Car bombs have killed thousands in Baghdad
Iraq is in the midst of a civil war, but could the violence draw in the rest of the Middle East? Here, in a personal opinion, historian Niall Ferguson weighs the evidence.
As a consequence of a botched Anglo-American occupation, Iraq is now in the midst of a civil war - already one of the biggest in the world since 1945 - with the kind of escalating cycle of tit-for-tat killing and ethnic cleansing that can last for years, even decades.
Debate currently centres on how quickly the United States and the UK can wind down their involvement in Iraq and on whether or not neighbouring countries can be persuaded to help stabilise it.
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The trouble, of course, is that Iraq matters more than Rwanda, economically and strategically. Does anyone seriously believe that a regional conflagration would leave Israel and Saudi Arabia - the US's most important allies in the Middle East - unscathed?
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The really sobering lesson of the 20th Century is that some civil wars can grow into more than just regional wars. If the stakes are high enough, they have the potential to become world wars too.
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