Climate change denial has been a major force in national and global politics over the past several decades. Fueled and funded by interests whose wealth and power stand to be curtailed by world-wide efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, climate change denial has become so pervasive that it has affected the beliefs of many otherwise progressive people. This is evidenced even on DU, as when a DUer buttressed his/her arguments against the scientific consensus on global warming by quoting the right wing rag,
Human Events, which features the
psychopathic liar Ann Coulter as its most visible representative.
I’ve discussed the significance of global warming in several previous posts.
In one I talked about
melting glaciers, the 17 cm
rise in sea level during the 20th century, the expectation of
much greater rises in sea level during the 21st century, the first disappearance beneath the sea in modern times of
an uninhabited island (Kiribati) in 1998, the first disappearance beneath the sea in modern times of
an inhabited island (Lohachara) in 2006, and the
submerging of several more islands since that time. In
another post I talked about the likelihood of widespread drought – and war – if the global warming trend isn’t substantially curtailed. And in a more
recent post I talked about the
failure of the recent Copenhagen summit to make more than a small dent in the problem.
A 2007 article appearing in Newsweek, titled “
The Truth about Denial” discussed how climate change denial has greatly hampered efforts to address the problem:
Since the late 1980s, this well-coordinated, well-funded campaign by contrarian scientists, free-market think tanks and industry has created a paralyzing fog of doubt around climate change. Through advertisements, op-eds, lobbying and media attention, greenhouse doubters (they hate being called deniers) argued first that the world is not warming; measurements indicating otherwise are flawed, they said. Then they claimed that any warming is natural, not caused by human activities. Now they contend that the looming warming will be minuscule and harmless
But I am not a climate scientist (I am an epidemiologist, which is a scientist who deals with the causes of human health and disease), so don’t trust too much what I have to say about this. Instead, consider the credentials of the deniers vs. the scientists who have studied the issue in great depth. And especially consider the financial incentives of the deniers.
CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERSGeorge Monbiot, in an article titled “
The Denial Industry”, gets to the heart of the problem in the first paragraph:
For years, a network of fake citizens' groups and bogus scientific bodies has been claiming that the science of global warming is inconclusive. They set back action on climate change by a decade. But who funded them?
Who funded them, indeed! Everyone should ask that question prior to being taken in by climate change deniers. Monbiot continued:
By funding a large number of organizations, Exxon helps to create the impression that doubt about climate change is widespread. For those who do not understand that scientific findings cannot be trusted if they have not appeared in peer-reviewed journals, the names of these institutes help to suggest that serious researchers are challenging the consensus.
And of course our corporate media picks this stuff up just like they picked up the Bush administration’s rationalizations for war in Iraq. Thus
Mark Hertsgaard noted that “Mainstream media have given fresh prominence to deniers' claims of fraud and rampant error on the part of climate scientists.”
ExxonMobilAn article about a report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, titled “
Scientists’ Report Documents ExxonMobil’s Tobacco-like Disinformation Campaign on Global Warming Science”, summarized the role that ExxonMobil has played in damping government action to address the problem:
ExxonMobil has funneled nearly $16 million between 1998 and 2005 to a network of 43 advocacy organizations that seek to confuse the public on global warming science. "ExxonMobil has manufactured uncertainty about the human causes of global warming just as tobacco companies denied their product caused lung cancer," said Alden Meyer, the Union of Concerned Scientists' Director of Strategy & Policy. "A modest but effective investment has allowed the oil giant to fuel doubt about global warming to delay government action just as Big Tobacco did for over 40 years."
Jack Huberman deals with this issue in more detail in his book, “
101 People Who Are Really Screwing America”. In one of his chapters Huberman identifies Lee Raymond, ExxonMobil and the American Petroleum Institute as
ranking number 12 on the list of people who are screwing America. He identifies the scope of the problem:
The think tanks (Chris) Mooney identified received more than $8 million between 2000 and 2003… Exxon has filled the tanks of the Heritage Foundation, the American Enterprise Institute… the Competitive Enterprise Institute, which twice sued to block a federal report showing the impact of climate change; and the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, where a senior fellow… made it his mission to portray Kyoto-style emissions regulations as an attack on people of color… Exxon’s efforts on global warming have even included funding for religious and civil-rights groups…
Indeed, as the scientific consensus on global warming solidified, other oil companies backed off…. abandoned the Global Climate Coalition (GCC), an industry group that formed in the late 1980s to deny global warming. After a report in 2001 by the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) concluded that greenhouse gases could raise global temperatures by more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, which would have catastrophic effects, the GCC closed up shop. “Consensus as strong as the one that has developed around this topic is rare in science”, the editor-in-chief of
Science magazine
wrote at the time. Nonetheless, a whole cottage industry has sprung up to criticize the IPPC analysis, much of it linked to Exxon funded think tanks. Exxon and the main oil industry trade group, the American Petroleum Institute (API) carry on the fight.
Huberman discussed the strategy of the climate change deniers:
In 1998, the
New York Times exposed an API memo outlining a strategy to invest millions to “maximize the impact of scientific views consistent with ours with Congress, the media and other key audiences. Victory will be achieved when… recognition of uncertainty becomes part of the conventional wisdom” …
Huberman notes that the API successfully lobbied the Bush administration to
dismiss the IPCC chairman, Robert Watson, and that more than thirty former energy industry executives, lobbyists and lawyers received high level jobs in the Bush administration.
Christopher MoncktonThere are plenty like him, but I’ll discuss Christopher Monckton here because he is perhaps the best known “expert” among the current crop of climate change deniers. He is widely
touted as an “expert” on the subject by the denial network, and he has specifically
targeted Al Gore in his efforts to denigrate the credibility of those who warn us of the dangers of global warming.
An article by Johann Hari in
The Nation notes that “He has been lauded by the
Wall Street Journal,
National Review and Rush Limbaugh for exposing the truth about global warming, and is used by the
New York Times as a balancing voice against the claims of climate scientists.” But what exactly are Monckton’s credentials? Hari explains:
In fact, Monckton is an English aristocrat with no scientific training. He… worked as a policy adviser for Margaret Thatcher… He falsely claimed he is a member of the House of Lords and a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. When challenged, Monckton has admitted to a weakness for telling "stories that aren't actually true." … Yet this man is treated as a great debunker of climate science in the United States.
So, if Monckton has no scientific expertise and is a habitual liar, then what credentials does he have exactly for being a prominent spokesperson for the climate change denial movement? Well, he certainly has the right
political credentials. For one thing,
he is a birther. And he is also a self-appointed expert on AIDS, a subject on which he voiced in the
American Spectator his far right-wing and
scientifically invalid views, which include screening the whole population for HIV infection, followed by compulsory quarantine, for life, of all carriers (which would have included about 1.5 to 3 million Americans at the time).
And it is no coincidence that Monckton, like almost all “expert” climate change deniers, is a big champion of what the deniers call “economic liberty”. Economic liberty in that context is a euphemism for the right of corporations to destroy the environment without having to put up with government regulation or suffer penalties. Johann Hari quotes Monckton from a
speech he gave in Minnesota:
"There is no problem with the climate," except that Greenpeace is "about to impose a communist world government on the world" and "you have a president who has very strong sympathies with that point of view." Warming is an excuse invented so that Obama can "sign your freedom, your democracy and your prosperity away forever," and give it all to "third world countries."
Scientists who allegedly disagree with the consensus on climate changeMuch has been made of
a research paper by Klaus-Martin Schulte, which evaluated 528 papers on climate change between 2004 and 2007. According to Schulte, 6% of the articles rejected the climate change consensus and 48% were neutral on the subject. With regard to the so-called neutral articles, they can be
easily explained on the basis that the consensus is so well established that it isn’t necessary to explicitly endorse it:
Nowadays, earth science papers are rarely found explicitly endorsing plate tectonics, as the theory is established and taken for granted. The fact that so many studies on climate change don't bother to endorse the consensus position is significant because scientists have largely moved from what's causing global warming onto discussing details of the problem (eg - how fast, how soon, impacts, etc).
With regard to the alleged 6% of articles that rejecteded the consensus, independent evaluation of the papers that were available at the time told a different story: some were found not to be scientific papers; some were found not to reject the consensus view; and some scientific papers that did reject the consensus views were found to have based the rejection on invalid reasoning. (It is unclear if any of the articles that Schulte cited were scientific articles that used valid arguments to reject the consensus view on climate change.)
It is also noteworthy that Schulte
refused to answer questions about his relationship to the oil industry.
And here is an entertaining article that provides information on the
“top 10” climate change deniers.
SUPPORTERS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUSSurvey of climate scientistsA
survey was conducted in 2009 of 79 climate scientists whose publications in peer reviewed journals in the past 5 years included more than 50% on the subject of climate change. The survey questions were:
1)
When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures
have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?2)
Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?96% of the survey participants answered “risen” to question # 1, and 97% answered “yes” to question # 2.
Scientific academies and organizationsThe Academies of Science from 19 different countries endorse the scientific consensus on climate change. Eleven (11) of these (Including Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil); Royal Society of Canada; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Academie des Sciences (France); Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany); Indian National Science Academy; Accademia dei Lincei (Italy); Science Council of Japan; Russian Academy of Sciences; Royal Society (United Kingdom); and, the National Academy of Sciences) signed a
joint statement to the effect that, among other things:
There is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring…
Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases –
including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide – to rise well above pre-industrial levels….
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that the average global surface temperatures will continue to increase to between 1.4 centigrade degrees and 5.8 centigrade degrees above 1990 levels, by 2100….
The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action. It is vital that all nations identify cost-effective steps that they can take now, to contribute to substantial and long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas emissions….
The following scientific organizations endorse the
consensus position that "most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities":
American Association for the Advancement of Science;
American Astronomical Society; American Chemical Society;
American Geophysical Union;
American Institute of Physics;
American Meteorological Society;
American Physical Society; Australian Coral Reef Society; Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society; Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO; British Antarctic Survey; Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences; Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society; Environmental Protection Agency; European Federation of Geologists; European Geosciences Union; European Physical Society; Federation of American Scientists; Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies; Geological Society of America; Geological Society of Australia; International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA); International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics; National Center for Atmospheric Research; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Royal Meteorological Society; Royal Society of the UK
SCIENTISTS VS. THE POWER OF ENTRENCHED WEALTH Thus the cause of the problem we face today in trying to convince our fellow citizens and our government of the nature and magnitude of the problem, and trying to urge our government to do the right thing with regard to climate change is similar to so many other issues that plague our country: the capacity of money to drown out science, and rational thinking in general.
Brian Fagan discusses in his book, “
The Great Warming – Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilization”, how a much
milder warming of the earth than we are now experiencing during the Medieval period of approximately 1000 to 1200 AD brought drought, with consequent mass deaths, war and the fall of civilizations. He warns that, notwithstanding the misery in which much of our world’s inhabitants currently live, the outlook for the future is far bleaker if nothing is done to substantially reduce the entry of greenhouse gas emissions into the earth’s atmosphere:
Computer models of future aridity resulting from the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are truly frightening. At present, extreme drought affects 3% of the earth’s surface. The figure could rise as high as 30% if warming continues, with 40% suffering from severe droughts, up from the current figure of 8%... The results implied that future changes in drought without anthropogenic warming would be very small indeed…
The United Nations Environment Program reports that 450 million people in 29 countries currently suffer from water shortages. By 2025, an estimated 2.8 billion of us will live in areas with increasingly scarce water resources… Contaminated water supplies are a worse killer than AIDS in tropical Africa… The number of food emergencies in Africa each year has already almost tripled since the 1980s… Future drought-related catastrophes will make these preliminaries seem trivial…
When one realizes that droughts in the sparsely inhabited Saharan Sahel claimed over 600,000 lives in the droughts of 1972-75 and again in 1984-85, one can only imagine what the magnitudes of these disasters would have been had farming populations been at today’s levels… Today, the number of people in the world who are highly vulnerable to drought is enormous and growing rapidly, not only in the developing world but also in densely populated areas such as Arizona, California and southwestern Asia… The droughts of the future will become more prolonged and harsher… Today, we are experiencing sustained warming of a kind unknown since the Ice Age. And this warming is certain to bring sustained drought… and water shortages on a scale that will challenge even small cities, to say nothing of thirsty metropolises like Los Angeles… Now we confront a future in which most of us live in large and rapidly growing cities, many of them adjacent to rising oceans and waters where Category 5 hurricanes or massive El Ninos can cause billions of dollars of damage within a few hours. We’re now at a point where there are too many of us to evacuate…
But maintaining the status quo suits the interests of wealthy and powerful people who are willing to say or do anything to increase their wealth and power. They may be dead by the time that the most catastrophic effects of global climate change come to pass. And even if they’re not, they may believe that they will be able to buy their way out of the disaster that is likely to befall so many of the rest of the world’s inhabitants.