The "Other" Supreme Court Justices

[Motown_Johnny]

http://origin.www.supremecourtus.gov/about/biographiescurrent.pdf



We already know that Stevens stuck it out until he was 90 but that seems to be unusual. I assume some of it was not wanting Shrub to name his replacement. Souter retired a few months before he turned 70 and O'Conner retired at age 76.

Ginsburg turned 77 last month and there are rumors that she will retire next year. Only rumors mind you but they are out there. If so that would make 3 Obama appointees in his first term. I will assume that there won't be any more until at least 2013.


Now let us assume that our President wins a second term.


Scalia and Kennedy were both born in 1936 and Breyer in 1938. So in 2013 Breyer will turn 75 and both Scalia and Kennedy will turn 77. (if my math is not in error)


I would like to pause here for a moment to point out that I wish them all good health and a long and happy retirement. I am just trying to guess when that retirement might start. With Souter leaving by age 70 and O'Conner at 76 isn't it possible that in this hypothetical 2nd term President Obama might get one or even two more chances to appoint a Supreme Court Justice? Scalia and Kennedy will both be over 80 before that term ends and even Breyer would be in his late 70's.


Might we not be looking at a 5 or 6 Justice "Obama Block" on the court for the next 20 years?


Speculation built upon Speculation, I know. Still, it is a happy thought. If we need something for our base to focus on might this not be it?

[usregimechange]

1. God that would be nice, and we need that second term

[SPedigrees]

2. God, I hope at least one of the conservatives retires during President Obama's term in office. nt

[fishwax]

3. I can't imagine Scalia or Kennedy retiring during Obama's term

Especially Scalia.

[yurbud]

4. Scalia looks like he's a couple of canolis from a heart attack.

[MajorChode]

9. I'd even buy them for him if that were the case

[tekisui]

5. I like this article.

Kennedy first, let's get that swing. Then, Obama replacing anyone on that conservative bloc, that makes me giddy.

[mr_liberal]

6. I doubt it.

My best guess is Ginsburg goes next and I hope its next year because Obama may not get reelected.

Then I dont see anyone likely to retire in his second term (except Ginsburg if she's still there).

Breyer and Kennedy are outside possibilities, Breyer moreso, but Id be surprised if either of them retired. Actually I think judges retiring in there 70s is more unusual than their 80s.

The President after Obama's second term will probably get Scalia, Kennedy and Breyer.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. I would refer you to posts numbered 7 and 8

average age seems to be 78.4

[Ozymanithrax]

7. The previous ten retiring judges...and their ages...

Sandra Day O'Connor, 75, Jan. 31, 2006
William Rehnquist, 80, Sept. 3, 2005*
Harry Blackmun, 85, Aug. 3, 1994
Byron White, 76, June 28, 1993
Thurgood Marshall, 83, Oct. 1, 1991
William Brennan, 84, July 20, 1990
Lewis Powell, 79, June 26, 1987
Warren Burger, 79, Sept. 26, 1986
Potter Stewart, 66, July 3, 1981
William Douglas, 77, Nov. 12, 1975

*Died while chief justice

It could be a while. Ginsberg has had health problems, but everyone else seems to be healthy and could serve many more years.

[dmr]

8. Based on those ages, the average retirement age is 78.4 years

I'm hoping we can get the court turned around to where it is fair and honest.
:hi:

[Motown_Johnny]

13. Why isn't Souter on that list?

http://origin.www.supremecourtus.gov/about/biographiescurrent.pdf

^snip^

Justice Souter retired from the Supreme Court on June 29, 2009.

[Jim Lane]

10. The total number of retirees doesn't matter. What matters is WHO retires.

The Court is very sharply divided right now. The longtime bloc of four liberals -- Souter, Stevens, Ginsburg, and Breyer -- has usually lost but can occasionally win over Kennedy. The liberals might be more likely to retire because they want Obama to pick their replacements. (Souter is known to have wanted to retire some years ago but held on to keep the seat out of Shrub's hands. Stevens will surely retire this year or next to make sure the appointment is by Obama, not by a possible right-wing 2012 victor.)

If Obama got to replace all four liberals, that would make less difference than if just one of the other Justices retired.

Of course, just as Souter was hanging on to thwart Bush, the conservatives will hang on to thwart Obama. We probably do need that second term.

[Motown_Johnny]

11. I know but I wasn't going there. All I addressed in my post was age