I'm retracting my guess that the would-be bomber had help from Tehreek-e-Taliban.

[Robb]

Here's why: North Waziristan.

Word is our would-be Times Square bomber said he received training this year in North Waziristan.

Same place Najibullah Zazi (pleaded guilty in February in a plot to bomb New York subways) said he was trained.

Now Zazi's marching orders came from Saleh al-Somali, who is Al-Qaeda. Not Tehreek-e-Taliban, a murky distinction perhaps but critical to make. TeT are headquartered in South Waziristan.

In North Waziristan, we have the Haqqani network, Hafiz Gul Bahadar's people, and Abu Kasha.

Haqqani's made it quite clear they're staying in-country, even willing to switch sides to rub out the competition (local thugs). Bahadar's mostly taken the same tactic, at least in public, distancing himself from the limelight but still working to keep Taliban moving in the same direction (and you think it's hard to unite Democrats??).

In my mind this leaves Abu Kasha, an Iraq-born Al Qaeda who works out of Mir Ali, an oft-targeted village in North Waziristan. It is much more likely Faisal Shahzad was helped, if indeed he was, by Kasha and thus Al Qaeda. Same as Zazi.

[nickinSTL]

1. seems to me they didn't help him very well

if he had help.

The bomb was beyond amateurish, from what I've read. I think you could get plans to do better than that on the Internet (though I've never looked and have no desire to do so).

[Robb]

3. Yes and no.

I frankly don't understand the meme that the bomb was amateurish. It was crude, and it didn't go off as hoped. That describes half the bombs left around in Belfast in the 1970s.

He had everything he needed, and bunged it up somewhere between the clocks and the pressure cooker stuffed with M-80s. We got lucky, IMO.

[nickinSTL]

9. the fertilizer was non-explosive

the fertilizer used was not ammonium nitrate, and therefore would not have exploded AND he left his freaking house keys in the SUV.

In addition to the bomb-making materials found in the Pathfinder -- which included gasoline, propane tanks, fireworks and non-explosive fertilizer -- investigators found a set of keys, one of which opened Shahzad's Connecticut home.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/05/04/new.york.car.bomb/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

Sounds amateurish to me.

[Warpy]

2. Funny, because the Pakistanis had him leaving a month after he arrived

but he was absent from the US for an additional five months.

My own best guess is that he met some hamfisted radicals in Pakistan who put him in touch with the people in Yemen responsible for the Great Balls O'Fire bomber.

You've got to notice the remarkable similarities in effectiveness.

[Robb]

4. If he was headed into the tribal areas

...He'd get an exit stamp in a city, then step off the bus and get in a van headed north.

[Warpy]

5. Jumping out of a jetliner?

I don't think so.

[Robb]

6. No, just never get on.

Not complicated, or even particularly daring if you pay the right people.

Edited to add: his family's in Peshawar.

[blogslut]

7. Yeah

I can dig it. The Tehreek-e-Taliban thing just seemed cheesy.

[Robb]

8. They may have gotten wind of something being up

...and launched a little PR campaign for themselves, I suppose.

The problem with my little theory is that no one else in the jihadi community has stepped forward. I would think Abu Kasha would want credit, Al Qaeda usually seem to.