Election 2010 predictions: Pffffttttttttttttttttttttt!

[Are_grits_groceries]

Trying to predict an over/under on this election would be as perilous as predicting and over/under on the amount of rain on election day.

There are too many moving parts.

In the last week there have been two events that have the potential to reshape a lot of races. The Arizona law signed by Governor Brewer and the Gulf oil tragedy. That's just in one week. Who knows what else will happen?

In addition, the anti-incumbent message has to be looked at carefully. There are some people in real trouble either because of votes or demographics or both. The Teashitters have thrown a huge wrench into the Rethug election plans. However, will the anti-incumbent translate to all. It may be that people are unhappy with your incumbent and not theirs.

This rush to judgment about a GOP tidal wave is premature IMHO. IF the Democrats will seize control of the messages NOW, they will have a much better chance. They cannot let the GOP wave become a foregone conclusion in the MSM. They have to push back hard to remind voters of the stakes and that the election isn't over.

Dems can't just rely on Rethugs to make muck things up and get nailed for it. They have to make it known and stick to them using super glue.

As it is, I have no idea how the election will play out. I don't even pretend to know. Only somebody with excellent polling in all districts who looks constantly may have a clue.

In the end even with all the major events, it will probably boil down to "How am I doing?" That may not be great, but it's getting better. Hope can be as powerful an emotion as fear.

Try to make the electorate see a hopeful future in many ways, and not fear it. Whatever happens, hang on for the ride.

[nc4bo]

1. Not to go OT but my Repub Faux News watching friend (the one I always refer in these types of posts)

said that on May 4th she's going to be voting straight Republican. I told her haven't been paying much attention to who's running (except for Cal Cunningham) and I'd better do some checking before Election Day gets here so I could be better informed on the candidates.

I told her so you'll not be voting any differently than you would any other time, right? No new surprises there.

For such an intelligent lady, teh stupid is strong in her.

The only thing that I honestly feel would influence most (not all) races would be low turn out on our part. Lots of people feeling beat up on, betrayed or forgotten about by the Dems right now.

I definitely agree that Dems need to better control their messages and must be much more aggressive in getting that message out or else there could be a problem.

It'll be an interesting season.