Crist To Decide Potential Indy Senate Bid On Thursday

[DCBob]

From TPM..

Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL), who is trailing in the polls for his Republican primary for Senate, has announced that he will decide on Thursday whether he will bolt the GOP and run as an independent. This is one day earlier than when Crist would legally have to make his decision, at the Friday filing deadline on Friday. From the Associated Press report: "Asked what's changed that's making him consider an independent run, Crist quietly responded that he didn't know."

more: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/04/crist-to-decide-potential-indy-senate-bid-on-thursday.php?ref=fpb

I think he is going indy and also think he is going to caucus with the Dems.. though I suspect he wont announce that. This is going to be fun to watch the GOPers and teabaggers go crazy.

[brooklynite]

1. Why would he caucus with the Dems?

I suspect his underlying vote base is Republicans, even if more moderate ones than the Tea Party Crowd. If he wins, it'll be with 30+% of the vote. Joing up with the Dems would only work if 1) he wan't to thumb his nose at the Republicans who jumped ship in the Primary, of 2) he has a solid deal with the Dem's to deliver real goodies in exchange for his vote (which will be nice to have, but isn't likely to be essential to keeping control of the Senate).

[DCBob]

2. Cuz by the time this nasty election is over his name will be mud..

among the GOP and he wont have a choice.

[brooklynite]

3. In which case he won't win...

If he can't hold onto a solid 25% Republican base (and then pickup 5-10% from conservative Dems or Independents) he won't have a chance.

[DCBob]

4. In a 3-way anything can happen..

Recent polling show Crist winning in a 3-way contest.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/15/politics/main6399577.shtml

[DonCoquixote]

5. He will probably win

One: while Kendrick Meek is truly the best of the three, our beloved Florida Democratic party (they whose ego trip caused the debacle of 2008) are not promoting him at all. Most of their ammo is going to trying to put Alex Sink in as Governor, a very worthy goal, but we should not let Meek hang for it.

Two: Meek is Black. There are a lot of people down here who want revenge for Obama both on the Teabagger crowd, and sorry to say, amongst the PUMA crowd which is also very prominent down here. Meek will be the whipping boy for Middle-aged Whites of both party stripes that are mad Obama won.

Three: Rubio is EXTREME. Even Blue Dog Democrats are scared of him, because they saw how the GOP threw Charlie under the bus. It also does not help that he reeks of Jeb Bush, who is still looked at as the main powerbroker in this state. Moderates see themselves as owing Crist for voting against SB six (aka the destroy teacher tenure bill so we can give the schools to our charters and churches)

Four: Sorry to fail to avoid race again, but Rubio is Cuban. He is of the old Cuban exile regime that the GOP used to flip the state to Republican. However, this year, that will be a disadvantage, as Crist will suddenly find himself the one "white" candidate running for office. Don't let the beaches fool you, Florida is still Dixie, and this year, many people are agitated.

Five: There are a lot of Moderates who are really hoping to make some sort of third party. They know they cannot kick the teabaggers out of the GOP, especially since here in Florida, the Teabaggers recruited people whose sentiments were "well if y'all did not let so many Yankees move here, we would'nt need no taxes!" Of course, the Moderates (who are often comprised of ex-yankees that moved down here to escape Northeast property taxes) get scared. They want a name, and Crist can give that to them.

Of course, as crazy as Rubio is, I cannot count him out. He is a stupid idiot that listens to what his higher ups tell him to do, in others words, W. with a Cuban Accent. Jeb of course, wants revenge, he is still not happy that after doing so much heavy lifting, he will be known as W's brother. I cannot sound enough danger alerts, because this fellow, should he get into the White House, will make W. look like Dennis Kucinich.

[Dappleganger]

6. You've explained it all rather well.