Worst case scenario: How long will the Gulf gusher take to deplete if unstopped?

[intheflow]

According to the NYT, oil could be gushing at 60,000 gallons of oil per day. The tapped reserve may hold up to 50 million gallons. Now my math isn't too good, but this is what it looks like to me:

50,000,000 total underground gallons
÷
60,000 gallons a day
=
833.333 days until well depletion


833.333 days
÷
365 days
=
2.29 years


Is my math right? Could this go on for over two years? :scared:

[Oregone]

1. Or there could be more oil down there than we can dream of

Who knows....maybe we aren't in the high gas price supporting crisis that many believe. Maybe we are being lied to and the fucker will leak for the next 100 years


I like to make shit up...so you know...forget about me

[NYC_SKP]

2. Check your math, and don't mix up gallons with barrels.

From your NYT link:

"...A small organization called SkyTruth, which uses satellite images to monitor environmental problems, published an estimate on April 27 suggesting that the flow rate had to be at least 5,000 barrels a day, and probably several times that.

The following day, the government — over public objections from BP — raised its estimate to 5,000 barrels a day. A barrel is 42 gallons, so the estimate works out to 210,000 gallons per day.

BP later acknowledged to Congress that the worst case, if the leak accelerated, would be 60,000 barrels a day, a flow rate that would dump a plume the size of the Exxon Valdez spill into the gulf every four days. BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, has estimated that the reservoir tapped by the out-of-control well holds at least 50 million barrels of oil. ..."

:patriot:

[intheflow]

4. I said my math sucked. Is this more accurate?

50,000,000 barrels = 2,100,000,000 gallons

2.100,000,000 gallons
÷
60,000 gallons a day
=
35,000 days until well depletion


35,000 days
÷
365 days
=
95.89 years until well depletion


Oh we are so fucking screwed as a planet.

[kristopher]

6. 50M barrels / 60K barrels

= 833 days.

[smalll]

3. Why can't they just sink something REALLY big and heavy over the problem? Like oil tanker size?

Fill up some oil tanker or other large, modern cargo-bearing ship with deadweight, and then sink it over the leaks? Look, the seabed is not solid, is it? It's mud essentially. Sink something huge and massive like that at a good clip, surely it will stop the flow - at least to give them the few months needed to drill a new hole to ease the pressure. Any seepage would be minimal around the sunken tanker over a couple months, at least, one should think.

[SlipperySlope]

9. 5000 PSI will find a way out - N/T

[Motown_Johnny]

18. won't is slow (or even stop) once the pressure drops (in a year) ?

[Lasher]

10. BP doesn't want to stop it except as a last resort.

They want to capture the oil and keep it coming.

[ladjf]

16. That's an idea that seems worth considering. nt

[tcaudilllg]

5. I'm betting this is the end of offshore drilling

At least for a while.

[Karenina]

7. I'm bettin this is the end of the Florida Everglades.

[aquart]

8. That's the more likely one.

Has a terrorist ever done as much harm?

[Karenina]

12. Ecocide... BP in the Gulf

Depleted Uranium in Iraq? :evilgrin:

[AllentownJake]

11. Probably longer than that

Like any leak in something, there is a period where the leaking material comes out fast due to pressure than a period where it leaks slower.

Good news is it won't leak at this rate forever. Bad news is it will leak till the pressure is relieved.

[craigmatic]

13. It seems like there ought to be a way we can clean the spill up and still use the oil.

Why hasn't anybody created a method for this yet?

[Karenina]

14. Try this...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x465315

or this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/37154096#37154096

or this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/vp/37159349#37159380

[Jamastiene]

15. NG was saying it could be years.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8341169&mesg_id=8341169

I say just until the Earth stops hemorrhaging and the "blood" clots; however long that is. In the meantime, every-fucking-thing within that area will die an agonizing death.

I still say that picture making the rounds on Facebook with the caption, "How's that drilly spilly thing workin out for ya?" is the best I've seen yet.

[Are_grits_groceries]

17. My math:

Approximately 1B barrels of oil in the oil field. I think that's a very low estimate.

It flows at a rate of 50K barrels per day. (Who knows?)

All I can say is GAH!

20000 days or approximately 50 years.

[FBI_Un_Sub]

19. The underlying assumptions are WRONG

It is not the volume of oil in the reservoir that is the driving force of an oil well. It is the internal pressure - in the reservoir - that is forcing the oil out.

(I aced "Geology for Engineers 101" ;-) and my Dad started out as a Geological Engineer ;-) )