UPDATE: HCR Reconciliation Thread (WE HAVE 50!!!) WE HAVE THE VOTES!!!!

[Suji to Seoul]

Big maybe goes into the "definite" column. Cantwell of Washington finally took her crap and got off the pot.

We need at least 50 to force a Biden tie breaker vote. Including 41 GOP "no" votes, the count is 50 - 48 - 2.

Let's look at the 39 who have stated to use Reconciliation (according to Countdown). Let's assume we have those:
Feinstein, Kerry, Sanders, Brown, Whitehouse, Bennet, Burris, Gillibrand, Merkeley, Franken, Leahy, Schumer, Reed, Boxer, Udall, Mikulski, Shaheen, Lautenberg, Durbin, Specter, Casey, Dorgan, Cardin, Bingamen, Menendez, Wyden, Stabenow, Johnson, Feingold, Inouye, Carper, Levin, Klobuchar, Murray, Kaufman, Udall, Byrd, Cantwell, Reid

The following are definite "yes" votes (based on voting record, ideology and public speeches): (11 total yes votes)
Kohl - WI; Akaka - HI; Tester - MT; Harkin - IA; Webb - VA; Warner - VA; Dodd - CT; McCaskill - MO; Bayh - IN; Hagan - NC; Landrieu - LA

The following are definite "maybe" votes: (3) votes
Begich - AK (being a DEM in AK has advantages. He may be one term and we can use that for our advantage.)
Conrad - ND (Since I have not heard a peep from him, he's in the maybe section. Someone help me out.)
Baucus - MT (From cold to Lukewarm due to the growing support)

The following are the "no" votes, the Blue Dog, DINO-moles in the Senate: (6 votes)
Bill Nelson - FL (no completely. Too bought.)
Ben Nelson - NE (no completely. Too selfish.)
Pryor - AR (No chance for his vote. Too brain dead.)
Rockefeller - WV (WILL NOT SUPPORT RECONCILIATION. APPARENTLY THERE ARE NO POOR PEOPLE IN WV.)
Lincoln - AR (WILL NOT SUPPORT RECONCILIATION. APPARENTLY THERE ARE NO POOR PEOPLE IN AR.)
Lieberman - CT (WILL NOT SUPPORT RECONCILIATION. THIS MOLE NEEDS TO BE DROPPED FROM THE CAUCUS.)

We do not have it, but we are one vote away from a 50-50 with a Biden "yes" tie-breaker!!! Expect 41 no votes (44 with these DINO assholes).

Keep up the heat now on the YES votes: GET US BEGICH and EVERY "yes" vote! Let's get this across the finish line!!! WE ARE SO CLOSE!!!

[Craftsman]

1. The senate is not the issue, the house is.

As it stand we do not have the votes there.

[FBaggins]

2. It's more than that

You're certainly right that it's the House...

But we also need more than just 50 votes in the senate to say they support reconciliation. We need 50 to support whatever the specifics are that the House demands.

We may, for instance, find that 50 senators are willing to use the tool... but won't use it to change the abortion language (in which case the House may not vote).

[Zen Democrat]

3. That doesn't make sense to me. The Senate didn't adopt abortion language in their bill.

The House will DROP the Stupak Amendment, which is why that C-Streeter is now howling that he'll kill the bill without it. Rachel hammered him quite effectively last night. A little visit to the Ethics Committee may be in his future with questions about the $600 he was spending for his residence and meals at the C-Street House, when the market for that location and services would be in the $2,500-$3,500 per month range. Who's been paying the freight for Stupak and has he disclosed his benefactor?

[FBaggins]

6. If the Senate bill could pass the House, we wouldn't be having this conversation

The House would just pass it. No reconciliation necessary.

The problem is that it isn't acceptable to the House... so the plan is to convince the House to pass it anyway with a promise that the Senate will tweak it through reconciliation.

The House will DROP the Stupak Amendment,

I don't know... I'm not sure that it passes without it. We may not like the characters who are making the threat, but they may very well have the votes to carry it through.

The key here is to find a version that can pass the House that also has 50 senators willing to go through reconciliation to create...


...and of course what ever comes out has to be good enough that it can "sell" to the broad population as worthy of an end-around on the rules.

[harun]

9. Hey, Senate can simply pass the House's HCR and we'd be good to go.

Senate is always the issue.

[berni_mccoy]

4. No. Until you hear all of those 11 say they will vote on it, you DON'T have all the votes.

You are making 11 assumptions you don't know for certain.

[ShortnFiery]

5. +1000. eom

[Suji to Seoul]

7. .If you follow any of my thread, those 11 "yes" votes means "leans yes"

but your rather snide and flippant criticism is duly noted.

[berni_mccoy]

8. Leaning does not mean "WE HAVE THE VOTES". Sorry, but until each one confirms it, you can't say that

[Suji to Seoul]

12. Again, thank you for flippant, haughty, snide and rather aloof attitude in your response

Your criticism of my analysis is duly noted. Care to add something constructive now?

[upi402]

10. Rockefeller - WV disappoints me... but Yay if it ends up true!

Good for us, good for them!:bounce: :patriot:

[AlinPA]

11. ??? Hagan, Landreiu and Dodd should be in the "probably no" category.