Will Obama get a bump in the polls after his SOTU speech?

[WeDidIt]

Historically, it doesn't really happen. Clinton got a bit of a bump once.

Some how, I think Obama is going to buck the historical trend with these things.

[Ninga]

1. Yes he will. n/t

[WeDidIt]

4. Obama has a way with being in a tight spot, then making a speech and breaking out.

I think HCR is going to move forward with the Senate bill passed as-is and a sidecar fix going through reconciliation in the Senate.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

2. Based on the instant polling last night, it's more than a bump...

Obama's riding a wave. One poll had 83% approval of the policies outlined in his speech.

83%. Holy Crap!

[FBaggins]

3. Yes

But it won't be as large as... or laste as long as... the ones Clinton used to get.

[madokie]

6. And you know this how?

[FBaggins]

9. A magic crystal ball obviously

??? We're talking about the future here... how could anyone be offering anything but their own opinion?


My reasoning is that President Clinton governed (and helped create) during far more attractive times for the average citizen. Soaring rhetoric wasn't followed three weeks later with "nothing has changed and things still suck!" - President Obama has no such luck. Few of the policies he outlined will impact daily lives any time soon (and many, as we've learned all too well) will even be defended against republican attack. A few weeks from now unemployment will still be way too high (etc) and the average Joe will have forgotten soaring rhetoric and replaced it with "what have you done lately".

Since he hasn't done much of anything... and isn't likely to leap out to a new New Deal next week... the warm fuzzies won't last.

President Clinton could point to a strong state of the union and take credit for much of it. President Obama is stuck having to explain why things still suck and that it's someone else's fault (and he has a plan to fix it). That just isn't the stuff of lasting popularity bumps. Sorry.

If/when his policies result in a dramatically improving economy? THEN poll bumps will linger longer.

[madokie]

11. Theres just to much stoopid in this world

as that clearly shows. sorry

[FBaggins]

12. Then let me simplify it for you

President Clinton mostly did things that the nation as a whole was happy with. Our current President is having trouble gaining support from anyone. The right has opposed him all along, the center sees no improvement in anything they care about after a year (despite spending ungodly amounts of their tax dollars) and the left feels stabbed in the back as the President talks a good game and then fails to follow through on almost ANY of their priorities.

The first President can expect poll bumps from big speeches to endure for a while because he a) has credibility and/or b) people's lives are generally better... the second President can't expect artificial poll bumps from nice words to last when the actions/results don't match the rhetoric. Additionally... life sucks for far too many and blaming the last guy (even correctly) only get you so far.

Got it now?

[madokie]

13. We have a much bigger media problem today is the difference

The media honed their knives on Clinton and are going after Mr. President Barack H. Obama with those sharp daggers drawn. And if you can see that....

bye by now :hi:

[FBaggins]

14. You must be new here.

You miss the high percentages of people on the left who are unhappy with the President? You think they're all blinded by the media?

Because if you can't see that... :)

Regardless. If you can't realize that it's easier to retain public support with historically low unemployment rates than with near-record high ones... you have bigger problems.

[madokie]

16. too much stupid for me so I go now

bye by :hi:

[FBaggins]

17. And yet you keep posting?

What a surprise.

About as much of a surprise as the fact that your posts lacked any actual content.

But hey... thanks for playing.

[old mark]

5. I just saw most of it this morning. I think is was much better than

what I understood it to be last night.

I think his numbers will rise, and I think the GOP congresspersons numbers will drop after the pinheaded, childish showing they made in teh chamber last night. They looked like spoiled nasty little brats.
I often wonder what kind of people would vote for them.

Many of the small number of Republicans I actually know are alcoholics and drug abusers, and were not too bright before that, but that's just a personal observation.
Rec.
mark

[optimator]

7. is he running for something?

the only time polls mean anything is for an election.
Time to stop watching and caring about daily changes in popularity.

[Ninga]

8. My opinion is that polls taken after the Mass. election clearly showed people were

not happy than enough has been done on HCR.

If the polls continue to materialize as they have this morning, then Obama has his answer.

[FBaggins]

10. The problem with that is that there WEREN'T any real polls done after MA

The polls that were released were all by organizations trying to spin the loss into meaning what they needed it to mean (to support their position).

There weren't any independent exit polls conducted in MA because when they would normally be setting up the poll, nobody expected the race to come within 15 points of mattering. By the time they knew it was for real, there wasn't enough time to do the job correctly.

[arthritisR_US]

15. I think he will. n/t