NH looking at a same-sex marriage repeal.

[cecilfirefox]

The story is here, via the AP.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GAY_MARRIAGE_...

In short, the House is looking at a same-sex marriage repeal(Via Constitional Amendment) that is not expected to make it to either chamber for a vote. However, with Republican gains likely in November it may be very possible that this could be passed.

How truly disappointing. I pray that this doesn't happen.

[cecilfirefox]

1. Anyone in NH have any predictions on the feel for the statewide elections? nt

[sarge43]

6. FWIW

My sense:

The Repubs will take back a few state legg seats, but not a majority. Governorship: Graniteheads pass it back and forth between the two parties. It's more an honor thing rather than a power position. So if there's a Repub gov next year -- BFD.

Congressional: If Hodes pulls out to run for the senate, much depends upon who the Dems put up for his seat. Shea-Porter (1st Dist) could be in trouble; northern NH is conservative. If the Repubs run a strong, popular candidate and give him/her support, could lose it.

Senate: Up until last night with both Gov Lynch and Hodes eying Jugghead's empty seat, I'd say it was a wash - two Senate Dems from NH. However, the Repubs may have the bit in their teeth now and work the hell to keep it.

The Dems have to stop screwing around -- this battle is never ever over and the Repubs take no prisoners.

[joeybee12]

2. We've got 10 months until November...

...that's a lifetime in politics...easy enough to get ahead and organzie and keep the repukes from gaining. My fear, however, is that the Dems rarely learn from their mistakes.

[cecilfirefox]

3. Im just terrified of this potential Republican wave. Its not something we can easily

change if they manage to make huge gains. I don't believe congressional parties have switched drastically in the federal legislature when the party in control is actually the opposite of that of the President. I just guess I'm in doomsday mode. Got to get it together!!

[Tesha]

4. It won't happen this session.

It might happen next session, when everything flips
back to Republican control (which it will unless a lot
of Dems pull a lot of their shit together right quick!).

At that point, it will hinge on whether Governor John
Lynch (faux-D) is still in office and whether he has the
balls to veto repeal (probably not; he us, after all, only
a fake Democrat).

Tesha

[cecilfirefox]

5. Im unsure if he can veto a bill calling for a constitutional amendment?? Is that possible? nt

[sarge43]

8. No the gov isn't involved in any way in the amendment process

However, amending the NH constitution is the equivalent of threading a needle on a rolling coaster during a Force 5 hurricane.

Two procedures

1. A 3/5 vote of both house needed to place proposed amendment on ballot. 2/3 of the voters required to pass. (Another fun fact, next to the US Congress and the British parliament, the NH General Court (legg) is the largest legislative body in the world, over 400 seats. Organizing that mob is moose herding -- with bears.)

2. A constitutional convention with 3/5 of delegates approving and again 2/3 voter majority.

As at least one third of this state has no problem with same sex marriage, an amendment to negate is unlikely to say the least.

Another thing everyone screws up when dealing this state: Graniteheads really, really don't like outsiders telling them what to do; they get cranky and contrary.

[Tesha]

9. Oh. If they're trying to do this via the CACR process...

It will take still longer. I don't know whether Lynch
can intervene or not.

And I don't know how the people will vote. Do you
know what threshold the vote has to reach? I'm pretty
sure it's more than a simple majority.

Tesha

[sarge43]

10. CACR process?

Well, for any amendment to pass and it has to go general ballot, 2/3 of the voters.

[cecilfirefox]

7. Looked up some info, the state house needs 240 votes to approve a constitional amendment,

The Senate needs 14.4, either 14 or 15.

In the House Democrats have 225 to Republicans 175. In the Senate they have a majority of 14 to a 10 seat Republican minority. It's possible they could win back the state house and still not have the votes to pass it. In the session where it was legalized 198 legislatures voted for marriage equality in the state house with a 176 against. They'd have to make major gains to get to 240 votes. As long we hold strong, minimize any loss, and lobby the hell out of our legislatures we should be all right.

There is a method to enact a constitutional convent, but I actually think the legislature wouldn't do that since it flays open the entirety of the constitution- not just one potential amendment.

[cecilfirefox]

11. Also, ballot amendments need 2/3's in NH.

After a proposed amendment has been placed on the ballot in NH it needs 2/3 approval from the voters to become law. If that were the case in every state where same-sex marriage has been beaten back then it would have never been banned in California or repealed in Maine. If the near split of opinion holds we would most certainly win if it was on the ballot.

[Tesha]

12. NHPR's story this morning implied that neither currently-anticipated action is a constitutional...

...amendment. One proposed action is a straight legislative
repeal of the equal marriage law. The other is to simply put
the question to the voters as a referendum.

Or maybe NHPR got that second alternative wrong?

Tesha