Democrats will GAIN seats in the 2010 Election

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

How do I know this? Because all of the experts on the news chat programs are CERTAIN that the Democrats are going to lose seats. January of 2008, Hillary was the Democratic Nominee -- six months later? Not so much. They're wrong consistently and continually.

Take it to the bank.

[gmoney]

1. Along that line of thinking...

[cali]

2. No we won't. And that's a deeply flawed method ofcoming to a conclusion

But we won't lose nearly as many seats as the pundits think. the repubs have peaked too early and the angrier, uglier and more out of control elements associated with the repukes become, the better dem chances.

[bigtree]

4. these midterms draw out a lot of negative votes

. . . folks voting against something.

I think the republican violence could spark a defense from Democratic voters. It all depends on events and locales. It might provide a margin in a close race, but it's really hard to rouse a motivated defense from voters assuming they've already done their job electing the majority we have now. Hard slog.

[Tesha]

3. Sorry Jeff, but even the folks from OFA (Obama's political operation in the DNC)...

...think we're going to lose seats. We can perhaps
minimize those losses, but losses there will be.

And the magnitude of those losses will depend a lot
on whether or not various groups still think they've been
thrown under Barack's Big Bus come November 2nd.

Tesha

[Statistical]

5. Nope.

More realistic goal is damage control. Losing 2% of seats wouldn't materially change anything. Losing 10% would. Losing 20% would be a disaster.

If you go in thinking we will pull some super-super-supper-majority then anything that has a realistic chance of happening will be a disappointment.

[grahamhgreen]

6. The real question is: if we get slaughtered will the DLC'rs start listening to the left?

[dmallind]

7. Depends - will the left be generating any gained seats from "DLCers"?

I mean sure if you can replace Blanche Lincoln with A Kucinich type who can win in Arkansas I'll bet they will.

[grahamhgreen]

15. Yes. By promoting a more progressive agenda, like the public option, we can pick up seats.

It's not too late to give the American people what they will vote for - expanded Medicare or a public option.

We will never win the teabag vote.

[dmallind]

18. Go for it

I am not being sarcastic. But that has to come first. It has to be demonstrated that left leaning candidates can win, especially in swing states, before the left will have a significantly stronger voice though. The DLC types demonstrated that they can get elected, and get elected in staes like Arkansas and Tennessee. When the left wing of the party does the same you bet it will have a stronger voice.

[Subdivisions]

8. I voted no. However, I think the damage will be limited and we'll still have the majority. n/t

[Ozymanithrax]

9. No, not they won't.

[TacticalPeek]

10. Ain't no way.

There is nothing that I can imagine congressional Ds doing between now and November that reverses the tide that most professionals see coming - eg., Nate Silver, Charlie Cook etc.

As other posters noted above, the reasonable question is, How bad?.

My burnt offerings are going up to the God of Republican Fuckups.

<. . . relights . . .>

[Dinger]

11. I Don't Like My Glasses In Rose Color (nt)

[Kablooie]

12. Depends on how many Teebaggies run as a third party.

They could pull a lot of votes away from the GOP

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

16. William Krystol says we're going to lose seats....

And he's NEVER RIGHT!

[LiberalFighter]

13. We need to make sure that real Democrats win

If only blue dogs, dlcers or dinos lose that would be the the preferable losses.

And real Democrats beat incumbent Republicans.

[hfojvt]

14. by January of 2008 it was considered a dead heat

and the media was actively promoting Obama and attacking Hillary and Democrats win in the general election was assumed by then too. And it came to pass.

[depakid]

17. Yep, tuse pundits to form a rational and informed opinion!

Come on now.

[madokie]

19. If the electronic voting and counting machines don't bite us in the ass that is

in actual votes cast we'll gain many seats in both houses but with that little diddy about the electronic vote counting and casting machines the bet is off

[elocs]

20. It is typical and very usual for the party in power to lose seats in an off year election.

This one will probably be no different.

Your poll should have presented other choices such as nothing changes, we lose a few seats, or we gain a few.

No, "they" are not wrong consistently enough to "take it to the bank". You present 1 example to support your theory, I'm sure there are many others that are contrary.