Why migrant workers are shunning China's factories.

[pampango]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8586672.stm

Finding a job in the city of Donguan in southern China is not hard at the moment. There is said to be a shortage of two million workers in this part of China. Across the road from the railway station a small employment fair, one of several open each day in the neighbourhood, is crammed with small desks. Behind each one sits a factory representative, eager to meet the new recruits to China's army of migrant workers.

Mike Wu, the production manager, says the wages he can offer used to be incentive enough to recruit people and keep them. But those days are over. "Nowadays, for workers, the difference between the wage you get inland and the wage you get here is not huge."

He also believes China's one child policy is influencing behaviour. "Many families are better off these days, partly because there's fewer mouths to feed," he says, "so younger workers would rather work nearer home, even if the wages are slightly lower."

"These migrant workers don't necessarily make more money in the coastal areas any more. If they come back they can look after their parents and their children. That really helps to build a harmonious society." Rising incomes in the countryside are creating new opportunities and mean more of these children will grow up without absent parents.



Sounds like these "inland" jobs are more domestic market-oriented, while the "coastal" jobs are the more export-oriented ones that China has relied on so far, but the "inland" ones rely on "rising incomes" to have a market to sell to. To the extent that their export companies are having more problems than those selling to the domestic market, that's a good thing.

If the Chinese leaders are smart (and so far they have been - ruthless and unprincipled too, but not dumb), they will realize that, like Japan, they are going to have to transition to a consumer-based economy (with an export sector as Japan, the US and Europe all have) and that may already be beginning to happen. I'm sure they hope to continue the tradeoff of "let us continue to govern oppressively and you'll get increasing economic prosperity", IMHO they can't achieve this with the same economic model that has worked for the last 20 years.