Financial Times: Are policymakers, economists and peak oilists starting to speak the same language?

[Subdivisions]

A rash of papers, comments and interviews have made us think this recently. It’s not as simple as ‘policymakers are waking up to peak oil’, but that all those groups — and indeed, industry — are increasingly talking about the same issues looming in fossil fuel production, even if they’re using different terminology.

It’s still the rare politician or industry executive who would use the phrase ‘peak oil’. But in the UK, a country for whom domestic oil production decline is very much a concern, the issue has become almost mainstream.

Chris Nelder has written a couple of posts this month about UK officials ‘waking up‘ to peak oil, which he says was generally considered a “tinfoil hat theory” just a few years ago. But we’d argue it goes further than that: at the same time, those who talk about peak oil are increasingly looking at the language and dynamics which these officials are interested in, namely the economics of supply and demand and of course, pricing.

Last month the country’s former chief scientist, Sir David King, co-authored a report saying that oil reserves had been overstated, and hinted that the IEA’s assessment was not completely objective, due to a need to keep its member countries happy. “It’s critically important that reserves have been overstated, and if you take this into account, we’re talking supply not meeting demand in 2014-2015,” he told the Telegraph.

Richard Branson, probably the UK’s most famous entrepreneur, spoke at the February launch of a new report by the UK Industry Task Force on Peak Oil, of which his UK trains company is a member. British energy minister Lord Hunt later met with the group to discuss what the government response should be.

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http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2010/04/21/are-policymakers-economists-and-peak-oilists-starting-to-speak-the-same-language/

[DJ13]

1. Be afraid if they team up

It means theres something in it to pad their bank accounts at the expense of the rest of us.

[Kalun D]

2. "Peak Oil" is a Phony Fabrication of Big Oil

Peak Oil is not as near as the industry insider Hubbert has led us to believe

ask yourself, why did we invade Iraq? To get more Iraq oil on the market? Or to get less Iraq oil on the market?

http://www.alternet.org/world/37371/

""Iraq has 74 known fields and only 15 in production; 526 known "structures" (oil-speak for "pools of oil"), only 125 drilled.""

Iraq represents the 2nd largest reserves in the world, if we are so close to peak oil how come it's not being tapped?

""we’re talking supply not meeting demand in 2014-2015""

how come the year keeps getting bumped out every 5 years or so? When Hubbert first said it wasn't it 1995?

[Subdivisions]

3. You have no idea what you're talking about. Overall oil production has been

declining since 2005 and light sweet (cheap) oil has already peaked. Yes, Iraq has oil. But it will never be enough to overcome declining production in the OECD and, once Saudi Arabia peaks (and there is evidence it already has), there will be no way Iraq, even at full blast production, will be able to raise world production levels to meet demand.

If you are going to deny that world oil production is peaking, then you have a LOT of research to do to prove it because, so far, you're showing just how little you know about the topic. You're the one denying that oil production is peaking therefore the burden of proof is on you to prove it and then tell the world. Perhaps you can begin by coming up with a production chart that shows that oil prodution is growing. I'll be waiting.

[Kalun D]

4. I asked first

how come they keep moving the peak date forward?

what was Hubbert's original peak date? Or did it get lost down the rabbit hole?