Some estimates on what would help Martha win:

[Betty Karlson]

As we are still waiting for the results to come in, we may want to avail ourselves of a few handy estimates on what every town and city in Massachusetts must more or less muster to keep the late Senator Kennedy's seat blue.

Swing State has provided us with just tyhat kind of information. A few quotes from this impeccably Democratic source:

"The county baselines post has become a game day staple at Swing State Project for advanced elections-returns-watchers, and today's no different. The basic idea here: find the bare minimum percentage in each major county that's necessary to get the Democratic candidate over the hump at 50%. (That, of course, is predicated on all the counties moving the same direction as the presidential election the benchmarks are based on, which doesn't actually happen in real life, but it's a rough estimate.) As election returns come in, compare the benchmarks to the actual returns to see if we're on track to win."

<snip>

"Rather than just one model, I'm using two different models: one based on the high-turnout, high-Democratic-intensity 2008 presidential election (won by Barack Obama, 62-36), and the low-turnout, low-intensity 2002 gubernatorial election (won by Republican Mitt Romney, 50-45) -- more generally, a best-case scenario for Dems and a worst-case scenario for Dems. With turnout projections high but not as high as yesterday (SoS William Galvin is predicting 40%), and weather mediocre, we're probably looking at something somewhere in between, so consider these the bookends. Nevertheless, after making the necessary adjustments, both models, in most towns, point to very similar benchmarks."

And the link:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/6234/masen-town-benchmarks