Was it “Nobody Saw It Coming” or “Everybody Who Saw It Coming Was a Nobody”?

[Fumesucker]

I know this is old but the title just slays me and the article makes an excellent point.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/11/guest-post-was-it-nobody-saw-it-coming-or-everybody-who-saw-it-coming-was-a-nobody.html

A number of economists, economic policymakers, regulators, and central bankers have attempted to explain away their failure to both foresee and mitigate the current financial crisis by asserting that no one saw it coming. The inference is that they cannot be held accountable for something so unusual, so extraordinary, and so unforecastable that that no one saw it coming. Robert Shiller, in a November 1, 2008 NYT OP-ED, noted the following example:

Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, acknowledged in a Congressional hearing last month that he had made an “error” in assuming that the markets would properly regulate themselves, and added that he had no idea a financial disaster was in the making. What’s more, he said the Fed’s own computer models and economic experts simply “did not forecast” the current financial crisis.

However, the Fed and other policymaking agencies cannot honestly claim that no one saw it coming. There is ample evidence that:

• Economist and commentators “saw it coming”; and

• Economists and others repeatedly brought their observations to the attention of the authorities including the Fed, but were ignored.

In fact, the Fed increasingly exhibited a willingness ignoring critics and criticism. The existence of this pattern at the Fed can be illustrated by looking at two presentations by Kohn. The first is from 2003 and the second is from 2005. But first, a return to Shiller’s OP-ED piece:

Mr. Greenspan’s comments may have left the impression that no one in the world could have predicted the crisis. Yet it is clear that well before home prices started falling in 2006, lots of people were worried about the housing boom and its potential for creating economic disaster. It’s just that the Fed did not take them very seriously.

[Atman]

1. Fuck those guys. I know of dozens of mere DUers who "saw it coming," and posted about it.

Me among. Check my journals. I wrote about this many times, well before it all broke down. And I'm just a moron. Why didn't the guys making 90 mil a year figure it out?

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

2. uh, because they have 90mil reasons

not to see it?

just like no one knew there were no nukes in Iraq.... or just the no ones knew it, I guess.

[Greyhound]

3. To borrow from Senator Franken, lies and the lying liars who tell them. n/t

[ThoughtCriminal]

4. We get tired of playing Cassandra

WMDs not there - easy call. Even though the Bush Administration claimed they there and even knew where they were, they could not lead U.N. inspectors to them. Afterwards, they claim "Everyone" thought they were there.

Huge Tax Cuts for the rich lead to huge deficits - Duh!

The Iraq war will not only not pay for itself, but will be a fiscal disaster. Double Duh!

[midnight]

5. Mr. Greenspan was schooled as to why his wishful thinking was wrong.

But because, “Everybody Who Saw It Coming Was a Nobody”, they were silenced....

[followthemoney]

6. The banksters were in the middle of a rape of the people...

and no one wanted to be the party pooper to say that's not right while there was still more fun to be had by them.

The people are so quiet about the transgression that one might think they liked it. Any body out there a rape victim who thinks this might be the case?

[rpannier]

7. Yes

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. We saw it comming

how many of us said we're beading off the damn cliff?

Rice after 9.11 nobody saw a plane hitting the towers...

Again, many a fiction writer had planes hitting buildings as a plot device for a LONG TIME... yes even me, in an unpublished work (I chose not to go there after other sections of the plot became kind of very real) back in 1996 or so.

So yes, we did... we have. Perhaps DC insiders need a dose of imagination or perhaps even better a LITTLE humility.

Of course when your job is to push the Third Way all this bad stuff, well you cannot be blamed for it.

[Initech]

9. I knew it was coming and I know jack shit about economics.

[babyblonde]

10. OF COURSE

they saw it coming,and ALL MADE A SHITPILE of money shorting the coming fiasco capitalism!:evilfrown: