one that should be illustrated in this: BP and many other oil companies are getting desperate to find new oil sources, sources that are getting harder to find, harder to extract, and harder to refine.
While this oil spill is a horrible it is only a part of an increasing problem that has been increasingly recognized worldwide as perhaps the worse crisis of our time, the end of cheap oil and cheap energy.
Recently, the United States Military released a report stating that the world will face severe oil shortages, of as much as 10 million barrels a day, by 2015.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supplyI haven't seen this mentioned on DU, but the report is saying that world production peak is either imminent, or already happened, and that a gap between demand and supply will be created by 2012, with increasing shortages occurring after this point.
70% of all oil consumed in the world today come from oil fields that were discovered before 1970, fields that today are either already peaked, in over 50 countries, or are about to peak in oil production. This field in the Gulf of Mexico that's leaking now is estimated to be big, by today's standards, but its literally a drop in the bucket in size compared to the fields discovered previous to 1970, by factors of a 100 or more.
So what does this mean for us? Well, our politicians, including Obama, are silent on this issue for a very simple reason, there's no upside. We have 5 years, max, to prepare for this crisis, and frankly that's not enough time. Obama and others tout energy independence in the country that consumes 25% of all oil produced in the world, daily. However, they don't mention the most obvious solution that is needed to alleviate our dependence on oil, conservation and economic contraction.
Alternative energy production could help cushion the blow, to a certain extent, by helping wean us off of fossil fuels for electricity production, but when it comes to portable fuel, we have absolutely NO alternatives to cheap oil and the liquid fuels derived from it. Not to mention we don't have suitable alternatives to agriculture that isn't dependent on the chemicals and fuels derived from both oil and natural gas.
The oil shortage is a problem of scale, we rely on a single source of energy for most of our economic activity, for production of food, plastics, fuel, heating our homes, creating medicine and many other things, and for transporting all of them to our stores. What will life be like in 10 years after this crisis hits?
Well, increased unemployment, food prices will spike, as will gas prices, more banks will go under, economic activity on all levels will decrease, this will either be a depression or, more likely, at least at first, a permanent or prolonged recession. I think I forgot to mention the famine and starvation in even western nations, remember we rely on oil to produce our food, the Green Revolution relies on industry powered by oil. Less oil means less food.
Honestly, I don't exactly know what we can do to prevent this catastrophe from happening, increasing oil exploration off the coasts isn't a solution, there's not enough oil there to make a difference, and it will take decades to develop properly. The same for all possible solutions, we simply don't have the time to implement them before the crisis takes place.
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