days so that as many people as possible can vote?

[Hello_Kitty]

10. Vote By Mail needs to be implemented in every state.

We're a 24/7 workforce, like it or not. Here in AZ we have mail in ballots and now more than half of our voters vote that way, with the percentage going up with each election. Plus, when you have elections with really long ballots - lots of initiatives and judges - it's much easier to do it from home where you can research everything thoroughly and know you are casting the right vote.

[MUAD_DIB]

12. I have never missed an election: special or otherwise.

I hope that the good people of Massachusetts will come out in sufficient numbers to give Martha Coakley a clear and decisive win on Tuesday.

I'd peg the turnout at 50-60% given all the press.

[WCGreen]

19. I missed my first one last november....

I was in the hospital and on some pretty heavy duty drugs so I thought it best not to vote. Mainly issues and non contested local races. Still, I feel bad about it even though I know I did the responsible thing...

[old mark]

18. Around 20-22%, Coakley wins. I hope she has the ability to learn from her stupidity.

She has been a lousy AG and a terrible campaigner. I think she was a very bad selection to run for Ted's seat, but she is a machine Democrat so she got all the help.

She is an arrogant fascistic asshole, but she is better than Brown and I hope she wins.


mark