Interesting exchange on CNN...

[PCIntern]

Don Lemon was talking to a seismologist retired from the USGS and Don asked him point-blank if there was something going on what with all these severe earthquakes recently.

Now I'm not saying the seismologist is necessarily wrong, but the answer (paraphrased went like this): there are 10 million quakes a year, just a few (I think he said 100+ but I could be mistaken) of this magnitude, but it's normal to have big earthquakes. Old Don did not look too convinced.

The seismologist gave a Republican's answer - as I said, he may entirely correct, but when you have multiple major earthquakes occurring in your hemisphere one after another, and then be told, hey, no sweat there are like 10 million of these so what are YOU worried about...well, it just sounds like the old reasoning that, for example, those infections in gay males were just, well, you know, 'one of those things' and don't worry about it...or when all those S&L's were collapsing and we were told, 'these things happen in capitalism'...you get the drift.?
Anyway...what do I know? I only work here.

On edit: I'm not at all a big fan of Don's...less of one with Tony "dumbest man on TV" Harris.

[Orrex]

1. Your assessment is reasonable, and it's long been a major problem for the "reality based" community

People are faced with an emotionally charged issue, and The Scientist chosen by the MSM will respond with a correct but clinical explanation that does nothing to calm the people's fears nor address their concerns. And then The Anti-Scientist chimes in with a quick, emotionally-appealing soundbyte, and that's the answer that leaves the impression.

Even the vaunted Paul Krugman used to be guilty of this, until he learned the game. He'd be on news programs and round-tables and give long, paragraph-based answers that were technically brilliant but someone opaque to the average listener. And then the Republican would answer "Clinton is fucking up the economy," and Krugman would be made to look like he didn't know what he was talking about.

It's a stupid lesson in perceptions, but it's an unfortunate fact of life.

[shraby]

2. The seismologist is pretty much correct. I've watched the

usgs site for a long time and there are quakes all the time.

[PCIntern]

5. Of course...

my point is that the anchor wants THIS IS IT WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!! testimony, and when he/she doesn't get it, resorts to headshaking and cutting the person off. The problem is that the Republicans have been ginving us so many "move along now nothing to see here" quotes, that that was my other point. i didn't really tie them together real well...sorry...I'm exhausted and not making much sense.

[Posteritatis]

3. There's nothing "Republican" about that at all

There are millions of quakes a year, a small percentage are major, by definition a decent chunk of them are going to happen in one hemisphere or another, and that has always been the case. Someone who isn't convinced of that is simply ignorant about the nature of geology.

Politicising something like this is ridiculous. There's absolutely no grounds for comparison with, well, anything else you mentioned there.

[RandomThoughts]

9. Flash Gordon against Ming the Merciless?

Flash Gordon The Movie Part 1.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P9-8hzqgas


It even has the umpa orange faced people.
Flash Gordons Football Scene
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNUcpXKiNZo


On a side note, I think they are just regular earth quakes, and mostly think of Flash as metaphor.

Not to make light of such things, I am glad there was not much damage in the most recent quake and wish all the people of California well, if there are any post quake issues. Also continued good wishes to the people that have had other problems with quakes recently.

[RandySF]

4. Apples and Oranges

I want to point out that the seismologist reminded Lemon about the "Big Shakeout" earthquake preparedness drill (which made Lemon's eyes glaze over). Every year, the news is filled with reports of very strong quakes around the world. The earth is very active and that is a fact of life. It's also something beyond our control, unlike the AIDS epidemic. Apples and oranges.

[PCIntern]

6. i know I know...

i wasn't politicizing that aspect at all...what I'm saying is that when someone says something in the fashion in which the seismologist said it, that it was dismissive of an event, then my point should have been that we went thru this for 8 years with Bush and now with the stupid minority in Congress where they just dismiss all of your legitimate concerns, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to say that the expert, in this case, is mistaken or misleading...even if he isn't.

[Duer 157099]

7. Are you suggesting that scientists should be looking for connections?

Shame on you! That something has happened before and will happen again is really all you need to know. Don't bother looking at statistics with a critical eye, just notice that you have a spreadsheet full of numbers and so that means something is happening all the time and so it's practically meaningless.

I see the error happening on both ends of the spectrum, and by so-called scientists. Some jump to quick conclusions that are completely unsupported by the data, and the other group don't know how to critically evaluate the data and so downplay any significance.

Both are equally frustrating to me.

[RandySF]

8. Don't forget that...

It just happened, he probably did not see hard data yet and he was talking for a set period of time on the phone.

[MineralMan]

10. The seismologist is right. And all you have to do is check

the back records of earthquake occurrences to see that he is correct. The fact that several large earthquakes have made the news has nothing to do with the physics of earthquakes, nor with the records of earthquakes in the past. A 7.2 quake is nothing extraordinary. There are about 25 of those a year in the Western Hemisphere along. Two a month, on average.

The mere fact that one happened in an area near someone is insignificant, statistically.

Here's my question: Would you rather listen to someone who makes his/her living studying earthquakes, or yourself? Unless you've been studying earthquakes for years, I'd guess you have very little knowledge of them.

Go to the USGS site. You can look up past earthquakes for any period you like on that site. In fact, just looking at the past week, you'll find many, many earthquakes. You can look at any week in their records, and you'll see the same thing. There's an earthquake over 6.0 going on almost any week you care to check.

It's the nature of the planet.

[Duer 157099]

12. "The mere fact that one happened in an area near someone is insignificant, statistically."

Statistically, yes. Anecdotally? If I live nearby the San Andreas Fault, knowing what I do about that fault and how overdue it is for a big hit, then the proximity of one of those "statistically insignificant" 7.2 quakes to the San Andreas Fault suddenly becomes of anecdotal interest to me.

[haele]

11. We don't tend to pay attention to the large earthquakes in the middle east

or western Asia.
Over the past 10 years that I have kept track of the online USGS there have been many, many major or bordering on major quakes (upper magnitude 5 to mid magnitude 7)in the Himalyans and around the Hindu Kush, in Turkey, in Iraq and Iran...in Manchuria or in the Indian Ocean. Unless a large city, or western tourist area gets damaged or unless you check the USGS site regularly, you would never hear about them. They just aren't covered in the news. Go figure.

Haele