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I still say that the Democratic party today closely resembles the Whig party of the 1850's - the vacillation, triangulation, compromising, and failure to strongly confront the slave power. Similarly, Democrats today are failing to strongly confront the growing police state and corporate dominance over all things. The Whigs in the 1850's feared racist backlash, and so moderated their opposition to slavery and sought compromise, just as Democrats today fear right wing backlash and look for moderate potions and "work across the aisle" compromise. The Whigs saw their radicals - the Abolitionsists - as a liability, and spent as much time attacking them as they did the slave power. Similarly, Democrats spend as much or more time and energy attacking their radicals as they do attacking right wingers, and see their radicals - environmentalists, GLBTQ rights supporters, teacher unions and unions in general, women's rights groups - as a liability and a threat to their success and power.
However, I do not expect the Democratic party to disappear as the Whig party did, rather I think we are seeing a "switcheroo" taking place, as you say. The Democratic party may well be transfornming into the new conservative party, just as the Republican party did in the early 1900's. That would mean that the Republican party would probably disappear - 90% of their actual program having been adopted by the Democrats - and that some new left wing party would then emerge.
The survival of the Republican party is much more threatened by the Democrats replacing them that it ever was by the Democrats beating them. I think the party has gone for power over principle (not really a slam, since that is what politics is about and what almost all politicians do) and is well down the road now to replacing the Republican party. That leaves a vacuum on the left, of course. It was a risky move - gaining power by rallying the traditional Democratic party base and then moving dramatically to the right - but it was brilliantly executed and may well be successful. Take a handful of hot button "culture war" issues out of the mix, and the Democrats are now to the right of where the Republican party was 40 years ago.
I don't know what the Republicans can do now to get back in power - other than being an outlet for frustration by the public with the Democrats. There is not much room to the right of the Democrats to run on, and I don't think appeals to racism and bigotry are enough. The Democrats are so busy shoring up what they see as vulnerabilities - appearing weak on terror, soft on immigrants, favoring taxation, favoring public relief and welfare, being soft on "illegal immigrants" - that they may was well be Republicans now. The hyper=partisanship is a symptom that both parties are in trouble. Many people now will support or oppose the exact same policy based solely upon which party does it. For many Democrats, if Bush did it then it is bad, yet if Obama does the exact same thing, then it is good. For many Republicans, if Bush did it, then it was good, if Obama does the same exact thing, then it is bad.
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