How long does it take to determine the cause of a sunken ship?

[tekisui]

I am genuinely curious of the process. The South Korean ship sank several hours ago. The initial report said a suspected North Korean torpedo was to blame. That claim was somewhat backed away from, and currently it is reported the cause is under investigation.

How long until they can say with certainty? How deep is the water?

The very nature makes it difficult to get information. Virtually nothing is coming in, though. Any thoughts?

[Captain Hilts]

1. It depends if there were other vessels listening to it, etc. nt

[orion007]

2. I would say the US will downplay/deny anything that points to

North Korea being responsible, and South Korea bowing to whatever the US says.
The world's financial markets could plummet,and the US would also have to hold NK accountable,which it never does.
Nada will come of this.

[tekisui]

4. Markets have already reacted.

http://productivityapps.itbusinessnet.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=1027787

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2611187120100326?type=marketsNews

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-rises-as-dollar-dips-on-greek-plan-2010-03-26?dist=countdown

My sense was, the backtrack was the start of tamping down on anything that could get nasty.

[Xipe Totec]

3. Not long. It's usually due to a hole in the hull nt

[old mark]

5. ...allowing the water in and the air out.....But as the old sailors used to say,

You are never more than 3 miles from land (straight down).

mark

[tekisui]

9. Thanks for that saying.

It gives me shivers.

[old mark]

10. ...why I spent 3 years in the Army - Hard to run away in mid ocean.....nt

[Posteritatis]

6. From seconds to decades, depending on the cause. (nt)

[Thothmes]

11. Believe it took over seventy years to determine

the cause of the sinking of the USS Maine in Havana Harbor.

[FarCenter]

7. I'd think that a first step would be to interview the survivors

That shouldn't take too long.

[anigbrowl]

8. About as long as it takes to determine the cause of a car accident

Sometimes it's obvious, sometimes not. Suppose, for example, that some kind of skirmish took place but the engine blew up at flank speed, or there was an explosion in the magazine; such things have happened before. At the minimum the bridge crew need to be found and debriefed.

Then, was the other ship following orders or was it captained by some trigger-happy lunatic? And so on.

[happyslug]

12. It took till 1976 to determine how the USS Maine blew up in 1898

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_%28ACR-1%29#False_flag_conspiracy_hypothesis

[tekisui]

13. In that case, I will exercise patience.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

14. That depends on a lot of things

Physical inspection is the typical place to start which can be complicated by the location.