On the Ash cloud

[nadinbrzezinski]

well mom (Gaia) is about to teach us unruly kids just how it can affect the world. No, she is not doing it out of malice... I mean nature does not chose favorites or anything like that.

But we are about to learn this lesson... and this time we can track it as it happens.

First here is a link from Wiki to Krakatoa

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa

Realize that we had ahem issues for three years with colder climes and oh... food growing issues.

This little ash cloud is happening at the EARLY part of the growing season. So European food production might go down... and as it continues to spew... it WILL REACH the United States by next week. This is ALSO the early growing season in the United States... and IF the ash cloud is thick enough... well guess what? We may see crop failures too.

Ah remember those theories on Nuclear Winter? Well, guess what? We are going to get a real time model, not as bad as a nuclear winter, but hey... there you go.

So if you think this will not affect you... well class sit down and pay attention... class is in session... and the more material that goes out, the better that model of how connected we are will be.

[flamingdem]

1. scary

:wow: :wow: :wow: :wow:

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Odin2005]

3. K&R

[NeedleCast]

4. Nadinbrzezinski end of the world thread #521...

[havocmom]

8. Pointing out the likely effects is not end of the world alarmism

We all had a pretty cool and gloomy summer in 1980 as a result of Mt St. Helens. Ash has effect.

edited for typo

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. And the world did not come to an end after Krakatoa either

just had much colder two to three years after that.

And this poster (ignored) could also look up the Mini Ice Age, a few years during the Middle Ages, suspected to have been caused by a volcano on the other side of the world, that were unusually cold.

The world is not coming to an end, nor are we going extinct. It will just be colder, and we may see food shortages... but hardly take down humanity. Now 300 of these could do it... just like oh at least 50 nukes going off at the same time.

[eleny]

17. I remember being uncomfortable in Colorado even after Mt. St Helens blew

Cars all ashy.

Maybe the snarkster here was born after 1980. :shrug:
That would at least let them off the ignorance hook.

[havocmom]

32. Great information at this link:

http://www.businessinsider.com/eyjafjallajokull-crops-oil-flights-2010-4#ixzz0lSrTz2Gn

There is a lot of very helpful graphics in the article


Many thanks to DUer Joanne98 who provided the link in a thread in Editorials forum
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x530553

[nadinbrzezinski]

50. Thanks some people just don't get it

[havocmom]

55. While ignorance is annoying, sometimes we much remember:

some people just can't handle the truth. ;)

[nadinbrzezinski]

65. I am starging to think, MOST cannot handle the truth

:-)

There I go for writing sci fi and designing worlds...

I get these concepts...

And to me this is entertaining.

[Whisp]

74. I get it and thanks for your post.

everything is woo woo to some ____________ here.

[Flying Dream Blues]

71. I disagree and find her contributions very worthy. Not sure what you

have contributed, but this post isn't much of a contribution. Not sure why you felt the need to post it, really.

[cali]

75. lol. succinctly put

some people get positively orgasmic at any disaster or potential disaster.

sick way to get off if you ask me.

[havocmom]

5. May 18, 1980 Mt St. Helens blew

My nephew's 18th birthday. And he spent 6 weeks in England that summer. Said he nearly froze and never saw the sun the entire time he was there.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. And from what I can see from the NYT track

this is putting more crap up.

Why Krakatoa has come to mind.

[havocmom]

10. Gonna be interesting times for a spell.

I do have to say, am not really broken up about diminished air traffic.

[nadinbrzezinski]

14. It will have some interesting effects

to the economy.

And it may prove why we are over dependent on certain forms of technology. These are the kinds of events that can have long term social changes... it might force us to slow down.

[havocmom]

26. yeah, seeing how nature can make some tech useless is an important lesson

Some are so invested in the tech they cannot fathom forces that can knock it down for a time. We have become a people unsuited for taking care of ourselves for all our dependence on modern conveniences. If some disruption helps wake some up to the need to learn how to be a bit more self reliant, it is a good thing.

And we DO need to learn to slow down. Dr. Franklin figured people should have to work about 5 hours a day. As he was a pretty productive chap, one might consider time to relax, think, create might just be time well spent.We are so busy that we don't ever get anything finished. And most of us don't seem to be enjoying all the toys and diversions we can buy if we work enough hours ;)

[Delphinus]

72. Really??!!

Five hours to work and then the rest to relax, think, create, play? Wow! I could get into that!

[Warpy]

27. Think about what moves by air freight

Perishable foods are often flown rather than delivered by surface means, especially across the Alps. That means no fresh fruit and veggies and no Mediterranean fish for anybody north. In addition, a lot of other goods are routinely air freighted and there isn't enough surface infrastructure to take up the slack. Passenger trains are going to be jammed with people, no extra room for boxes and bags of goods.

It's going to be really tough in northern Europe until the infrastructure expands enough to do surface freight of perishable goods. Their growing season is likely to be a poor one this year.

If that thing blows for 2 years like it did the last time, we're going to see tougher times here, too.

While you might like to think of fewer yuppies and business drones polluting the pristine skies, try to think about it in terms of freight some time.

[havocmom]

28. I understand that

and that is one of the reasons we need to be reminded that our tech is sometimes a huge liability for us. We rely on it to eat because we consume so much that is grown so far away. We need to re-think that. We are not secure when our foods have to travel so far. It is EXACTLY why I think it is good to have reminders that our tech is not always going to work for us. I think not one whit about traveling yuppies.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. Oh I expect this to last from how it is looking RIGHT NOW

and yes, all you said.

Now Europe has ONE advantage over us... they can actually expand that infrastructure much easier, as they HAVE IT. We, on the other hand, don't... for the most part.

I used the wrong fruit yesterday, to make that point, bannanas... but the other thing that will expand is sea shipping using container ships. There are a bunch right now parked in the Pacific... them ships will find ports to call soon

[tabatha]

7. I have learned that there are a lot of weeds and other plants out there

that have really good nutrition. They don't require fertilizer or any other farm know-how.

http://feralkevin.com/?p=318

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Yeah but this will not help most people

[lib2DaBone]

11. K/R Mother Earth may show us who is in charge.. we may not have time to wage war..

..For those not aware nor caring to pay attention... the "circle of Fire" is heating up.

I know, you can provide stats all day long showing that 8 quakes a year is "normal".. but...

Who would have thought 2 weeks ago, that a volcano would cause a stop in air travel?

Who would have thought that a volcano might effect food production.. or shipments of food?

Maybe we should bring out troops home from Afghanistan and start concentrating on repairing our electric grid? Maybe we should start to worry about fresh drinking water and keeping the interstates open...

Maybe we shoud... maybe.... oh never mind... we won't do a thing until people are standing on the roofs of their homes waving white sheets...

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. Actually something like this, worst case, and I hardly think

it will get to a worst case... would do that.

[Subdivisions]

13. When you are able to realize just exactly where it is that you are,

it becomes clear that events that are catastrophic to humanity will happen. We live on a rock with a fragile atmosphere orbiting a star that is only 93 million miles way. We are surrounded by magnetic, gravitational and internal thermodynamic forces. We are bombarded by cosmic rays and solar radiation by the minute. We must dodge coronal mass events from the Sun and streaking masses of rock and iron asteroids. We must deal with all manner of disaster right here on this planet from landslides to earthquakes to cyclones to tsunamis and more. Our entire solar system orbits the greater Milky Way galaxy, which can throw all kinds of nasty stuff at us, not the least of which is black holes, gamma ray bursts, and supernovea. That galaxy is in turn moving through the universe along with a group of other galaxies like Andromeda and the Large Megallanic Cloud, speeding away a single point from which all the matter in the universe sprung on our way to God knows where. Oh, and then there's that God thing, along with His temperament.

The plain fact is, not only could humanity and life on Earth disappear with a quickness, but our entire planet could be destroyed if the universe chooses the right weapon.

Oh, and I agree with your post :).

[Bobbieo]

16. Bottom Line - Global warming melted the Icelandic glaciar that exposed the volcano

and stirred it into action. The rest of the world may end up freezing its ass off for a while but that is how this all began.

[Riftaxe]

19. I dearly hope you forgot the sarcasm tag on that.

[Bobbieo]

20. What sarcasm tag? This follows geologic history. BTW if the glaciar is melted off the top of that

other volcano in Iceland - we are really going to freeze our asses off.


This ithe best I can do !!!!!

Risk of Katla: Could 2nd Icelandic Volcano Eruption Follow?


The eruptions of the comparatively small Eyjafjallajökull glacier volcano in Iceland have historically preceded massive eruptions by the more feared Mount Katla. Experts are concerned that the present volcanic eruption could trigger activity at Mount Katla, which is potentially much more dangerous. Its last major eruption was in 1918. Icelandic volcanologists consider it plausible that Katla may erupt, and that is why they are monitoring Katla very closely right now. There are eruption channels between Eyjafjallajökull and Katla and magma could shoot into the Katla volcano. Katla might only need a nudge. Effects of Katla's eruption would put the present air travel chaos in the shade, inflicting much greater economic losses upon Europe. Deposits from the ash cloud formed by Katla when it erupted spectacularly in 1755 can still be found in peat bogs in Shetland and other parts of northern Europe.

[Subdivisions]

21. Why? The Icelandic Glacier has been melting for 20 years. To say

it may have uncorked the volcano isn't scientific by any means, but such a scenario is feasible.

"Most of the Icelandic glaciers retreated rapidly during the warm decades from 1930 to 1960, slowing down as the climate cooled during the following decade, and started to advance after 1970. The rate of advance peaked in the 1980s, after which it slowed down as a consequence of rapid warming of the climate that has taken place since the mid-1980s. Most glaciers in Iceland began to retreat after 1990, and by 2000 all monitored non-surge type glaciers in Iceland were retreating. An average of 45 non-surging termini were monitored each year by the Icelandic Glaciological Society from 2000-2005."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850

Iceland straddles the mid-atlantic rift zone and volcanic activity happens all up and down that rift from one end of the rift to the other. At Iceland, the rift rises up out of the ocean to reside on land. It's more likely that this eruption is simply a normal product of that geologic activity. We just need to remember that these things can and do happen on a geologic timescale and this just happened to be the time. And neither time nor geology care the least bit about life.

[TransitJohn]

24. So to what degree has the lithosphere around the volcano undergone isostatic rebound

and more importantly, how does this unmeasured conjectured rebound move magma up the volcanic neck?

[Subdivisions]

30. That's a lot of fancy words in such a short space.

You seem to be implying that I support isostatic rebound as being the primary factor in facilitating this eruption.

You could've just asked: "But how does melting ice cause magma to reach the surface?" Or you could have posted a decisive narrative of how this eruption came to be, since you seem to be an expert of sorts.

I don't know why you're asking me anyways. I did say that I, as a lay person, would disagree that lithostatic somethingorother created the circumstances allowing an eruption. I also stated that there are eruptions all along the rift.

Admittedly, I'm not a volcanologist and am just going by what I've managed to learn over the years. Having said that, I would venture that any rebound seen as a result of glacial melt would, indeed, contribute little to magma rising up that volcanic neck. Additionally, I would offer that the magma reached the surface the same way it does anywhere else along the rift, which is to say the that it found and opening along the divergent margin and burst forth. How much of an effect isostatic rebound had on contributing to the emergence of the magma...well...I have no idea.

[TransitJohn]

31. I'm just saying

as a geologist, your grasp of this eruption is tenuous.

[Subdivisions]

33. Then why don't you take a few moments and school me rather

than post condescending comments? You're a geologist and I could build you a suit of armor from flat sheet metal. Big fucking deal.

So go ahead bigshot rock hound, tell me all about it. After all, I'm always willing to learn.

[TransitJohn]

76. Okay.

A tiny glacier on the surface of the Earth's crust has no bearing on magma at depth. It's insignificant. Doesn't this seem like common sense? If we were talking continental ice sheets, then maybe, but probably not.

[keopeli]

23. Do you have a link to where you read that this is the case? n/t

[Dreamer Tatum]

45. From the well-respected Journal of Because I Said So, of course

:eyes:

[Codeine]

47. Much more trustworthy than

the I Just Made That Shit Up, Y'all Annual.

[Dreamer Tatum]

48. Both are pee reviewed, though nt

[eleny]

18. kr

[aquart]

22. Oh, bloody hell.

Not sure if the growing season can be affected by mere ash. I think it has to affect the weather and the sunlight. But grazing will be affected. Not good for cattle and sheep and reindeer and goats to eat what is essentially ground glass.

[nadinbrzezinski]

25. Yes it does, it is called albedo

This happened with Krakatoa... and we think it happened during the mini ice age.

The albedo aspect

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

34. Good thing we'll all be dead of swine flu before that happens.

:eyes:

[deaniac21]

35. Yeah, I'm building a bunker and stocking up on canned food.

It's the end of the world but at least the climate will cool.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. Where exactly did I say that?

Or you cannot understand science?

[deaniac21]

82. Just having a bit of fun with your alarmism.

[lynne]

36. Check out "Year Without A Summer" aka 1816 due to eruption of Mt. Tambora -

- and we're all still here. Yeah, might be some reduction in crop productivity, increase in some food prices, etc. However, we're more than a few steps ahead of where we were in 1816 so I don't think we need to be screaming that the sky is falling just yet.

[nadinbrzezinski]

39. And who is screaming?

If you think this is the 2012 shit, you are wrong. Just pointing out the effects. I am expecting a colder summer, even perhaps upwards of three years of colder weather worst case. Oh and yes 1816 had a wide spread crop failures, or you missed that?

Where is in there the expectation of the end of the world? Now fifty nukes, or 300 ash volcanoes doing this all at the same time, you'd have a case. But to weather scientists that use models... this is a pretty good proof of concept, wouldn't you say?

Oh and a few other eruptions have had longer lasting effects... by the by.

[Call Me Wesley]

37. I'm in Europe under the ash cloud.

And it's almost totally dark.

Of course, it's 8:30 p. m. here.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. If it wasn't dark at night that would be another stoory

but it is changing the albedo of the planet by a very small degree. Such a degree that it will have effects on life on Earth. They always do... just that we are getting to see it for once, and not read about it... (Krakatoa is but the most recent example that lasted years. Mt. St. Helens lasted a lot less but had an effect)

[Call Me Wesley]

46. Every cloud changes the albedo by a small degree.

You're blowing things way out of proportions here. The ash cloud hasn't reached the stratosphere where an effect on global climate could be possible. It's in the troposphere, so the next days we have rain, the thing will be washed out.

Last volcanic activity that had a climate impact was Mount Pinatubo, 1991, which ash cloud reached into the straosphere. Not Krakatoa, although the movie was cool, but it's not the most recent.

[nadinbrzezinski]

52. No I am not, you will see

http://www.businessinsider.com/eyjafjallajokull-crops-oil-flights-2010-4#ixzz0lSrTz2Gn

The effect on agriculture is something people are actually already talking about. And it has happened in the historic past.

The effect lasts for a few years worst case but you will see.

[Call Me Wesley]

62. Did you read the article you linked to?

Most of it it's about halted air travel - which already has become under heavy criticism.

Then it's about the impact on crops 'the agriculture of Europe would be damaged by a prolonged eruption with this distribution,' and the rest is all about the adjacent, bigger volcano 'Katla.'

People are talking about many things. And many things have happened in the historic past, that I give you.

You're posting opinion pieces. In this case, I can honestly say that all the grounded airplanes are a good thing since it reduced global pollution and so prevented this chapter of climate change.

But yes, I will see. And most likely remember that you were right.

[nadinbrzezinski]

67. Yes I did

and right now they are not sure it is not going to be extended.

At least according to the people on the ground with a few letters after their names.

As to you seeing blue sky from the ground, you know why right? The cloud is TOO HIGH to be seen from the ground.

[Call Me Wesley]

70. The cloud is 6 to 8 km high.

I can see airplanes at 11 km high. Are you kidding me? I didn't say anywhere I couldn't see it. In fact, I DID SEE IT TODAY! IN ALL ASH CAPS!

There's a good thing about the scientists when they say 'We're not sure ...' I always use this method too instead of other things.

Here's the ash cloud seen in Nuremberg:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4xF0RcgqUM

[TexasObserver]

61. Your actual knowledge about such events is very helpful.

Facts really help.

[TexasObserver]

58. Thanks for an eye witness report from Europe.

That's so much more important than posts repeating news reports. We can read those online everywhere.

[Call Me Wesley]

66. It's now totally dark!

At 10:22 p. m.

It's scary! What about my crop?!

[TexasObserver]

68. Just think, if this was 500 years ago, someone would be sacrificed by now.

It's good that hysterics and ignorance don't prevail any more.

[Rex]

41. Why is it when a natural event happens like this volcano, someone

always act as if Old Mother Nature is in teaching mode...we're going to learn a lesson? In what? Chaos theory? We will be fine, for now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

42. Ah you may not, but weather scientists are happy as clams

they are getting a real world example of many of the models.

[Rex]

43. Are they happy or excited?

New data since when? 1820s? I wonder if the sister volcano will erupt now.

[nadinbrzezinski]

44. This much ash Krakatoa

So yes they are happy... they are getting very usable data I am betting.

And it is awe inspiring, at least to me.

[Rex]

54. The pictures from reuters are amazing.

My new background. Earth is an amazing creature.

[nadinbrzezinski]

57. Yep, it is...

and given how interconnected we are, and just in time delivery, this will have some interesting lessons...

[zorahopkins]

49. O.M.G.!!

I had not idea things were this serious, and that Mom was this eager to teach all of us unruly children a much-needed lesson.

The END of the World is NEAR!

We are doomed!

DOOMED!

I just hope the end -- when it comes -- comes quickly...I don't want to suffer.

[nadinbrzezinski]

51. What the hell are you talking about?You think that this will have ZERO effect

on the world ecology?

http://www.businessinsider.com/eyjafjallajokull-crops-oil-flights-2010-4#ixzz0lSrTz2Gn

Damn some people are willfully ignorant.

Oh and the word of the day is ALBEDO, can you spell ALBEDO?

[Dreamer Tatum]

53. I think the point is that you seem to think it will have TOTAL effect

which, as we sit here today, is silly.

You were very hot on the unreported effects of the earthquake a couple of weeks ago. What happened there? Are you done with that? It seems like you're desperate to live in interesting times.

[nadinbrzezinski]

56. No, I guess readying is not the strong suit

I said SOME EFFECT. As to European agriculture, I will not be too shocked if the Caucasus have a bad season though... and we have a MUCH COLDER summer. (Remember even a little will affect your yield)

What you think this will not circulate in the upper atmosphere of the northern Hemisphere until it falls down?

[Dreamer Tatum]

59. I think that might happen, but I am utterly certain that life will go on

and I am therefore unsure of your point. A volcano blew. It's going to have an impact. Got it. What else ya got?

[nadinbrzezinski]

63. And who said a thing about life not going on

It would take a few more Ash volcanoes to do that... like oh 300 of them going off at the same time, or an asteroid hitting the earth, or perhaps 50 nukes.

We have had that much volcanic activity on Earth's GEOLOGIC PAST... but we have no sign that this might do it. Hell, if the supervolcano under Yellowstone decides to do that... it might be an extinction level event for HUMANITY, but hardly life. Now that is purely theoretical, by the way. Oh and it would make this little Icelanding volcano look like a walk in the park.

We also know that at LEAST ONE asteroid (they think perhaps another one at the end of the Cambrian) has done a number on life, but not sent it to extinction... so...

We are talking of an event that will have AN EFFECT... and one that MIGHT FORCE interesting social changes and economic changes as well. That is all.

Think of it this way... JUST IN TIME... needs planes. So yes they are starting to fly now... service life of turbines is expects to go down by orders of magnitude now.

Oh and did life end after Krakatoa? No... WHY I GAVE THAT DAMN EXAMPLE... it did not go away after tambora either, but the Summer of 1816 was mighty cold...

[Dreamer Tatum]

73. OK, so your point is as follows:

1. A volcano erupted.
2. It will have an effect on a couple of things.

OK, noted.

[zorahopkins]

60. Oh, No! NOT Albedo.

O.M.G. O.-M.-G. !!

Say it isn't true. Please say it is NOT true!

I could live with many things, but I cannot - CANNOT -- live with albedo (or even ALBEDO).

Albedo just makes me SO angry.

A day with albedo just ruins -- RUINS! -- my entire week.

Knowing that we are all DOOMED! is bad enough, but albedo is just too much.

TOO MUCH!

Down With ALBEDO!

(We are still all DOOMED, though!)

[TexasObserver]

64. Are you suggesting this ISN'T a harbinger of the end of the world?!

And if so, what's a harbinger?

[zorahopkins]

69. Not A Harbinger

Definitely, totally NOT a harbinger.

It is, however (IMHO) a Barhinger.

Sometimes people who go into bars have too much to drink.

When people in bars have too much to drink, they (the people) can become a bit "unhinged".

So, some bars have people on their staffs who help "unhinged" people become "hinged".

Those folks are call "Barhingers".

They are sometimes confused with Harbingers (they are people who binge at hars, and so a totally not the same as Barhingers!)

It's sad that most bars have had to let the Barhingers go (recession).

But there are still far too many people who binge at hars (and you KNOW who you are!)

I hope this clarifies my position on this complex matter.

(We are still all DOOMED!)

And do NOT get me stared on albedo (I'm still plenty upset by albedo!)

[northernlights]

77. this ash cloud is not nearly thick enough to cause the problems you are suggesting

The only reason it has remained a problem is because the current weather pattern is keeping in intact. A couple good rains will bring most of it down.

If and when her sister volcano Katla, which is 5 times her size, blows...then we will see more serious effects. Until then, chill. We are a long way from crop failuers. :eyes:

[nadinbrzezinski]

78. It is higher than rain

and actually in OTHER places of the world they're talking of this... as a possible problem

They expect an average drop of one degree centigrade already. (On the bright side it is slowing down global warming). But I do not expect the US Media to explain any of this. They did a terrible job with H1N1... they did a terrible job with AIDS... and weather change... well let's not even go there.

[northernlights]

81. it won't stay higher than rain forever

and an average drop of 1 degree centigrade is not necessarily a bad thing right now. Perhaps you could provide a link supporting that claim.

And, for the record, I don't rely on US media for my news. I generally trend to UK. And I have no idea what you are talking about with "weather change." Perhaps you meant climate change? :shrug:

[Zhade]

79. Nature is not anthropomorphic. Please don't undercut scientific understanding with nonsense.

NT!

[nadinbrzezinski]

80. Why do you think I added this line?

I mean nature does not chose favorites or anything like that.

Sorry I did not do any of the sarcasm taggies for the sarcasm impaired.