If an oil deposit the size of Saudi Arabia's Ghawar (~170 Billion barrels) were to be discovered

[Subdivisions]

off our shores, how long would it last?

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1. Anyone? n/t

[Statistical]

2. Well we consume about 7 billion barrels of oil a year.

So the straight number would be 24.2 years.

However those kinda metrics are meaningless.

1)
If we discovered 170 billion barrels we may not be able to produce 7 billion barrels a year. Well pressure puts constraints on maximum amount of oil that can be economically extracted each year. So instead of 7 billion over 24.5 years it might be more like 4 billion over 48 years or it might be 3 billion over 60 years.

2)
We produce currently about 1/3? of our oil domestically. To replace 100% of imported oil we would simply need to produce around 5 billion more barrels.


3)
When you start to consider things like over next 30 years vehicles moving to electric, hydrogen, and hybrid vehicles projecting exactly how long an individual well will last is kinda just a guess.

4)
Well output is not static. It begins to decline. So say on day 1 the well produces 7 billion barrels per year (which would last 25 years). After a decade (due to pressure loss) output declines to 5 billion barrels which extends the life of well. Another decade and output might be down to 3 billion barrels. So well output will continue to decline and this increases length that well will last.

The real estimates take years to calculate and depend on hundreds of factors.

[Subdivisions]

4. All good points. But, as Hello_Kitty says here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8059446&mesg_id=8059472

"The oil isn't necessarily going to stay here. It's going to be sold on the market to whomever the highest bidder is. If that's China, then that's where the oil goes."

I'll just give the answer here: That amount of oil will contribute just 5 years worth of supply on the world oil markets. Of course, production would be stretched out over many more years than that but if you condense it to day-by-day consumption, it will last only 5 years.

[Statistical]

7. Of course all oil is sold on the open market.

However what matters is aggregate supply.

Demand is rising thus prices are rising. Speculators are contributing but China massive increase in consumption is having real effect on fundamentals.

Now here is the sad truth.

Even if we drill oil prices are likely going to increase.
However oil prices will go up EVEN MORE if we don't drill.

We absolutely need to reduce our consumption. Oil will be $150+ in a couple years. It will be $200+ by end of decade. It will simply keep rising and rising and rising.

China is nowhere close to end of its growth curve. Someday China could sell double the numbers of cars the US sold each year in the peak and even then not everyone would have a car in their lifetime.

[Newest Reality]

3. Just divide the current, daily usage into that number.

Demand is roughly 80-million+ barrels per day.

That's about 2,125 days, I think. That's around six years or so, but remember that the demand and output fluctuates.

(Sorry, forgot a number ... edited)

[Subdivisions]

6. Clost enough. At current levels of consumption (demand will increase), it will

take about 5.5 years to use up the amount of oil equivalent to Ghawar, the largest oil deposit ever discovered. Of course, that production will be stretched out depending on the rate it is extracted, but when all is said and done, it equals some 2000 days of consumption.

[PufPuf23]

5. Before or after we take out Chavez? (Sarcasm)

The US Geological Survey has doubled its estimates of Venezuelan oil reserves recently (and Venezuela now has about 2X the estimated reserves of Saudi Arabia.

The USA has imported more oil from Venezuela than from any other country including Saudi Arabia in our history by far.

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8. Heavy sour crude. Not light sweet CHEAP oil. And, there is some debate about the 2x estimates. n/t

[PufPuf23]

9. Note my sarcasm. The Orinoco oil is heavy sour and

the bulk of the increase but there is still 4X the proven oil reserves of the USA in Maracaibo Basin alone of better quality crude.

There is much debate as well about the possibly exaggerated extent of remaining Saudi reserves. The USGS Venezuela report is relatively recent.

We are getting lots of coal from northern Colombia as well - google Drummond - replaced lots of union jobs in the USA and allegedly lots of human rights abuses in Colombia.

[Subdivisions]

10. Indeed. Keeping our plastic and cars fueled is a mean, dirty, and murderous business. n/t

[PufPuf23]

12. Indeed I agree.

Just wanted to mention that the USGS had recently "discovered" an oil deposit off our shores recently of that size(that is conveniently surrounded by US military and we are upgrading military footprint in the region).

[Enthusiast]

11. Isn't it unlikely

to expect a find that large off our coast?

I bet there is untouched crude of that quantity in Greenland-even more. Not that it is recoverable under the present circumstances.

Imagine the mineral wealth under the ice on Antarctica.

[Subdivisions]

14. Oil discoveries peaked in 1964 and are today a fraction of the oil discovered that year. So,

yes, it is unlikely we'll find a RECOVERABLE oil deposit approaching anything near that size.

[Warren Stupidity]

13. not likely. a long time.

However the oil would not be anywhere near as cheap as saudi oil. It isn't just that oil is getting scarce, it is that the supply of cheap oil, oil as cheap to extract as the huge saudi fields, is nearing an end. Expensive oil is what is being found, and it is replacing cheap oil, and we are not replacing as much cheap oil with expensive oil as we are consuming.

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15. Bingo, Warren. And we already know what high prices do to the economy. And, unless

production is growing, and it's not, the economy is too starved for fuel to grow. We are currenly in a contraction of the economy, not a recession or depression.