Arkansas Dem Primary Poll: Blanche Lincoln's lead down to single digits

[WI_DEM]

Democratic primary MoE 5%

Blanche Lincoln (D) 43 (45)
Bill Halter (D) 35 (33)
Other 7 (6)
Undecided 15 (16)

Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion among likely Democratic primary voters

Lincoln 59/33/8 (65/31/4)
Halter 66/14/20 (69/11/23)



A month ago, Lincoln had a solid 13-point lead, 44-31, that has been whittled down to eight points, and at 43 percent, Lincoln's chances of a 1st-round knockout are growing dimmer by the day. If neither candidate gets over 50 percent, there will be a three-week runoff, and the last thing Lincoln needs is to give Halter more time to close the deal. The trendlines are certainly not in her favor. And with her sleazy, negative attacks having less of an impact on Halter (down six net points in favorability) than on her (down eight), she's stuck in the mud.

Furthermore, African Americans now prefer Halter 39-31 over Lincoln, and Halter almost has parity among women -- losing that demographic to Lincoln by only 40-38. Lincoln's 17-point lead among men (47-30) is keeping her in the lead, and it's the one demographic that hasn't swung much in Halter's direction the past month -- it was 48-28 a month ago.

There are still over three weeks until the May 18 primary, Halter's current strategy is thus far doing the trick. And after last weekend's disastrous debate performances by Lincoln, it's obvious why she is refusing to do any more of them.

But Halter's advantages are even more obvious in the general election matchups:

Dem +/-
Blanche Lincoln (D) 42 (43) -10
John Boozman (R) 52 (50)

Bill Halter (D) 42 (41) -5
John Boozman (R) 47 (48)
www.dailykos.com

[sinkingfeeling]

1. Thanks. I intend to vote early, next week, for Bill Halter.

[AlinPA]

2. In watching Lincoln on CSPAN and TV interviews (here in PA), my opinion of her

has changed. She comes across as a phony Democrat, as she tries to appease the republicans-conservatives-teabaggers.