Worst Case Scenario: 100,000 BARRELS of Oil Leaking Daily

[tekisui]

Current Timeline to Shut Down Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill: Three Months

Source: Christian Science Monitor

By Mark Sappenfield, Staff writer / May 2, 2010

Federal officials speaking about the Gulf of Mexico oil spill Sunday morning appeared to be steeling the Louisiana coast – and the nation – for consequences that could be “catastrophic.”

The officials, who run the agencies charged with mitigating the impact of the spill on America’s Gulf coast, used unusually stark words to describe the situation and the difficulties of the remedy.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said it was the federal government’s job to “keep the boot on the neck of BP,” which is running the cleanup effort.

Coast Guard Commandant Thad Allen called the bid to shut down a wellhead spewing at least 210,000 gallons of oil a day from nearly a mile beneath the ocean surface “one of the most complex things we’ve every done.”

He went on to say that, in a worst-case scenario, the well could vent 4.2 million gallons of oil into the Gulf daily. Currently, a crumpled “riser” pipe is preventing the full flow of oil – like a kinked garden hose – though reports suggest it is gradually deteriorating.

more: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0502/Current-timeline-to-shut-down-Gulf-of-Mexico-oil-spill-three-months

[Statistical]

1. So where did you get 1 mil barrels daily from? Certainly not the article

Still the 4.2 million gallons a day quoted by Coast Guard would be off the charts. Given relief well will take 90 days that would over 370 million gallons. The Exxon Valdez for example was 11 million gallons.

[Skink]

2. You'd think they'd want to get the relief well up fast,

[Statistical]

5. Problem is that it takes a long time to drill miles into the earth.

You need to do it one pipe length at a time. Then drill bit wears out every couple miles and you need to pull the whole thing up (miles and miles of drilling string) and change out bit and put it all back into the earth before drilling again.

The relief well rig is in place and is already lowering riser pipe to ocean floor. The bad news is it simply takes a long time to drill that deep and drill rigs already work 24/7/365 so it isn't like you can "speed it up" with overtime or pushing the equipment.

[tekisui]

3. Doh! I got it from a wrong decimal place.

Fixing.:blush:

Thanks.

[AlphaCentauri]

4. IXTOC I, all over again

http://www.incidentnews.gov/entry/517477

The IXTOC I exploratory well blew out on June 3, 1979 in the Bay of Campeche off Ciudad
del Carmen, Mexico. By the time the well was brought under control in 1980, an estimated
140 million gallons of oil had spilled into the bay. The IXTOC I is currently #2 on the
all-time list of largest oil spills of all-time, eclipsed only by the deliberate release
of oil, from many different sources, during the 1991 Gulf War.

[Statistical]

6. Sad thing is this could have been avoided with couple million bucks in redundancy.

There is only a single blow-out preventer (BOP) a valve designs to close off the wellhead.

If it worked then there would be no leak but it failed. We don't know how/why it failed but it obviously failed.

Why doesn't the govt mandate 2 BOP to create a level of redundancy? Like 2 in-line valves that would both have to fail to allow free flow of fluid.

Also when the rig sunk it pulled on wellhead creating massive amount of strees.
Why not a third level of redundancy. A sensor, deadman switch that would jetison the riser pipe (which connected rig platform to ocean floor complex) and close both valves. In essence isolating the oil well from any dangers on the surface.

The govt needs to push for a much higher level of redundancy in safety equipment.