Poll gives Charlie Crist 6-point lead over Rubio

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Gov. Charlie Crist has spent the past few months battling Republican Marco Rubio, but if Crist wants a seat in the U.S. Senate, he might want to focus on Democrat Kendrick Meek.

A Mason-Dixon poll released Thursday has Crist leading Florida's three-way race by 6 percentage points, but analysts warn his advantage is as tenuous as a soap bubble.

Crist is drawing much of his support from Democrats and African-Americans, two groups that might abandon him once they become familiar with Meek, a congressman from South Florida.

Meek, a former state legislator and member of the U.S. House, is still unknown by about 40 percent of likely voters. Pollster Brad Coker said as Meek's profile rises, Crist will pay the price.

"When you see that more than half of Crist voters are Democrats, that's a big red warning sign," Coker said. Crist's support, he wrote in his analysis of the poll, could collapse like "a proverbial house of cards."

Overall, Thursday's poll has Crist at 38 percent, Rubio at 32 percent and Meek at 19 percent. Those results are consistent with two other recent polls and offer a bit of good news to Crist, a candidate who was plummeting in the GOP primary.


http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/os-senate-florida-poll-20100506,0,1491281.story

It seems the most likely outcome is either a Rubio or Crist win. Meek can take enough votes from Crist to elect Rubio. I don't see how he catapaults both of them.

What is a liberal to do?


My state can not send a TEABAGGER to the United States Senate. It just can't.

[bluestateguy]

1. Meek is just as his name describes

Meek.

Lightweight.

He gives off that Mondale/Dukakis vibe. Can't quite put my finger on it.

[DearAbby]

2. Quite a heavy finger there

I think you put your finger on it. Meek needs to become more aggressive.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. The Problem Is The Better Meek Does The Better Rubio Does

Because they are splitting the anti-Teabagger vote.

[Bitwit1234]

3. Better keep an eagle on the electronic voting machines

and see what kind of crap they pull. The republicans in control of Florida always manage to put their man in, by hook or crook.

[Dawgs]

5. 32 percent for the republican's "rising star" is very encouraging.

On the down side, why are Dems having a hard time finding good candidates?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. There Aren't Many Dems In FL With Statewide Recognition Or Popularity

And Charlie Crist scared away most of the opposition.

[KharmaTrain]

7. November Is Light Years Away...

We're already seeing a wind shift as the teabagger 15 minutes appears to have peaked too soon...and this race demonstrates how it will damage the rushpublicans more than the Democrats. Without them Crist would have a strong double-digit lead...Meeks would be far in his dust no matter how popular or unpopular Democrats in general were. It looks like we've seen a massive reshuffle as Rubio sucked up the 30% or so far right/teabagger vote...30% overall but a majority within the rushpublicans that forced Crist and a good number of moderates into a middle 30%...including a good number of real independents and conservative Democrats who could be the real swing in this election...it's why we saw a drop in Meeks numbers and gave Crist the bump in the three-way race.

Yes, it is a sticky wicket, but consider this seat would have been Crist's had the GOOP not imploded and Meeks has turned out, so far, to be a poor candidate. I think the one thing that supporters of both candidates have is a total digust for Rubio and as the election nears I expect one candidate (Crist) to break out...more as the anti-Rubio than who they are.

The saving grace is the way the national GOOP is burning its bridges with Crist...not just pushing him under the bus but building a station atop of him. I know there are who think Crist is such a weasel that he would end up caucusing with the rushpublicans, but I don't see this happening. First, I don't see Democrats losing the 10 seats that would put them in the minority, thus it would be foolish for Crist to caucus with the minority and get little power or perks as opposed to hanging with the Democrats. It's the reason Joementum doesn't bolt.

Cheers...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. But The Scary Thing Is Rubio Can Still Pull It Out

~

[KharmaTrain]

9. If The GOOPers Stay Energized...

Personally I don't see Rubio as being a very smart candidate. His recent misstep pissing off his own base about support of the AZ Papers Please law also had the backlash effect of pissing off any Hispanic base that he has. Yes, Rubio can win if Crist and Meek evenly split the vote, but I don't see that happening. To date his campaign has been almost non-existant and the Crist/Rubio rivalry has all but buried him.

The key here is how energized the rushpublicans can stay. They've been amped up since the day President Obama took the oath and I'm starting to see some fatigue setting in. The teabagger movement was a ploy that goons like Armey and Rove hoped could generate some kind of momentum but its turned against them by allowing the Paulbots and LaRouchies to mess things up...I think we saw their "mojo" peter out after the HIR bill passed...and their momentum has been muted since. The rise in the violent rhetoric is symbolic of their desperation...caged animals...still dangerous, yet caged.

The "pundits" need to talk up a hot election...it draws ratings to their cable food fights, eyes to their blogs and columns and donations to their political coffers. By Crist going independent, the "fun" of a nasty primary won't happen...the game doesn't really begin until the run-up to the general after Labor Day. I'm not sure Meeks will be in the picture by then. I hope I'm proven wrong.