Six Scenarios for the Massachusetts Vote and After

[Better Believe It]

Six Scenarios for the Massachusetts Vote and After
by John Nichols
January 19, 2010

Here are six scenarios for today's special election for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of Edward Kennedy.

FIRST: NOTHING CHANGES.

Democrat Martha Coakley wins with relative ease, thanks to the Democratic advantage in traditionally-blue Massachusetts and a lot of last-minute scrambling by frightened party activists and their union allies. As such, the Democrats maintain their 60-seat majority in the Senate and the flexibility they need to pass some sort of health care reform – which they do with little reflection on the scare they have just been through.

SECOND: SOMETHING CHANGES FOR THE BETTER.

Coakley wins, but by a very narrow margin in a state that sends an entirely Democratic delegation to the Congress and that voted for George McGovern for Pete's sake.

THIRD: SOMETHING CHANGES FOR THE WORSE (Coakley Mix)

Coakely wins by a narrow margin and conservative Democrats – along with their echo chamber in major media (not Fox, but the broader punditocracy that is so inclined to police politics toward the center) – spin the fantasy that their Massachusetts nominee got into trouble because Obama and Congressional Democrats have been too bold, too ambitious, too liberal.

FOURTH: SOMETHING CHANGES FOR THE WORSE (Brown Mix)

Republican Brown wins by a narrow margin. Democrats misread the result as evidence that the president's attempt at populism did not resonate – as opposed to recognizing that it came too late. They steer to the right, with even more vigor than if Coakley had prevailed. In this scenario, Democrats seriously dumb-down or even abandon health-care reform while doing little of what is necessary to revive the economy.

FIFTH: EVERYTHING CHANGES FOR THE WORSE

Brown wins with ease. Democrats panic. They try to pass health-care reform before the Republican is certified or, worse yet, they try to game the rules of the Senate in order to get around the 60-seat hurdle that they foolishly accepted when they thought they had the votes.

SIXTH: DEMOCRATS GET THE WAKE-UP CALL AND CHANGE FOR THE BETTER

Brown wins and Obama and the Democrats recognize that they misplayed the hand they were dealt by voters in 2008. They do not abandon health-care reform, but they recognize that they must do it better – and they set a rapid but reasonable timeline to accomplish the goal.

Read the full article and more details on the six scenarios presented at:

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat/518367/six_scenarios_for_the_massachusetts_vote_and_after