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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:39 AM
Original message
Scientists Criticize Government's and BP's Response to Spill, and Told Not to Come
Size of Spill Underestimated, Scientists Say

But scientists and environmental groups are raising sharp questions about that estimate, declaring that the leak must be far larger. They also criticize BP for refusing to use well-known scientific techniques that would give a more precise figure.
The criticism escalated on Thursday, a day after the release of a video that showed a huge black plume of oil gushing from the broken well at a seemingly high rate. BP has repeatedly claimed that measuring the plume would be impossible.
The figure of 5,000 barrels a day was hastily produced by government scientists in Seattle. It appears to have been calculated using a method that is specifically not recommended for major oil spills.

Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University who is an expert in the analysis of oil slicks, said ........ the leak could “easily be four or five times” the government estimate, he said.

“The government has a responsibility to get good numbers,” Dr. MacDonald said. “If it’s beyond their technical capability, the whole world is ready to help them.”

Scientists said that the size of the spill was directly related to the amount of damage it would do in the ocean and onshore, and that calculating it accurately was important for that reason.


BP has repeatedly said that its highest priority is stopping the leak, not measuring it. “There’s just no way to measure it,” Kent Wells, a BP senior vice president, said in a recent briefing.
Yet for decades, specialists have used a technique that is almost tailor-made for the problem. With undersea gear that resembles the ultrasound machines in medical offices, they measure the flow rate from hot-water vents on the ocean floor. Scientists said that such equipment could be tuned to allow for accurate measurement of oil and gas flowing from the well.

Richard Camilli and Andy Bowen, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, who have routinely made such measurements, spoke extensively to BP last week, Mr. Bowen said. They were poised to fly to the gulf to conduct volume measurements.
But they were contacted late in the week and told not to come, at around the time BP decided to lower a large metal container to try to capture the leak. That maneuver failed. They have not been invited again.

snip

Dr. MacDonald and other scientists said the government agency that monitors the oceans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, had been slow to mount the research effort needed to analyze the leak and assess its effects. Sylvia Earle, a former chief scientist at NOAA and perhaps the country’s best-known oceanographer, said that she, too, was concerned by the pace of the scientific response.

But Jane Lubchenco, the NOAA administrator, said in an interview on Thursday: “Our response has been instantaneous and sustained. We would like to have more assets. We would like to be doing more. We are throwing everything at it that we physically can.”

The issue of how fast the well is leaking has been murky from the beginning. For several days after the April 20 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig, the government and BP claimed that the well on the ocean floor was leaking about 1,000 barrels a day.

A small organization called SkyTruth, which uses satellite images to monitor environmental problems, published an estimate on April 27 suggesting that the flow rate had to be at least 5,000 barrels a day, and probably several times that.
The following day, the government — over public objections from BP — raised its estimate to 5,000 barrels a day. A barrel is 42 gallons, so the estimate works out to 210,000 gallons per day.
BP later acknowledged to Congress that the worst case, if the leak accelerated, would be 60,000 barrels a day, a flow rate that would dump a plume the size of the Exxon Valdez spill into the gulf every four days. BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, has estimated that the reservoir tapped by the out-of-control well holds at least 50 million barrels of oil.

snip

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14oil.html?hp


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Deep13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
1. Hmmm. 1 rec. + my 1 rec. = 1 rec. nt
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:54 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. thanks
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donheld Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
29. Hmmm. 1 rec. + my 1 rec. + my 1 rec = 48
:woohoo:
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ensho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:52 AM
Response to Original message
2. they should be inviting the scientists to help


men are territorial. always afraid some other man, men are going to pee on their territory.

and the oil keeps rolling out

the Gulf Stream and the oil are seeking each other (and have probably found each other by now)
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. yes, but instead, they told the experts in this that they're not welome
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. They told the experts
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skeptical cynic Donating Member (404 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. "government and industry experts"
"Experts" whose behavior they can control or predict.
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Echo In Light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Precisely
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #10
23. independent
expert scientific input not so much
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Karenina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 05:46 AM
Response to Reply #23
32. Here come the scientists!!!
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. "a professor of physics at Washington University" Hint:
Industry experts doesn't mean they work for the oil companies.

Scientists have expertise in various industries.


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skeptical cynic Donating Member (404 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Yes they do.
And funding from those industries, as well.

Is anyone surprised when a scientist who receives funding from the fossil fuel industries adopts a skeptical stance in relation to climate change? When a scientist who receives funding from tobacco smokes and denies the harm done to health by tobacco? When a scientist funded by Monsanto defends GMO organisms?

The experts I'm referring to right now are scientists from who study deepsea vents and have instrumentation capable of giving a very accurate estimate of real discharge rate. BP has told them they are "not needed."

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10757157/1/bp-faces-scrutiny-on-oil-spill-estimate.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:21 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. +1
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-10 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #14
40. Universities receive significant research funding from the government.
They are not industry people.



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Control-Z Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 01:34 PM
Response to Reply #2
12. There may be some territorial reasons
for refusing scientific help, but I honestly believe that $$ is the compelling factor. BP is not approaching this from an environmental standpoint, but from a business one. Any (credible) invited scientist would be approaching this disaster with humanity's, not BP's, profit and loss in mind.
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blindpig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. That's exactly it.

Capitalism or Nature, ya can't have both.

Sounds less and less like hyperbole, huh?

k&r
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. thanks, Blindpig
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. "$$ is the compelling factor" sad truth
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Uncle Joe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
4. Get the scientists to help, this is vital information.
Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, amborin.
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. thanks, Uncle Joe
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Xipe Totec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
8. BP Told me not to come...
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #8
20. lol
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Overseas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 01:38 PM
Response to Original message
13. K&R. //nt
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #13
21. thanks
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Lorien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
16. Fuck. K & R.
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. thanks
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joeybee12 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
24. How nice that we couldn't trust the Bush government to level with us..
...and now??????
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 04:36 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. we're in the same boat
new boss...same as the old boss
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Wouldn't that phrase make a good
Song or something?


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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. i guess
Edited on Fri May-14-10 06:34 PM by amborin
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-14-10 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
28. So how long would that take to deplete?
Edited on Fri May-14-10 11:40 PM by intheflow
Edited for poor math skills. Someone help me figure this out. I get about 2.3 years. :shrug:
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #28
35. don't know; 50 million barrels divided by up to 60K barrels a day?
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 12:33 AM
Response to Original message
30. Update: "rising chorus demanding...independent investigation"
Independent Inquiry Into Oil Spill Is Urged


snip

A rising chorus of experts is demanding ..... an independent blue-ribbon commission to investigate the gulf spill.

The government’s main effort to get at the root causes of the April 20 oil rig explosion and spill is led by a six-member Board of Inquiry that has been holding hearings this week in Kenner, La.
Working in a bland hotel reception room, it has been questioning witnesses about the actions of every entity connected to the accident, from BP to Transocean to the Coast Guard to the Minerals Management Service, which both advances and regulates offshore drilling. But three of that panel’s members work for the minerals service, and the other three work for the Coast Guard.

Democratic lawmakers have introduced parallel measures in the House and the Senate proposing that a distinguished independent commission investigate the spill. And experts with long experience in investigating accidents are echoing their calls, saying that however honest or well-intentioned each internal investigator may be, no agency can effectively judge its own role in contributing to an accident.

Senator Robert Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey and a sponsor of the Senate bill, said if the investigation is left to the agencies themselves, crucial information might be “withheld, skewed or destroyed before the public can consume it.”

snip

The Coast Guard and the minerals service “have a vested interest in how this comes out, in terms of what it does to their reputation and perhaps their own future,” said Steven B. Wallace, an aviation safety consultant.
“This is such a colossal event, with such economic and social impact, that perhaps it would be appropriate to look at a commission of unimpeachable credentials, more unimpeachable for their integrity than their technical expertise,” he said.

Representative James L. Oberstar, chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, expressed a similar view of the Board of Inquiry’s role. “There has to be something else,” he said. “On the face of it, this does not appear to be appropriate.”

snip

Giving Mr. Babbitt further perspective, he served as secretary of the interior, the parent of the minerals service. “We’re never going to really get lasting and important change without the president appointing a national commission, which needs to be a mix of experts, of industry people and of regulators,” he said.
Dan W. Reicher, a staff member on the Kemeny Commission and later an assistant energy secretary, said one lesson from his role in that inquiry was that “we can’t rely on agencies investigating themselves.”

A federal agency charged with regulating safety and health generally doesn’t have the independence from its day-to-day operations to fully investigate a major accident at a facility it oversees,” Mr. Reicher said.

A senior Congressional investigator who asked not to be named because his committee does not have jurisdiction over oil spills said the BP case cried out for an independent investigator for yet another reason. “Somebody ought to be freezing the evidence right now,” he said.


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/15/us/politics/15inquire.html?ref=politics


***************************************************************

Interior Dept Let BP drill with No Permits, and No Environmental Impact Studies:

and new drilling permits issued since the spill:


Aside from allowing BP and other companies to drill in the gulf without getting the required permits from NOAA, the minerals agency has also given BP and other drilling companies in the gulf blanket exemptions from having to provide environmental impact statements.

snip

Tensions between scientists and managers at the agency erupted in one case last year involving a rig in the gulf called the BP Atlantis. An agency scientist complained to his bosses of catastrophic safety and environmental violations. The scientist said these complaints were ignored, so he took his concerns to higher officials at the Interior Department.

“The purpose of this letter is to restate in writing our concern that the BP Atlantis project presently poses a threat of serious, immediate, potentially irreparable and catastrophic harm to the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and its marine environment, and to summarize how BP’s conduct has violated federal law and regulations,” Kenneth Abbott, the agency scientist, wrote in a letter to officials at the Interior Department that was dated May 27.

The letter added: “From our conversation on the phone, we understand that M.M.S. is already aware that undersea manifolds have been leaking and that major flow lines must already be replaced. Failure of this critical undersea equipment has potentially catastrophic environmental consequences.”

Almost two months before the Deepwater Horizon exploded, Representative Raúl M. Grijalva, Democrat of Arizona, sent a letter to the agency raising concerns about the BP Atlantis and questioning its oversight of the rig.

After the disaster, Mr. Salazar said he would delay granting any new oil drilling permits.

But the minerals agency has issued at least five final approval permits to new drilling projects in the gulf since last week, records show.

snip

new drilling permits issued since the spill:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/national/14agency/4_APD-Query-Search-Results.pdf
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/us/14agency.html?pagewanted=2&ref=politics
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 01:41 AM
Response to Original message
31. leak could possibly be 60,000 barrels a day
and the deposit contains approx 50 million barrels
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glowing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 06:34 AM
Response to Original message
33. They don't want a real estimate.. It would cost them more.
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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #33
36. exactly
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intheflow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-16-10 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #33
39. BP actually said that in another NYT article today:
BP has resisted entreaties from scientists that they be allowed to use sophisticated instruments at the ocean floor that would give a far more accurate picture of how much oil is really gushing from the well.

“The answer is no to that,” a BP spokesman, Tom Mueller, said on Saturday. “We’re not going to take any extra efforts now to calculate flow there at this point. It’s not relevant to the response effort, and it might even detract from the response effort.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/us/16oil.html


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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 06:57 AM
Response to Original message
34. There will be a conspiracy between BP and Obama's peeps to hide
as much as possible from the public.

Simple reason, neither party looks good on this.

The President has no interest in people knowing the truth that his Interior Secretary authorized a project forgoing environmental impact statements that is destroying the Gulf of Mexico.

This is very similar to Mr. Obama's behavior with Tim Geithner and his role in AIG at the FRBNY. It is nothing new for the administration.

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amborin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #34
37. that sums it up
and the Fed audit was quashed, right? or at least gutted....

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Swamp Rat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-15-10 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
38. k&r
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