Top Economist Predicts Labor Shortage in U.S. by 2018

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/5461744-top-economist-predicts-labor-shortage-in-us-by-2018

By Mary Elizabeth Dallas Washington : DC : USA | Mar 23, 2010

In the wake of the worst slump since the Great Depression, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday the U.S. economy is expanding and jobs will be created, reports Bloomberg. While that may be great news for Americans who have long anticipated signs of recovery in the labor market, a leading economist is now predicting a labor shortage by 2018.

It may sound surprising given the recession, but Barry Bluestone, Dean of the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University projects there will be at least 5 million potential job vacancies in the U.S. and not enough people to fill them within eight years.

"If the baby boom generation retires from the labor force at the same rate and age as current older workers, the baby bust generation that follows will likely be too small to fill many of the projected new jobs," states Bluestone's report, After the Recovery: Help Needed - The Coming Labor Shortage and How People in Encore Careers Can Help Solve It. snip

Workers over 55 will be key to closing the labor gap, notes Bluestone. "Not only will there be jobs for these experienced workers to fill," Bluestone writes, "but the nation will absolutely need older workers to step up and take them."

[w4rma]

1. Is this his angle towards cutting social security benefits? (nt)

[Mari333]

3. yeah I thought that too..are we being set up?

cooould be. I wouldnt put it past the yahoos .

[midnight]

9. Or another angle would be to bring in cheaper workers to do the job. More foreign visas.

[Mari333]

2. oh, like I am going to believe what Tim Geithner says.

as for the baby boomers, interesting study by Barry Bluestone.

[NNN0LHI]

4. Tim Geithner didn't say it

[Mari333]

5. he didnt? first line

'In the wake of the worst slump since the Great Depression, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday the U.S. economy is expanding and jobs will be created, reports Bloomberg.'

I realize he didnt say what the title of the OP is.


I was referring to Tim's bounding idealism.

[dmallind]

7. That's just a lead in and unconnected to the main point

The idea that there will be a worker shortage in a fairly small timespan is not Geithner's.

Having said that I suspect the initial premise of boomers retiring at the rate of earlier generations may be questionable. Boomers who made reasonable investment choices and rebalanced portfolios as they aged may be able to, but those who either did not save or stayed in unbalanced equity heavy funds may have to wait a few more years, until they maximize SS at least and have time to recover somewhat from recent stock losses.

[Mari333]

8. I know its unconnected to the main point but when Tim makes any statement

regarding the welfare of the masses, it must be addressed and that is the first line in the story.

[closeupready]

13. Check is in the mail.

And the dog ate my tax return. And my secretary did it!

[Lost4words]

6. I have a problem believing this given the current trend of globalization.

I'm 55 now and cant get employers to give me a second look. I call BULLSHIT!

[Dappleganger]

10. That elf needs his head examined. nt

[CBR]

11. I met Dr. Bluestone at the Urban Affairs Association

Conference two weeks ago. Smart guy!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. Immigration will more than compensate.

A relatively aging populace does mean that all things being equal there will be fewer people in the domestically generated labor force going forward but since there are millions of people--some highly qualified--waiting to come here to join our labor force...

No factory will be idled for lack of labor.

If such a situation is looming business will ensure more immigration.

There may be places where demographics will cause actual workforce problems but this isn't one of them.

Dr. Bluestone is identifying a real effect, but one that will most likely never result in a labor shortage. It's like saying that the temperature in someone's apartment will become intolerably cold in the winter because temperatures go down a lot during the winter.

In the real world the tennant will turn on the heat at some point and adjust it on a day-by-day or hour-by-hour basis based on whatever she considers tolerable.

That said, it is useful to know that it gets cold in the winter. I have no problem with noting the effect, but extrapolating a shortage is a static exercise.

[The2ndWheel]

16. The Third World

Little more than baby factories to keep our system going. Because if developing countries ever become developed, then they'll end up with an aging population, the same as developed countries experience today.

[Yo_Mama]

14. His Assumption Is Flawed

"If the baby boom generation retires from the labor force at the same rate and age as current older workers, the baby bust generation that follows will likely be too small to fill many of the projected new jobs," states Bluestone's report, After the Recovery: Help Needed - The Coming Labor Shortage and How People in Encore Careers Can Help Solve It.

We are already seeing older people working much longer. For one thing, people won't be able to retire with "full" SS benefits until age 67. For another, in the prior generation far more people got pensions. That was dependent on the big corporation/manufacturing model. In this generation, far fewer people will get much in the way of pensions. They will make do with SS and their own savings. Anyone who is familiar with the federal data knows that households in the 55-64 bracket don't have nearly the required savings. Yes, some are prosperous, but most do not have the ability to retire without working.

There are about .7 average workers in the household 65-74 age bracket, so in fact we already see this. Just go to a hotel, a supermarket or a Walmart. Count the grey heads. The average household in this age bracket as of last data got about half their annual income from a job or self-employment.

There is another factor; changes to how CPI increases are calculated for SS has changed the effective amount of SS checks substantially. In any one year the effect is marginal, but over a decade it really mounts up.

Finally, there are changes afoot in both state and federal budgets that will likely cost retirees more money. State and local taxation is clearly on trend to increase long term. So many retirees will find that their monthly incomes are slowly being eroded.

More realistic projections show that the labor market will have trouble absorbing workers right through 2020, with some people suggesting 7-8% unemployment and high teen unemployment right through then.

[lumberjack_jeff]

15. Asshole.

This is preamble to a new round of "immigration reform" and H1B lobbying... because there *might* be some jobs a decade from now.

[notadmblnd]

17. So I just need to wait eight more years and I'll be employable again?

I guess we'll just have to eat dirt in the mean time. I was thinking of enrolling in a local college to obtain a medical billing certificate until I read an article here saying that insurance companies are going to off shore back many office operations. I imagine medical billing and coding will be one of them.:shrug:

[RaleighNCDUer]

18. "If the baby boom generation retires from the labor force at the same rate and age as current older

workers..."

That's a BIG 'if'.

The reason the current older workers are retiring as they are, is they were in a generation of low-population density - meaning they could get GOOD jobs with relatively little competition. That means they have been able to retire at 65 or earlier with comfortable expectation.

Most the boomers I know are doubting they will be able to retire at 67, and most who do will keep on with P/T jobs if they are physically able to, because the size of our generation constricted the availability of quality jobs, so our retirement savings are scant.

There will be no shortage of us boomers staying in the workforce well past retirement age. "Welcome to Wal Mart". "Welcome to Regal - that's the third screen on the left."