Turmoil in Iraq Threatens US Withdrawal Plans

[tekisui]

Source: Guardian

The continuing disputes over election results are creating a political vacuum likely to be filled by sectarians and terrorists.

Iraq continues to be embroiled in its messy post-election coalition-building process. It has become so messy that the US may well be rethinking its withdrawal plans, and particularly its withdrawal of all combat troops at the end of August.

In the past few weeks, amid a number of terror attacks, two key developments have taken place: an order by an electoral panel to have all the votes cast in Baghdad manually recounted; and a ruling that paves the way for banning some elected candidates because of their sympathies for the outlawed Ba'ath party.

Reports suggest at least two of these candidates won seats in the 325-member Iraqi parliament; both belong to the winning bloc of the Iraqi National Movement (INM), led by Ayad Allawi who won 91 seats, ahead of Nouri al-Maliki and his State of Law coalition's 89 seats. The banning of other INM elected members is also possible within the next couple of weeks.

Together, the recount and the ban, may give Maliki little more than three or four additional seats, making him the overall electoral winner. But many will question what difference it will make, since Iraq's supreme court has already ruled that it is the largest post-election parliamentary alliance, rather than the largest vote winner, that can form the next government.

Any changes in Maliki's favour strengthen his hand in his push to retain the premiership and have his State of Law coalition lead the next government. State of Law (and indeed, Maliki) will redeem the prestige lost when INM was declared the largest single bloc after the elections. In such a position, Maliki could also be more willing to negotiate with INM since he would rather Allawi and INM played second-fiddle to him (as runners-up) than the other way around.

Maliki has also reportedly encountered internal problems within his Islamic Dawa party, with some factions in the group opposing another tenure for him. Any changes in his favour would constitute a political boost and help to silence his critics.

(snip)

As a result of all this, a government is unlikely to be formed until August or perhaps even September, creating a vacuum that terrorists are all too happy to try to fill, and leaving the US with sufficient justification to alter its withdrawal plans.

more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/01/iraq-elections-allawi-maliki

[jaxx]

1. Last I heard withdrawal is on schedule.

[tekisui]

2. So far, Obama is sticking to his guns on this one.

I hope he continues to do so. This will certainly make it a harder decision to stick with. And, I am watching for the day when the generals say we need to rethink the deadline.

[tekisui]

3. Iraq civilian death toll rises sharply in April

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The number of civilians killed by violence in Iraq rose sharply in April from the month before, a sign that insurgents may be trying to exploit political tensions after an election that produced no outright winner.

A total of 274 civilians were killed by bomb blasts or other attacks last month, compared with 216 in March and 211 in February, government figures showed on Saturday. April's toll was a far cry from the dark days of all-out sectarian war in 2006/07 but remained high.

The rise in deaths occurred as Shi'ite-led factions try to overturn a slim, two-seat lead which a cross-sectarian alliance heavily backed by Iraq's Sunni minority holds after the parliamentary election on March 7.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/01/AR2010050100571.html

[kenny blankenship]

4. Ya gotta give it to him. It's only fair.

If Karzai can completely fake his election without repercussions, then Maliki gets to stuff and recount, stuff and recount, too. If Karzai got to stay out with his friends, then Maliki gets to stay out too. You can't give Karzai a brand new car to drive and then make Maliki drive some horrid 3rd hand clunker. Consistency is the spirit of fair play.

[proteus_lives]

5. We need to withdraw.

They're going to tear each other to shreds after but we need to withdraw.

[spanone]

6. the closer the end looms the more violence...you can bet on it

[Rex]

7. Oh Iraq is going to be a clusterfuck of Biblical proportions when we leave

but us staying won't solve any problem and will just make some worse. You cannot occupy a country forever, not possible. Time to leave and hopefully Iraq won't turn into a partisan bloodbath.