Daily Kos
Gulf Gusher -- how bad can it be?by mwmwm
Tue May 04, 2010 at 10:32:22 AM PDT
...From the bottom of an article in the San Francisco Chronicle:
The Deepwater Horizon well is at the end of one branch of the Gulf Stream, the famed warm-water current that flows from the Gulf of Mexico to the North Atlantic. Several experts said that if the oil enters the stream, it would flow around the southern tip of Florida and up the Eastern Seaboard.
As bad as the oil spill looks on the surface, it may be only half the problem, said UC Berkeley engineering Professor Robert Bea, who serves on a National Academy of Engineering panel on oil pipeline safety.
"There's an equal amount that could be subsurface too," said Bea, who worked for Shell Oil Co. in the 1960s when the last big northern Gulf of Mexico oil well blowout occurred. And that oil below the surface "is damn near impossible to track."
Ack!
Displayed in NOAA's "Projected Gulf Loop Current, Today + 144 Hours," we see surface forecasting (but not, of course, subsurface forecasting) that graphically demonstrates how the currents are likely to flow. Notable is that subsurface water also flows as a current, but a different one, with many layers moving at different speeds, often in different directions.
Gaah!
From an AP story two days ago:
Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanography professor at Florida State University, said his examination of Coast Guard charts and satellite images indicated that 8 million to 9 million gallons had already spilled by April 28.
"I hope I'm wrong. I hope there's less oil out there than that. But that's what I get when I apply the numbers," he said.
Alabama's governor said his state was preparing for a worst-case scenario of 150,000 barrels, or more than 6 million gallons per day. At that rate the spill would amount to a Valdez-sized spill every two days, and the situation could last for months.
From the end of an article today from the Minnesota Post:
he oil is "capable of significant damage, particularly when it is churned up with water and forms a sort of mousse that floats and can travel long distances," it said.
Come mid-summer, what's left of that slick is almost sure to overlap with the dead zone (already existing at the base of the Mississippi) — which can shift to and fro in the Gulf, Gulliver said.
No one knows the full measure of the damage such a grim union could cause. When it comes to environmental problems, one plus one doesn't always add up to two. The sum can be much larger as combinations of factors give rise to new problems.
Human-caused Dead Zone + Human-caused Oil Slick = Human-caused Horror.
A leaked non-public intra-government report, from a few days ago:
A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.... "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."
... BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead.
Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP.
"The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, it's eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouguet, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration...
MUCH MORE WITH LINKS:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/4/863384/-Gulf-Gusherhow-bad-can-it-be
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