US sees non-OPEC oil output growth ending in 2011

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WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The world will become more dependent on OPEC oil beginning next year as the combined oil output from countries outside of the producer group begins to decline, the U.S. government said on Tuesday.

The Energy Information Administration said in its new monthly forecast that non-OPEC oil supplies will not sustain the 630,000 barrel-per day-increase experienced in 2009.

Output growth is expected to slow to 420,000 bpd this year when production reaches an average 50.7 million bpd and then decline by 140,000 bpd in 2011.

This year's growth in non-OPEC output reflects new projects in Brazil, the United States and the former Soviet states of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan offsetting declining production from mature oil fields in Mexico, the United Kingdom and Norway.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/idUKN1220555320100112?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

And this related bit from the UK:

Leaders at Closed-Door UK Meeting on “Inevitable” Peak Oil Crisis Weigh Possible Solutions to Energy Scarcity

According to a summary of proceedings, the http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/british-energy-minister-holds-closed-door-meeting-on-peak-oil323/">secret meeting that took place Monday between the British energy minister and the business taskforce responsible for last month’s provocative http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-the-report/2010-peak-oil-report/">peak oil report was indeed the beginning of an ongoing process to understand and prepare for the end of cheap oil.

“Although Chatham House rules prevent me from stating what the Minister said, there is clearly a desire to continue this dialogue on peak oil,” Rob Hopkins wrote on Wednesday on his blog Transition Culture. A prominent promoter of a movement that actively encourages and monitors societal structures based on a low-energy future, Hopkins joined colleague Peter Lipman as representatives of the Transition network at the closed-door meeting.

The meeting acknowledged the inevitability of both peak oil and government intervention, but focused on the role of transportation and technology-based solutions.

According to Hopkins’ summary, the presentations included an overview of the 2009 study from the UK Energy Research Centre, which concluded that peak oil was a near-term hazard; an oil industry perspective warning that $150 a barrel prices trigger recessions but also stating that high oil prices are necessary incentives for energy transitions; the http://peakoiltaskforce.net/">Peak Oil Task Force report that inspired the meeting; and a talk by himself and Lipman that shared case histories of “Transition Towns”—communities that have already developed measures to increase their energy efficiency and self-sufficiency in preparation for a world in which outside energy sources are decreasingly reliable.

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http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/leaders-at-closed-door-uk-meeting-on-%E2%80%9Cinevitable%E2%80%9D-peak-oil-crisis-weigh-possible-solutions-to-energy-scarcity325/

And one more...

Peak oil coming soon? Let’s see what it might look like

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Let’s look at some of the scenarios various experts have have imagined:

• A smaller, relocalised world. Jeff Rubin, former chief economist at CIBC World Markets, doesn’t envision the apocalypse, although he acknowledges, “much could go terribly wrong in this transition.” However, in his new book, http://www.jeffrubinssmallerworld.com/about-the-book/">“Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalisation”, he sees the potential for many silver linings: more farmers’ markets and less imported Atlantic salmon, more revitalised local factories and less stuff shipped from the ends of the Earth, fewer SUVs but a “more livable and enjoyable world.”


• In its latest report, the sustainability organisation Feasta is decidedly less cheery. http://feasta.org/documents/risk_resilience/Tipping_Point_summary.php">“Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production – An Outline Review” warns there’s a good chance our civilisation today is “on the cusp of a fast and near-term collapse.” “Appeals towards localism, transition initiatives, organic food and renewable energy production, however laudable and necessary, are totally out of scale to what is approaching,” writes author David Korowicz. While his study doesn’t lay out any clear answers, it still ends on a note of hopefulness: “There is much we can do. Not to prevent or defer a collapse, rather to prepare to some degree our selves and communities for some of its impacts … (T)he reality is that this is the most important, meaningful, and potentially liberating work that we have ever had to do, and it must be done right now.”


• The “think-and-do-tank” nef (the new economics foundation) sees declining oil — and other dwindling resources — as a call for http://www.neweconomics.org/publications/growth-isnt-possible">an end to endless economic growth and consumption. And, like Rubin, it sees that transition as a potentially good thing: “Such a new economy implies the need for a great ‘reskilling,’ for example in the food economy, and the growth of urban agriculture. Other adaptations could bring a range of social, environmental and economic benefits. A redistribution of paid employment via a shorter working week, tackling the twin problems of overwork and unemployment, would free up time for people to do more things for themselves, each other and the community, and reduce their dependence on paid-for services.”


• Some big-league business and energy players — including Virgin’s Sir Richard Branson — lent their names to the latest report from the UK’s Industry Task Force on Peak Energy and Oil Security. Released in February, http://peakoiltaskforce.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/final-report-uk-itpoes_report_the-oil-crunch_feb20101.pdf">“The Oil Crunch: A wake-up call for the UK economy” - PDF doesn’t welcome the idea of a sharp reduction in growth — something it sees as an invitation to “even deeper recession.” Higher oil prices, it warns, will bring Britons higher travel costs, higher food bills, higher heating bills and more expensive goods in general. To avoid such outcomes, the report states, the government needs to speed up the green-economy revolution and make plans to protect the public, especially the poor, from the cost impacts brought on by peak oil.

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http://www.greenbang.com/peak-oil-coming-soon-lets-see-what-it-might-look-like_13956.html


While think-tanks and other nations already take (or are beginning to take) this problem seriously, the United States, despite the warnings provided by Robert Hirsh, whom the Dept. of Energy commissioned a while ago http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/oil_peaking_netl.pdf">to study the problem - PDF, has no plan to mitigate this impending crisis nor does it even acknowledge there is a problem. And this is a problem that experts say takes 20 years to prepare for. So far, world-wide conventional crude oil production has not reached it's May, 2005 level of 82.09 million barrels per day and has been on a downward trend ever since. Which means that, unless oil production can once again reach those levels, world oil production has ALREADY PEAKED.

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1. Morning kick. How much longer are we going to ignore this problem? n/t

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2. This is a problem that will effect all of our lives and the lives of those you love! And,

you won't even look at it or discuss it. The fact that oil production has not increased in FIVE YEARS is at the very root of the today's economic problems and YOU JUST IGNORE THE ENTIRE ISSUE.

I don't know what else to do to get your attention about this problem!

If I'm wrong, then for God's sake at least tell me why! When this problem finally becomes an issue in this country like it is in Europe, I will remind you how you callously IGNORED this problem WHILE THERE WAS STILL HOPE OF MITIGATING IT. I will remind you how many times I've tried to bring this to your attention and you completely ignored it.

I simply do not understand how your government can tell you that oil production in ALL THE COUNTRIES OUTSIDE OF OPEC ARE PEAKING and you continue to ignore this problem.

When you people FINALLY get around to discussing this problem, and I promise you will, IT WILL BE TOO GODDAMNED LATE!