Economists' consensus estimate for Friday's jobs report: +175,000 jobs in April

[scheming daemons]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36927899

March was +160,000.


Keep this up for 5 more months, and November will look better and better for the Democrats.

[TexasObserver]

1. recommend

[jtuck004]

2. This is good, but the numbers may not stick...

A full 1/3 of the March increase was temporary employment from the Census, which is why the U6 unemployment rate increased. And we may see that increase again in April, even if U3 goes down. U6 is going to decimate our economy.

I think Census employment will account for a good portion of the next 2-3 months (maybe half of this one) and those jobs will fall off before November, (some as short as 6 weeks) so there better be something else waiting in the wings, or we could see 11 or 12% going into those last couple of months...

And if the "capping" strategy doesn't work at Deepwater, and they have to drill another well to collapse the first one, there is going to be a very large employment and industry deficiency from that.

We really need them to ramp up the effort to encourage job creation well beyond where we are.

[scheming daemons]

3. You are right, but also misleading

Yes 1/3 of the March increase was the census.... but 2/3 of it was from the private sector.


Also... the U6 unemployment rate did NOT increase in March, it stayed the same. That's a lie.

[jtuck004]

4. Not misleading, just deeper than the headlines...it did increase

Actually, it did increase. And taking a Pollyanish view of job creation will only hurt us. The work force increased
Civilian labor force
153,512 Feb
153,910 Mar

So 398,000 _new_ people entered the labor force, either working or looking. 160000 jobs were created. Approximately 105,000 (2/3, from above) were full-time. Another 53,000 got part-time, many of which were related to the census, which is publicly available informaiton. That leaves 240,000 people to stand in unemployment lines or be one of the 6, or 12, or 50 people applying for each job opening. And...wait for it...the increase in those who worked at least an hour but needed more.

U6 Chart: http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

U6 article: http://portalseven.com/blog/2010/04/02/march-unemployment-rate-holds-steady-at-9-7-but-u6-rate-ticks-up-to-16-9/

And while it is true that of the 160K about 105K are considerd full-time, but many are, by and large, just fodder for the casino of finance and a little part of their wealth will be shaved from the top and given to the small percentage of people who own most of the wealth in this country. On the other hand, jobs which create wealth offer real opportunity to move that wealth to others.

March stats

•162,000 jobs were added
•15,000 construction jobs were added < Some wealth creation here, but mostly if commercial building
•17,000 manufacturing jobs were added < Wealth Creation Here

•82,000 service providing jobs were added < Paid for by someone else's labor
•09,000 retail trade jobs were added < Paid for by someone else's labor

•11,000 professional and business services jobs were added < Most paid for by someone else's labor
•45,000 education and health services jobs were added < Paid for by someone else's labor
•22,000 leisure and hospitality jobs were added < Paid for by someone else's job

•39,000 government jobs were added < Paid for by someone else's labor
Professional services contributed 11,000 jobs to the plus side, but 40,000 of them were part-time jobs!

From: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/jobs-increase-by-136000-unemployment.html

But perhaps we are using different math...