Biden predicts Democratic losses in the fall

[apples and oranges]

He said "reports of the demise of the Democratic party in November are premature," to applause, but also predicted Democratic losses in the fall. He said he would be more specific if not for the reporter in the room.

"We're going to have losses. ... Barack generated such an overwhelming turnout and enthusiasm, that we had the biggest turnout in history. It was gigantic. And a lot of really good Democrats got washed up on shore and all of a sudden were Congressmen, in districts that Democrats have no business having Congressmen. I'm not here to tell you we're gaining seats. But I'm telling you, we're going to go into the second half of our administration, with a solid Democratic majority in the House and the Senate, and with the wind at our backs."

He said Republicans were dishonest about their interest in health care. "The ace we have in our pocket is the Republican party. The Republicans concluded that their success lies in our failure."

He claimed that he knows of at least seven senators who want to vote with Democrats but were instructed by the party not to. "The American people are smart. They smell a rat. They know there was nothing about trying to get a better bill."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/25/biden-on-big-f---ing-deal_n_512555.html

[wisteria]

1. I like what he has to say-he is so right.

And, what a shame about those Republicans who wanted to do the right thing and were told to screw the American public for their party.

[berni_mccoy]

2. Only twice in history has a new President's party not lost seats in Congress

the first election after he came into Office. Rachel discussed this point on her show.

[Bicoastal]

3. And one was 2002, right?

9/11 gave Bush an ENORMOUS popularity boost by default, and well, you know the rest.

But when was the other time?

[Bicoastal]

4. Found it--1934. (Following another national catastrophe)

[Pab Sungenis]

5. Something to think about.

There wasn't as much of a coattail effect with Obama as there has been with some other Presidents. (Most of our gains had been made in 2006, and 2008 was just closing the deal.) It's the coattails freshmen who are the most vulnerable in the House, and the big Democratic bloc voted into the Senate in 2006 won't be up until 2012.

The first-term Senators up this year were elected in 2004, which saw a sizable swing to the Republicans (a four-seat gain), so the vulnerable first-termers this time around are Republicans.

My prediction? We lose 20 in the House, three in the Senate. Still a good-sized majority, and we'll reclaim a good number of those seats in 2012.