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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:38 AM
Original message
Many sailors on S. Korean torpedoed ship feared dead

South Korean sailors feared dead after navy ship 'torpedoed' off North Korean coast



A South Korean navy ship with 104 crew members on board is sinking off the coast of North Korea, according to the South Korean Yonhap newsagency.

A separate South Korean ship has reportedly fired at an unidentified ship sailing away from the area towards North Korea.

Seoul was investigating whether or not the unnamed vessel was damaged in a torpedo attack by North Korea, the Reuters news agency reported, quoting South Korea's YTN TV network.

The South Korean broadcaster SBS said that many sailors on the stricken ship were feared dead.

The ship is understood to have come into difficulties near the island of Baengnyeong, which is controlled by South Korea but is near the demarcation line between north and south.

Officials said an operation is underway in the Yellow Sea to rescue crew from the 1,500-tonne ship.

<snip>

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/26/south-korea-navy-ship-attack
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:44 AM
Response to Original message
1. This is disturbing on so many levels... eom
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proud2BlibKansan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:47 AM
Response to Original message
2. Wow this is just what we don't need right now
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hayu_lol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Saw one thread that stated that...
24 sailors were rescued.
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:51 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. Yes but doesn't it seem that N Korea usually does this sort
of stuff when it feels that its internal problems need outside help?

Are they in another famine?
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Anyone see Cheney?
Gulf of which affair?
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:50 AM
Response to Original message
3. NoKo issued a threat earlier today to launch "nuclear strikes" against ROK and US
Edited on Fri Mar-26-10 10:55 AM by leveymg
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36046278/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

N. Korea vows 'nuclear strikes' in latest threat
Pyongyang reacts to report that U.S., S. Korea plan for instability

By KWANG-TAE KIM
Associated Press Writer
updated 11:48 p.m. ET, Thurs., March. 25, 2010

SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea's military warned South Korea and the United States on Friday of "unprecedented nuclear strikes" over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country.

The North routinely issues such warnings and officials in Seoul and Washington react calmly. Diplomats in South Korea and the U.S. instead have repeatedly called on Pyongyang to return to international negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear programs.

"Those who seek to bring down the system in the (North), whether they play a main role or a passive role, will fall victim to the unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army," North Korea's military said in comments carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.




This situation is REALLY dangerous.

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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. Actually, North Korea _always_ talks like this. Really.
Edited on Fri Mar-26-10 10:56 AM by Poll_Blind
They talk so much brinksmanship smack, they actually have turned it into a kind of poetry which is still recognizable even after being translated into English.

If North Korea attacked Seoul there could be 100,000+ dead in Soul, within just a few minutes. This is using conventional artillery, btw, not nukes. The North Koreans know this would almost certainly get them nuked by the U.S., like very shortly thereafter.

So they shoot off their mouth a lot. They have far less wiggle room for military hijinks than Iran.

PB
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Yes, but they don't usually sink South Korean Navy ships. eom
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Yeah but they've actually had similar scraps int he same geographic area which is...
...disputed between the two countries. There is also the possibility that this was not a torpedo attack but a strike of a North Korean mine on the ship.

Obviously, very little information available at the moment. It's about 1AM in Seoul so in a very short period of time their major news sources will start pumping out more information.

PB
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #9
11. This is the most serious incident in 8 years. History of armed clashes since 1990>
1990s

* May 1992: Three Northern soldiers in South Korean uniforms are killed in Cheolwon, Gangwon-do; three South Korean soldiers are wounded.

* May 1995: North Korean forces fire on a South Korean fishing boat, killing three.

* October 1995: Two armed North Koreans are discovered at the Imjin River; one is killed.

* April 1996: Several hundred armed North Korean troops cross repeatedly into the Demilitarized Zone.

* May 1996: Seven Northern soldiers cross south of the Demilitarized Zone, but retreat after warning shots are fired.

* May and June 1996: North Korean vessels twice cross the Northern Limit Line and have a several-hour standoff with the South Korean navy.

* April 1997: Five North Korean soldiers cross the Demilitarized Zone in Cheolwon, Gangwon-do, and fire on South Korean positions.

* June 1997: Three North Korean vessels cross the Northern Limit Line and attack South Korean vessels two miles (3 km) south of the line. On land, fourteen North Korean soldiers cross 70 m south of the center of the DMZ, leading to a 23-minute exchange of fire.

* June 1999: A series of clashes between North and South Korean vessels take place in the Yellow Sea near the Northern Limit Line.

2000s

* 2001: On twelve separate occasions, North Korean vessels cross the Northern Limit Line and then retreat.

* November 27, 2001: North and South Korean forces exchange fire without injuries.

* June 29, 2002: Renewed naval clashes near the Northern Limit Line lead to the deaths of four South Korean sailors and the sinking of a North Korean vessel. The number of North Koreans killed is unknown.

* November 16, 2002: South Korean forces fire warning shots on a Northern boat crossing the Northern Limit Line. The boat retreats. The incident is repeated on November 20.

* February 19, 2003: A North Korean fighter plane crosses seven miles (11 km) south of the Northern Limit Line, and returns north after being intercepted by six South Korean planes.

* March 2, 2003: Four North Korean fighter jets intercept a US reconnaissance plane over the Sea of Japan.

* July 17, 2003: North and South Korean forces exchange fire at the DMZ around 6 AM. The South Korean army reports four rounds fired from the North and seventeen from the South. No injuries are reported. <6>

* November 1, 2004: North Korean vessels, claiming to be in pursuit of illegal fishing craft, cross the Northern Limit Line and are fired upon by the South. The vessels retreat 3 hours later.

* July 30, 2006: Several rounds are exchanged near a South Korean post in Yanggu, Gangwon.

* November 10, 2009: Naval vessels from the two Koreas exchanged fire in the area of the NLL, reportedly causing serious damage to a North Korean patrol ship.<7>

See also

* Korean War
* Division of Korea
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. I'm not disputing that it is but I am saying there's a very low likelyhood that...
...it would turn into a ground war. They can sink each others ships all day long in that disputed area but because of the way their particular knives-at-each-others-throats conflict is set up, everything's keyed to the border between them on land.

PB
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #13
17. You might find this to be interesting - OPLAN 5027 - US-ROK Combined Forces Command basic warplan

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027.htm
OPLAN 5027 Major Theater War - West

OPLAN 5027 is the US-ROK Combined Forces Command basic warplan. Under Operations Plan 5027 (CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027), the United States plans to provide units to reinforce the Republic of Korea in the event of external armed attack. These units and their estimated arrival dates are listed in the Time Phased Force Deployment List (TPFDL), Appendix 6, to Annex A to CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027. The TPFDL is updated biennially through U.S./ROK agreements. CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027 is distributed with a SECRET-U.S./ROK classification.

Pyongyang can credibly threaten the prompt destruction of Seoul with conventional arms alone. The North Korean military could also establish a shallow foothold across the DMZ. However, the DPRK's ability to sustain these offensive operations, or advance its forces further to the south, is questionable. South Korean and American air forces could quickly establish air supremacy and destroy North Korean ground forces. The ensuing buildup of US forces in Korea could reverse any remaining North Korean advances into the South, and unlease offensive operations into the North. North Korea does not require long-range missiles with nuclear, chemical, or biological warheads to devastate Seoul or to make a land grab across the DMZ. Such weapons are needed to deter or defeat an American counteroffensive into North Korea.

Pyongyang has the ability to start a new Korean War, but not to survive one.

North Korea has about 500 long-range artillery tubes within range of Seoul, double the levels of a the mid-1990s. Seoul is within range of the 170mm Koksan gun and two hundred 240mm multiple-rocket launchers. The proximity of these long-range systems to the Demilitarized Zone threatens all of Seoul with devastating attacks. Most of the rest of North Korea's artillery pieces are old and have limited range. North Korea fields an artillery force of over 12,000 self-propelled and towed weapon systems. Without moving any artillery pieces, the North could sustain up to 500,000 rounds an hour against Combined Forces Command defenses for several hours.

North Korea's short-term blitzkrieg strategy envisions a successful surprise attack in the early phase of the war to occupy some or all of South Korea before the arrival of US reinforcements on the Korean Peninsula. North Korean ground forces, totaling some 1 million soldiers, are composed of some 170 divisions and brigades including infantry, artillery, tank, mechanized and special operation forces. Of the total, about 60 divisions and brigades are deployed south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line. North Korea has deployed more than half of its key forces in forward bases near the border. Seventy percent of their active force, to include 700,000 troops, 8,000 artillery systems, and 2,000 tanks, is garrisoned within 100 miles of the Demilitarized Zone. Much of this force is protected by underground facilities, including over four thousand underground facilities in the forward area alone. From their current locations these forces can attack with minimal preparations. This means a surprise attack on South Korea is possible at any time without a prior redeployment of its units.

The North Korean navy has also deployed 430 surface combatants and about 60 percent of some 90 submarine combat vessels near the front line in forward bases. With about 40 percent of its 790 fighter planes deployed near the front line, the North Korean air force could launch a surprise attack on any part of South Korea within a short period of time.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea possesses larger forces than Iraq, and they are already deployed along South Korea's border. A war could explode after a warning of only a few hours or days, not weeks. Unlike in the Persian Gulf, this attack would be prosecuted along a narrow peninsula on mountainous terrain. It would probably be accompanied by massed artillery fire, commando raids, and chemical weapons. Initially, the primary battlefield would be only about 125 kilometers wide and 100 kilometers deep. The DPRK attack would be conducted against well-prepared ROK forces in fortified positions and against larger US forces than in the Persian Gulf. Most probably, the DPRK attack would aim at seizing nearby Seoul by advancing down the Kaesong-Munsan, Kumwa, and Chorwon corridors. If successful, North Korean forces might also try to conquer the entire peninsula before large US reinforcements arrive.

The South Barrier Fence is the Southern part of the DMZ. The South Koreans have a series of Defensive lines that cross the entire peninsula, but with the exception of the South Barrier Fence, they aren't connected completely across the peninsula. They are designed to withstand an attack and allow a minimum force to hold a line while reinforcement/counter attack forces are assembled and sent to destroy any penetrations.

The basic goal of a North Korean southern offensive is destruction of allied defenses either before South Korea can fully mobilize its national power or before significant reinforcement from the United States can arrive and be deployed. The primary objective of North Korea's military strategy is to reunify the Korean Peninsula under North Korean control within 30 days of beginning hostilities. A secondary objective is the defense of North Korea

SNIP
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Fascinating info, thanks. So yeah, in a situation like this it's not too...
Edited on Fri Mar-26-10 11:40 AM by Poll_Blind
...surprising to see skirmishes breaking out on other fronts, like the sea. If you haven't you should watch some YouTube of the DMZ (which usually covers some of this) or, if you have a little more time check out a semi-fluffy, semi-meaty video called "The Vice Guide to North Korea.

It's probably more fluff-y than not- for instance they overstate how sneaky they are to get into NK- but it's still a good introduction to the military situation there, also about how mindfucked North Koreans are by Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung (before him).

PB
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. I'm not sure of that. I seem to remember NK doing this sort of thing before
And I seem to also remember a south Korean attack on a stranded NK submarine.
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. I would say the real thing to be worried about is artillery fire from North Korea.
Edited on Fri Mar-26-10 11:22 AM by Poll_Blind
If you hear breaking news about that, that's the thing that means shit is going to hit the fan very quickly. NK has tens of thousands of artillery pieces pointed at Seoul. Purely from conventional weapons they'd have 10 million people in their sights. The conflict between the ships is a big deal but there is so much animosity between the two deadly scraps have frequently broken out, kind of like the disputed Kashmir (IIRC) region between India and Pakistan. In that case, it's tank movements that "mean something".

PB

OnEdit: Corrected the number of artillery pieces pointed at Seoul
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. You may be right about that. No reported use of artillery in recent decades. See above.
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. I just pulled up this quick snip from an article about the NK vs Seoul artillery situation
North Korea has more than 10,000 pieces of artillery aimed at the wealthy South and which could in a matter of hours destroy much of the capital Seoul, 25 miles (40 km) from the border.


The snip is from here but the analysis is pretty ubiquitous.

Anyway, with 10 million in Seoul if concentrated artillery fire starts coming from the North you'd be looking at about as many people dead in a few hours of artillery fire as from nuclear weapons. The U.S., Japanese and South Koreans would pretty much do anything to stop this, including using cruise missiles with conventional weapons or even low-yield nukes (because any fallout is going to waft over Japan) to stop that shit as quickly as possible.

That whole back and forth, if it ever happens, would go down in a very short period of time, maybe even less than an hour. North Korea (IMO) is really run by a madman and an aging out-of-touch one at that. So restraint or prolonged consideration are not things which would apply.

PB
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. US warplan envisions NoKo delivering 500,000 rounds an hour for several hours, but I think days.
Edited on Fri Mar-26-10 11:43 AM by leveymg
That, along with a broader offensive across the DMZ would end up killing many thousands of South Korean civilians. I doubt if there is any practical way, short of use of tactical nuclear weapons, of suppressing that many heavily fortified artillery pieces in a short period of time. What a nightmare.
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Poll_Blind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. Can you imagine what it must be like to live in Seoul? I know I used to have..
...nightmares as a kid about WW III between the U.S. and the (then) Soviet Union. I guess it isn't much different over there, really: Little kids going to bed and having nightmares about waking up to an Armageddon-like series of continuous explosions tearing apart their entire world.

(Shudder)

I really hate that shit. It's an obscene environment to grow human beings in.

PB
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. I had the same nightmares. Did "duck&cover" drills at school.
They tested the air raid sirens every Saturday afternoon at 2pm in my town, about 50 miles from Manhattan. There was a Nike Antiaircraft missile installation right next to the local High School.

Read a lot of bad fiction about WWIII when I was a kid. Had my last mushroom cloud dream during the Reagan Administration.
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greencharlie Donating Member (827 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:15 AM
Response to Original message
15. this IS a big deal... time to leave the West Coast for a weekend. nt
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NeedleCast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. Why?
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anigbrowl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #15
25. Don't be absurd
I'm here all weekend like all the time, and I'm pretty damn sure it's not going to involve a nuclear tan.
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chrisa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 01:51 PM
Response to Reply #15
28. Their nukes are duds.
At the very most, they'll make big splashes 30 miles from their intended targets.
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Nimrod1 Donating Member (25 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
16. 104 sailors?
This is deadly serious.
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Gwoppi Donating Member (42 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
23. 58 have been rescued
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truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 12:34 PM
Response to Original message
26. Gulf of Tonkin anyone?
...this could get interesting right quick..
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. Hardly. The South Koreans aren't interested in all out war
Nothing at all like the US seeking an opportunity to intervene in VietNam.
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truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. No, but the North Koreans might be...
..they have, what, 1 million troops within an hour of Seoul? There has to come a tipping point..
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HereSince1628 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. This is a game of brinksmanship
like a teenager's game of chicken it could go wrong, but...

NK's economy is horrible, what NK wants is help, but it must get that help in a manner that doesn't allow it to look weak to its own elite. The way to look good but also be supplecant is to use blackmail. Threaten, saber rattle, raise the stakes, do real harm, but be ready to accept a billion dollars in foreign aid and declare victory.
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truebrit71 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-26-10 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. Indeed it is...
..and that may well be the strategy at play here..
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