What Happened to Polls In New Hampshire?

[NJmaverick]

Remember this?

Hillary Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire was a shock to anyone who followed the pre-election polls. At Rasmussen Reports, our final numbers suggested a 7-point victory for Barack Obama. In the end, Clinton won by three. Other polls also foreshadowed a solid victory for Obama, some projecting a double digit margin. The campaigns themselves expected a significant victory for Obama (the Clinton campaign was even saying that anything less than a double-digit loss would be a victory of sorts for their candidate).
It is hard to remember a time when the polling and expectations were so universally different from what really happened. At the same time, It is worth remembering that polling was generally on target for the Republican race. John McCain won, as expected, by splitting the Republican vote with Romney and winning big among Independents. Independents accounted for 37% of the Republican Primary voters, a bit higher than projected.
So what happened with the polling on the Democratic race? There are several possibilities.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/what_happened_to_polls_in_new_hampshire

[BeyondGeography]

1. Scottso's walking away from the curling iron this evening

Tells you his numbers with women took a hit with that one.

Yes, and New Hampshire reminds us that their support (or lack thereof) translates into votes.

[clear eye]

2. There are a lot of theories on that one.

None of them pretty.