Roubini Global Economics: Unemployment will rise to around 10.8% in first quarter 2011

[Better Believe It]

United States: Labor Market
How Far is the U.S. Economy from Showing Job Gains?
March 5, 2010

Overview: Despite the significant slowdown in job losses since H2 2009, payrolls have continued to contract, with total jobs lost during this recession exceeding 8 million. While leading indicators of hiring like the average workweek and temporary hiring are picking up, initial and continuous jobless claims have leveled off above levels consistent with a stabilization in payroll employment. Indicators of hiring and strong productivity suggest that job gains during the recovery will be well below what is required to absorb the growing labor force and discouraged workers reentering the workforce, thus keeping the unemployment rate high. Large unemployment duration and permanent job losses in some sectors will also weigh on the labor market recovery.

RGE View: Payrolls will show positive print starting in late Q1 2010 or early Q2 2010, led by the government's census-related hiring. This will contain the rise in the unemployment rate during H1 2010, but hiring in the private sector will grow sluggishly in 2010 and will be insufficient for the 100,000-125,000 jobs that need to be created every month to absorb the increasing labor force. Weak hiring will cause the unemployment rate to rise through H2 2010 and peak at around 10.8% in Q1 2011. (02/09/10) ( Analysis: RGE, Christian Menegatti, Mikka Pineda, Arpitha Bykere and Prajakta Bhide 2010-02-09 00:00:00 United States: Q1 2010 Outlook )

http://www.roubini.com/briefings/47208.php#47210

[w4rma]

1. I trust this analysis. (nt)

[AllentownJake]

2. I wonder if he's figured out when the next debt bomb goes off

Wish I could, never have to work another day in my life.

[Bolo Boffin]

3. Gah.

A disaster for the Democrats in the midterm.

[Better Believe It]

4. The 15 billion dollar tax-cut jobs bill that doesn't create any jobs will take care of that.

[Greyhound]

5. 2001 - 2010, zero net job creation.

Three successive Republik administrations laid the ground work for this, the crowning achievement of their "economic theory".

The first time in our history we have accomplished this.