The Democratic Field - A survey of candidates

[quinnox]

Contenders (strong probability of winning nomination)

1. Barak Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. John Edwards


comment: I would put Obama as the front runner at this time, with Clinton just behind. Edwards within striking distance. Any of these three has a real chance to win. Edwards would have the widest appeal in a national election.

Dark horses (small probability of winning nomination)

1. Joe Biden
2. Bill Richardson
3. Chris Dodd

comment: Out of this group, Biden has by far the most potential to move up. If any of the top three fade or make a major blunder, Biden could take their place. Richardson and Dodd have slim chances to move up, and would need some lucky events and turns in the campaign to do so.

Dead-enders (no probability of winning the nomination)

1. Dennis Kucinich
2. Mike Gravel


comment: these candidates have virtually no chance to win the nomination. Gravel is the kookiest candidate, and should be excluded from future debates, otherwise he serves to make the Dems look bad.
Kucinich brings up some good points, but lacks mainstream appeal.

Undeclared candidates (rumored to possibly run)

1. Al Gore {strong contender}
2. Wes Clark {dark horse}
3. Gary Hart {dead-ender}
4. John Kerry {dead-ender}

comment: The first category by these names is the probability of the person entering the race, the second is the section they would be in if they did join.


Comments are welcome.

[patrice]

1. I think running a horse race seriously damages the discourse.

ALL of these candidates should be constantly trying to HEAR all of us.

ALL of us should be constantly trying to be heard and also listening for feedback about who and what we are from ANY of them.

It is WAY to early to seal ANY deal.

[MH1]

2. "dead-ender"?

I guess that tells me all I need to know about you.

FWIW, there is zero chance that Kerry will run in 2008, he has said on numerous times that he will not.

I don't know about Gary Hart, I'd say of late entries, he has as much chance as any of them - which is near zero because of the money dynmaic UNLESS something absolutely cataclysmic happens to take out all the declared candidates.

[quinnox]

4. whats wrong with the phrase dead ender?

It fits in my opinion.

[MH1]

7. It's insulting. It's incorrect, too

Kerry would be second tier at least; if the Democratic establishment hadn't screwed him over last fall (with explicit and not-so-explicit help from the Clintonistas) he would be first tier. But of course all is fair in love, war, and Democratic Party pre-primary underhandedness.

But since he has declared he ISN'T RUNNING (many times) why even ascribe anything other than "not running"?

[mikelgb]

3. Good Synopsis of the MSM groupthink

[ThomWV]

5. Its All Opinion and Your and Mine Are In Sync.

Anyone who tells you that there's nothing scientific about your choices and comments or says that it just reflects what the powers that be wish for you to think is just someone who disagrees with your comments. I say that because its all just opinion right up until the moment we cast votes.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

6. Alas, I have to agree with you - except for Gravel being excluded.

Clinton - Won't make it because of opposition of the left and her negatives.

Obama - Seen too much a "rock star". Lack of experience. But, as a fresh face, could make it.

Edwards - Somewhat more acceptable to the left thus able to be a "compromise" candidate between the left and right wing of the party.

Biden (aka the mouth that never closes)- is running for VP.

Richardson - The left likes his stance on the war but mistrusts just about everything else about him. He's also running for VP.

Dodd - Probably running for the VP slot.

Kucinich - most acceptable to the left but is only allowed to serve as the "conscience" of the party.

Gravel - A much needed gadfly to annoy the bigshots and stir alarmist warnings from the DLC'rs.

Hart and Kerry - Non-starting coulda' beens.

Gore - The 500lb gorilla in the mix. Acceptable to the left - acceptable (reluctantly) to the right. If he avoids the "political handlers" and the likes of Joe Lieberman as a running mate - Mr. President.

But, as usual, the money, media, and party bosses, will decide, in our "democracy".

[liberalpragmatist]

8. Disagree about Richardson

He has a better shot that Biden, I feel. Otherwise, I think your analysis is largely correct.